Bucs at Vikings Depth Chart Preview 2023
Sept 9, 2023 13:07:46 GMT -6
Reignman and Funkytown like this
Post by Danchat on Sept 9, 2023 13:07:46 GMT -6
Football is back, and so are Depth Chart Previews! Let's dig straight into it!
Line: MIN -5 (58% on bets on Vikings)
SuperSim Calculated Line: MIN -1
Injury Report
Vikings
OLB Davenport - Questionable
Bucs
DT Kancey - Questionable
RG Mauch - Questionable
*My Thoughts*
On paper, the Bucs look better than expected, and even my simulator thinks the Bucs are even with, or even better than the Vikings talent-wise. However, there are several factors that prohibit me from picking the upset. One of them is coaching, as Todd Bowles has consistently not been able to win games in the NFL or get more out of his players compared to other coaches, and O’Connell has been a huge positive so far.
Another is the QB. Baker Mayfield is plain bad, and has been given more than enough chances already. He was a trainwreck in Carolina despite being healthy, and played like a backup after he was axed and signed with the Rams. He’s not set up well with a great OL and run game like he had in Cleveland, as the Bucs have the least talented RB room in the NFL. White is a scatback who is effective running between the tackles, and while UDFA Sean Tucker might, you could say that about any UDFA.
Evans and Godwin are still very good receivers, but Baker has tanked the fantasy value of similarly good WRs before thanks to his poor accuracy and seeming lack of chemistry with his targets. I like Trey Palmer as a sneaky DFS pick, but it’s hard to trust him to produce this early in his career. Otton was a starter as a 4th rounder TE which was more due to no competition, and he caught a bunch of Brady checkdowns last year. Perhaps he can take a step forward here, but he’s not daunting for our defense to cover.
On the OL, Tampa has a stud in Wirfs who is moving from RT to LT. The rest are a mixed bag – Feiler had been a solid starter for years but his play took a dive last season and he’s close to falling into Below Average territory. Hainsey had a successful rookie season, playing close to Bradbury’s 2022 campaign according to PFF. That’s far more impressive for your first year rather than your fourth. Mauch is a nice prospect but it’s hard to know if he’ll be any good out of the gate. I would be very concerned about Goedeke, who was a 2022 2nd rounder who was straight-up bad at RG and is getting moved to RT, usually viewed as a more difficult position. Flores should have Hunter go after him and profit.
Defensively, there are remnants from Tampa’s 2020 Super Bowl run that could make them an above average unit, but I have concerns about their ability to rush the passer. Much of this hinges on the Kancey pick, as if he can live up to his Aaron Donald-lite billing, they could be a dangerous unit. Outside of him there is Vita Vea, a monster in run and pass rushing, and a lot of question marks. Hall had an awful rookie year, while Gholston’s long run in the NFL as a quality run stuffer is nearing its end. Edge rusher Shaq Barrett has also had a great career, but is coming off an Achilles rupture from last October, so it’s hard to expect him to be the same guy he was (and he's 33). Tryon-Shoyinka has been a 1st round bust so far, and the backups aren’t inspiring either.
They do have quality LB/CB/S units, though. Lavonte David had another great year at 32 and is showing no signs of stopping, while PFF curiously hates Devin White the past 3 years. He’s not quite as bad as the ratings state, but he is a liability in coverage. Dean and Davis form a quality CB pair (I believe the longest tenured #1/2CB in the league?), though their nickel CB is a question mark. Winfield Jr. is a beast like his dad, and they also landed Ryan Neal on the cheap despite having a breakout campaign in Seattle. Tackling should not be a weak point for them.
Prediction: Vikings 27, Bucs 20
While Tampa's roster is better than expected, the Vikings are far better in the QB and HC department. Their defense is threatening, but I think they're outmatched in the passing game as I don't think they'll get enough pass rush sending 4 guys. And if they send blitzes, good luck covering JJ, Hock, KJ, and Addison!
