Are the Vikes contenders?

The "midpoint" statement is what I'm highlighting here. I'll agree with Vegas and say 11.5 is a pretty good win projection for the Chiefs. And I'll take it a step further and say, if the Chiefs end up within 1.5 game of that, I'd say it was pretty accurate.

The +1.5 side of that would put the Chiefs at 13-4. If I projected the Chiefs at 13 wins, nobody would bat an eye because Mahomes.

The -1.5 side of that would be 10-7. The same +/- 1.5 games, but 10-7 puts the Chiefs fighting for a 6 or 7 seed. The Bengals, Ravens, Dolphins, Jets and Bills all look like really strong, 10+ win wild card teams (plus 2 division winners). If the Chiefs are on the minus side 11.5 +/- 1.5, suddenly their week 18 game @chargers might be a win and in / lose and out game for those two teams. So me saying "the Chiefs could miss the playoffs" is basically just a reminder that both the + and - of a +/- 1.5 game swing are possible.

This is true of the Vikings competitors in the NFC as well. The Eagles, 49ers, Cowboys all play each other. A very normal minus side of +/- 1.5 games on any of those teams are outside looking in. Lots of very normal stuff could do that: one injury, an unexpected upset, a division rival being better than people think (Commanders).

If the Vikings can develop 2-3 good defenders out of Evans, Booth jr, Blackmon, Asamoah, Cine, and Roy, they are well positioned to take advantage of the normal stuff that happens in an NFL season.

Or the Lions finish on the - side because they're a bunch of undisciplined maniacs and the Vikings win the North by multiple games.