Upcoming Vikings Extensions

I wanted to go through the big upcoming extensions the team has to deal with yet this year or next. This can help everyone to see why it looks like the Vikings will have a lot of cap space next year, but in reality it is not that much. Here is a quick look at the projected cap space for the Vikings the next few seasons according to OTC. I put in my best guess at what the Hunter contract looks like to better estimate the next couple year's cap space.



First, lets look at the biggest elephant in the room that is the JJ extension. I have given this a few different attempts, but I think below is a best case scenario from all sides.

This ends up being a 4-year extension with a new money total value of $130m. It will include $75m in full guarantees on the extension itself, and another $22m in guarantees from existing salaries in 2023 and 2024. This means he will be just shy of $100m in full guarantees at signing with nearly $60m in cash paid to him by the end of the 2024 season before the extension even kicks in. I marked his 2026 salary as fully guaranteed at signing, however, I could see the Vikings making that a vested guarantee that becomes guaranteed in spring of 2025 making it practically guaranteed. Either way, his salaries for the next 4 years will end up being guaranteed if I had to guess. This also means by the end of the 2026 season JJ will have been paid just shy of $100m in cash. This is right on par with Tyreek and Davante's contracts as they currently sit. The big difference is JJ will get that $60m in the first 2 years, while Tyreek and Davante both sit around $50m in the first 2 years, and were both coming off their 2nd contract, not their rookie deal.

JJ Before


JJ After



To put all the numbers from this contract into perspective, here are the rankings for each of the 4 main categories we look at this contracts. The $35m signing bonus is also #1 for a WR.

Total Value: $152m - #1 (Davante Adams would be #2 at $140m, but that was a 5-year extension not the 4-year projected here for JJ.)
Average Annual Value: $25.3m for 6-year/$32.5m for 4-year extension - #1 (Tyreek would be #2 at $30m)
Total Guarantees: $97m - #1 (Kupp sits at $75m in total guarantees.)
Full Guarantees: $97m - #1 (This is the new #1 by far. Second is AJ Brown with just over $56m in full guarantees.)

Vikings Cap Post JJ Extension


Okay, moving on to a TJ extension, that gets a bit more complicated in my opinion. This isn't because the team and TJ don't want to do it, it is because the TE market is a bit weird. When you have Kmet getting a $50m extension after not really doing much, and the big explosion in the WR market but nothing even close to it for TEs, you can have a lot of differing views on what an extension should look like. Below is my best guess, and something that I think would appeal to TJ in making him a top paid TE while also giving the Vikings some flexibility.

We are giving TJ a 4-year $65m total value extension. This is done with a $19m signing bonus, that includes $4m as a salary conversion for 2023. A fully guaranteed $10m salary in 2024, a partially guaranteed salary in 2025, and a $5m roster bonus that becomes guaranteed at the start of the 2025 offseason. This brings his total new money full guarantees to $27.5m and his practical guarantees to $37.5m. This will slightly lower TJ's cap hit this year (less than $1m), and keep his cap hits within reason for a couple years before they have to make a decision in 2027.

TJ Before


TJ After


TJ Contract Ranks
Total Value: $74.3m - #2 (Top spot is Kittle at $75m)
Average Annual Value: $14.9m (full contract)/$16.3m (extension) - #3/#2 (Waller is #1 at $17m and Kittle is at $15m)
Total Guarantees: $41.8m - #1 (Kittle is the current #1 at $40m)
Full Guarantees: $36.8m - #1 (Pitts is #1 at just shy of $33m, Andrews is #2 at just over $30m)

Vikings Cap Post TJ Extension


Finally, lets move to 2024 and look at a Darrisaw extension. The only complication here is they almost assuredly will pick up his 5th year option prior to any extension next year. I am guessing at what that will be, but it is a very educated guess looking at what Tristan Wirfs 5th year option looked like. Wirfs went to multiple pro bowls prior to his 5th year being exercised, and best case scenario for Darrisaw is 1 pro bowl. That brings his 5th year down a little bit from what Wirfs is at over $18m.

I gave Darrisaw a 5-year extension totaling $120m in new money. This includes a $20m signing bonus, $12m, $15m, $15m, $20, and $25m base salaries. I also added some roster bonuses for the 2027 through 2029 seasons. The contract comes with $47m in full guarantees for the new money (another $20m in full guarantees from the existing contract). If you add in the roster bonus for 2027 as it is practically guaranteed, the contract is guaranteed to pay him $70m by the end of the 2027 season. That might seem a hair low, but in reality that is a 3-year $70m deal if you start with his 5th year option year. Tunsil signed the highest AAV deal for a LT this year at 3yrs $75m.



Darrisaw Contract Ranks

Total Value: $139.5m - #1 (Trent Williams is currently #1 at $138m)
Average Annual Value: $19.9m (full contract)/$24m(extension) - #5/#2 (Tunsil is #1 at $25m, 3 others, including the recent Andrew Thomas contract, are in the $23m range)
Total Guarantees: $79.5m - #2 (Ronnie Stanley is #1 at $70.9m)
Full Guarantees: $66.5m - #2 (Thomas is #1 at $67m)

Vikings Cap Post Darrisaw


As you can see, these contracts are not small ones, and are going to impact the cap space this team has greatly for years to come. If these contracts are all able to get done in this rough manner, the team would have its star WR, TE, LT and RT all under contract through the 2026 season. I would also anticipate an extension/rework of O'Neill's contract next offseason to keep him here another year or two and lower his cap hit in 2024. The other option to improve the cap situation in 2024 is a rework of Harrison Smith's deal. He is set to count over $19m against the cap in 2024 and over $22m in 2025. If they are able to redo that deal so it is more of a 2-year 20-25m deal, that would help the cap a lot.

The only other extension candidates this year or next are Ezra Cleveland and KJ Osborn. The issue with Osborn is more than likely he is going to warrant a 15m+ per year contract after this season, if he plays as well as we expect him to. That is just too rich for a team already paying JJ and TJ a combined $50m in AAV. Ezra is a hard one all around. There are times he looks like a solid well rounded LG, then other games he looks like a bottom 5 player at the position. If he has a really good year in 2023, I could see them trying to resign him, but it could be very costly after recent guard extensions in the NFL are pushing 15-20m in AAV. That is hard to justify with a $20m+ RT and LT.

In the end, I would not expect anything crazy free agency wise in 2024, but look out in 2025 when, depending on the exact terms of some of these extensions and restructures, the team could have as much as $100m in cap space to work with. Don't forget, both Hunter and Davenport are scheduled to be FAs next year now. I will be a little shocked if they don't resign at least 1 of them so they are not starting from scratch at EDGE when they are also more than likely looking at a new starting QB.

Thanks for reading this (way too) long post, that will probably be proven wrong within the next couple weeks when JJ signs his extension. Contract numbers and how various things affect the cap are super interesting to me. If people like this kind of thing, I might try to take this to the next level and predict other restructures, extensions, and FA signings a full year out for the 2024 season!