I was planning to make this a 10 point win, but the combination of the Bucs being better than expected and our innate ability to never win by 2+ scores leaves this at yet another one score win.
Any thoughts?
Line: MIN -5 (58% on bets on Vikings)
SuperSim Calculated Line: MIN -1
Injury Report
Vikings
OLB Davenport - Questionable
Bucs
DT Kancey - Questionable
RG Mauch - Questionable
*My Thoughts*
On paper, the Bucs look better than expected, and even my simulator thinks the Bucs are even with, or even better than the Vikings talent-wise. However, there are several factors that prohibit me from picking the upset. One of them is coaching, as Todd Bowles has consistently not been able to win games in the NFL or get more out of his players compared to other coaches, and O’Connell has been a huge positive so far.
Another is the QB. Baker Mayfield is plain bad, and has been given more than enough chances already. He was a trainwreck in Carolina despite being healthy, and played like a backup after he was axed and signed with the Rams. He’s not set up well with a great OL and run game like he had in Cleveland, as the Bucs have the least talented RB room in the NFL. White is a scatback who is effective running between the tackles, and while UDFA Sean Tucker might, you could say that about any UDFA.
Evans and Godwin are still very good receivers, but Baker has tanked the fantasy value of similarly good WRs before thanks to his poor accuracy and seeming lack of chemistry with his targets. I like Trey Palmer as a sneaky DFS pick, but it’s hard to trust him to produce this early in his career. Otton was a starter as a 4th rounder TE which was more due to no competition, and he caught a bunch of Brady checkdowns last year. Perhaps he can take a step forward here, but he’s not daunting for our defense to cover.
On the OL, Tampa has a stud in Wirfs who is moving from RT to LT. The rest are a mixed bag – Feiler had been a solid starter for years but his play took a dive last season and he’s close to falling into Below Average territory. Hainsey had a successful rookie season, playing close to Bradbury’s 2022 campaign according to PFF. That’s far more impressive for your first year rather than your fourth. Mauch is a nice prospect but it’s hard to know if he’ll be any good out of the gate. I would be very concerned about Goedeke, who was a 2022 2nd rounder who was straight-up bad at RG and is getting moved to RT, usually viewed as a more difficult position. Flores should have Hunter go after him and profit.
Defensively, there are remnants from Tampa’s 2020 Super Bowl run that could make them an above average unit, but I have concerns about their ability to rush the passer. Much of this hinges on the Kancey pick, as if he can live up to his Aaron Donald-lite billing, they could be a dangerous unit. Outside of him there is Vita Vea, a monster in run and pass rushing, and a lot of question marks. Hall had an awful rookie year, while Gholston’s long run in the NFL as a quality run stuffer is nearing its end. Edge rusher Shaq Barrett has also had a great career, but is coming off an Achilles rupture from last October, so it’s hard to expect him to be the same guy he was (and he's 33). Tryon-Shoyinka has been a 1st round bust so far, and the backups aren’t inspiring either.
They do have quality LB/CB/S units, though. Lavonte David had another great year at 32 and is showing no signs of stopping, while PFF curiously hates Devin White the past 3 years. He’s not quite as bad as the ratings state, but he is a liability in coverage. Dean and Davis form a quality CB pair (I believe the longest tenured #1/2CB in the league?), though their nickel CB is a question mark. Winfield Jr. is a beast like his dad, and they also landed Ryan Neal on the cheap despite having a breakout campaign in Seattle. Tackling should not be a weak point for them.
Prediction: Vikings 27, Bucs 20
While Tampa's roster is better than expected, the Vikings are far better in the QB and HC department. Their defense is threatening, but I think they're outmatched in the passing game as I don't think they'll get enough pass rush sending 4 guys. And if they send blitzes, good luck covering JJ, Hock, KJ, and Addison!
I was planning to make this a 10 point win, but the combination of the Bucs being better than expected and our innate ability to never win by 2+ scores leaves this at yet another one score win.
Any thoughts?
... and neither is this Chris guy.