Why the Vikings Can Win Every Game – Week 1 vs Buccaneers
I think Alexander Mattison needs to dominate this game.
I don’t mean in a run out the clock with the lead sort of way, he actually has to impact the game. Look at it this way, which combination of 2 players are more threatening to a defense?
Justin Jefferson + TJ Hockenson
OR
Alexander Mattison + Josh Oliver
This isn’t a trick question or anything, it’s obviously Jefferson and Hockenson. Every team knows this and will game plan for it. If I were the Bucs, and the Vikings came out with Hockenson, Oliver and Mattison, I’m staying in nickel defense. Cousins to Jefferson, Hockenson, and either Osborn or Addison looks like a far more dangerous threat than any ground game in the NFL.
Bucs Defense vs Vikings Offense
I view the safety position as their biggest strength with Antoine Winfield Jr and Ryan Neal coming off a good year. Their corners are passable, but it’s the safeties that will need to be in the right place to cover multiple WR route combos.
If safety is their strongest position, LB Levonta David is the most interesting, PFF says David was their best player last year. But David is just one guy and he’s 33 years old, he’s not going to defend the entire defensive front himself, especially if he’s facing Josh Oliver or a guard coming to the second level on a regular basis. The Bucs D line doesn’t move the needle much putting eve more pressure on the LBs in run defense, so they don’t change this balance.
The entire Vikings offseason offense seemed to revolve around using Josh Oliver to bully teams out of nickel defense.
The Bucs have: veteran safeties that could function in base defense and a defensive front that could use the support. If the Vikings can’t bully this Bucs team out of their nickel coverage, who can they threaten?
This brings me back to why Mattison has to dominate. You, me, the Bucs and everybody know Cousins to Jefferson is the engine that drives the offense, they have to take that seriously. Even though I just said the Bucs might have the personnel to try base defense, that doesn’t mean they HAVE to. Defending Jefferson first and seeing if David can hold up in the run game seems the their best path to victory - then, only change things up if they start to get gashed.
Against this middle of the road defensive line and so much focus on the passing game, my benchmark for Mattison is 5.0 yards per carry. Better would be 5.6 yards per carry, matching his efficiency in a 20 carry, 112 yard performance against a much better 2020 Seahawks defense. (Note, I’m looking at YPC, 13 carries for 70 yards would be just fine).
Note: if the Vikings plan to keep the Bucs in base defense works, and Cousins eviscerates the Bucs in the passing game I will ignore Mattison’s stats count that as dominating. But that would be a different kind of surprise.
Bucs Offense vs Vikings Defense
I think the Vikings defense needs to make the Bucs run game look bad.
When I look at the Buccaneers offense, there are holes all over the place. In 2022 they had the most passing attempts in the league, 40 more pass attempts than 2nd place. That approach makes sense when their plan was ride or die with Tom Brady’s last season. That plan can’t translate because giving the most pass attempts in the league to Baker Mayfield (or Kyle Trask) is not a good idea; a QB starting for his 4th team in 20 games with a handful of DNPs is not an recipe for success.
The problem is, they can’t rely on the run because, in 2022 they were worst in the league in terms of both total rush yards and yards per carry. Normally I don’t care much about last year, but with over 1/3 of their salary cap tied up in dead money (most in the league), the Bucs didn’t have the resources to upgrade their offense. So it’s still Rachaad White and his 3.7 ypc leading the way – this time without the thread of the best QB of all time helping open up running lanes. One rookie guard from North Dakota doesn’t change much.
The Bucs offensive line doesn’t look good. Even if the Vikings pass rush looks great, I’m not going to get excited until week 2. And scheme driven pressure doesn’t rely on one athlete beating another, so the athlete advantage the Vikings have with Hunter and Davenport might be modest. And if the Vikings do bring pressure, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are good enough WRs to exploit holes in the secondary.
Since Evans and Godwin are legit, it seems logical to take them away and make the Bucs rely on their run game. Normally I am fine with giving up some yards on the ground in favor of taking away a team’s top receiver(s), but I’d be less happy with that trade off in this game. The Bucs rushing offense looks so anemic that if they start breaking off some chunk runs, it will be alarming no matter the final score. Even if the Vikings win, if the Bucs do better than 90 yards on 20 carries on the ground, I’ll consider that a bad omen.
Bottom Line
The Vikings are one of the biggest favorites in the league for week 1, and the Bucs have all the hallmarks of a team that’s tanking the season for a high pick to get a new QB. No game in the NFL is ever a gimmie, number say the Bucs still have a 1/3 shot to win, but there are multiple paths to victory for the Vikings.
I don’t mean in a run out the clock with the lead sort of way, he actually has to impact the game. Look at it this way, which combination of 2 players are more threatening to a defense?
Justin Jefferson + TJ Hockenson
OR
Alexander Mattison + Josh Oliver
This isn’t a trick question or anything, it’s obviously Jefferson and Hockenson. Every team knows this and will game plan for it. If I were the Bucs, and the Vikings came out with Hockenson, Oliver and Mattison, I’m staying in nickel defense. Cousins to Jefferson, Hockenson, and either Osborn or Addison looks like a far more dangerous threat than any ground game in the NFL.
Bucs Defense vs Vikings Offense
I view the safety position as their biggest strength with Antoine Winfield Jr and Ryan Neal coming off a good year. Their corners are passable, but it’s the safeties that will need to be in the right place to cover multiple WR route combos.
If safety is their strongest position, LB Levonta David is the most interesting, PFF says David was their best player last year. But David is just one guy and he’s 33 years old, he’s not going to defend the entire defensive front himself, especially if he’s facing Josh Oliver or a guard coming to the second level on a regular basis. The Bucs D line doesn’t move the needle much putting eve more pressure on the LBs in run defense, so they don’t change this balance.
The entire Vikings offseason offense seemed to revolve around using Josh Oliver to bully teams out of nickel defense.
The Bucs have: veteran safeties that could function in base defense and a defensive front that could use the support. If the Vikings can’t bully this Bucs team out of their nickel coverage, who can they threaten?
This brings me back to why Mattison has to dominate. You, me, the Bucs and everybody know Cousins to Jefferson is the engine that drives the offense, they have to take that seriously. Even though I just said the Bucs might have the personnel to try base defense, that doesn’t mean they HAVE to. Defending Jefferson first and seeing if David can hold up in the run game seems the their best path to victory - then, only change things up if they start to get gashed.
Against this middle of the road defensive line and so much focus on the passing game, my benchmark for Mattison is 5.0 yards per carry. Better would be 5.6 yards per carry, matching his efficiency in a 20 carry, 112 yard performance against a much better 2020 Seahawks defense. (Note, I’m looking at YPC, 13 carries for 70 yards would be just fine).
Note: if the Vikings plan to keep the Bucs in base defense works, and Cousins eviscerates the Bucs in the passing game I will ignore Mattison’s stats count that as dominating. But that would be a different kind of surprise.
Bucs Offense vs Vikings Defense
I think the Vikings defense needs to make the Bucs run game look bad.
When I look at the Buccaneers offense, there are holes all over the place. In 2022 they had the most passing attempts in the league, 40 more pass attempts than 2nd place. That approach makes sense when their plan was ride or die with Tom Brady’s last season. That plan can’t translate because giving the most pass attempts in the league to Baker Mayfield (or Kyle Trask) is not a good idea; a QB starting for his 4th team in 20 games with a handful of DNPs is not an recipe for success.
The problem is, they can’t rely on the run because, in 2022 they were worst in the league in terms of both total rush yards and yards per carry. Normally I don’t care much about last year, but with over 1/3 of their salary cap tied up in dead money (most in the league), the Bucs didn’t have the resources to upgrade their offense. So it’s still Rachaad White and his 3.7 ypc leading the way – this time without the thread of the best QB of all time helping open up running lanes. One rookie guard from North Dakota doesn’t change much.
The Bucs offensive line doesn’t look good. Even if the Vikings pass rush looks great, I’m not going to get excited until week 2. And scheme driven pressure doesn’t rely on one athlete beating another, so the athlete advantage the Vikings have with Hunter and Davenport might be modest. And if the Vikings do bring pressure, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are good enough WRs to exploit holes in the secondary.
Since Evans and Godwin are legit, it seems logical to take them away and make the Bucs rely on their run game. Normally I am fine with giving up some yards on the ground in favor of taking away a team’s top receiver(s), but I’d be less happy with that trade off in this game. The Bucs rushing offense looks so anemic that if they start breaking off some chunk runs, it will be alarming no matter the final score. Even if the Vikings win, if the Bucs do better than 90 yards on 20 carries on the ground, I’ll consider that a bad omen.
Bottom Line
The Vikings are one of the biggest favorites in the league for week 1, and the Bucs have all the hallmarks of a team that’s tanking the season for a high pick to get a new QB. No game in the NFL is ever a gimmie, number say the Bucs still have a 1/3 shot to win, but there are multiple paths to victory for the Vikings.
