Long-term plan at LB?

Immediately after the 2023 NFL Draft, the Minnesota Vikings signed a horde of undrafted free agents (UDFAs), including Ivan Pace Jr. from Cincinnati. They gave him $236,000, which was tied for the fifth-most out of all UDFAs this year. It was a part of the Vikings’ spending spree on UDFAs. They gave edge rusher Andre Carter II $340,000, a massive guarantee for an undrafted player, and handed out a league-leading $1.15 million in total guarantees to UDFAs.

Pace played his final college season at Cincinnati after transferring from Miami (OH). Many pundits considered him to be a draft-worthy prospect. He was ranked 151st on Arif Hasan’s Consensus Board, which is solidly in the fifth-round range. Pace was a very productive player in his final season, recording 136 total tackles, 20.5 tackles for loss, and nine sacks as a senior. He also wasn’t that old of a prospect considering that he was a fourth-year senior. Therefore, age does not explain Pace’s fall. He is younger than all of Minnesota’s draft picks except Jordan Addison and DeWayne McBride.

Pace’s fall in the draft is likely because he’ll have to change his role in the NFL. While he played most of his snaps off the ball, and ostensibly played middle linebacker for the Bearcats, that listing belies his role. Pace rushed the passer on most of his snaps and often lined up three yards off the ball. Cincinnati played a three-down defense with no edge rusher, and Pace was primarily the fourth pass rusher on the defense. However, that style isn’t prevalent in the NFL, and Pace’s size (5’10 1/2″ and 231 lbs. with 30 1/4″ arms) doesn’t lend itself to being a true pass rusher at the next level.

From an athletic testing standpoint, Pace performed decently. His 4.62-second 40-yard dash is not as fast as some of the game’s freak athletes at the linebacker position, but it’s still more than adequate. Eric Kendricks played with great range in his prime, and he ran a 4.61. Pace’s 35″ vertical and 9’8″ broad jump are not elite for the position, but are certainly adequate. His size mostly drags down his RAS score. Pace cannot change his height, but at 231 lbs. he is actually a fairly dense player for his size. The NFL is also trending towards lighter LBs than the 250 lb. players who were common in the mid-2000s. For example, the Denver Broncos took Drew Sanders in the third round, and he only weighs 235 lbs. At 6’4″, he’s almost 6” taller than Pace, and Pace is a much denser player than Sanders.



With Pace’s size limitations and likely role change in the NFL, I watched his college tape to see how he might fit in Brian Flores‘ defense. I was able to watch his entire 2022 season, excluding Cincinnati’s bowl game.

Let’s dive into the scouting report...

SUMMARY
Ivan Pace Jr. is an electric player who consistently plays with a high level of energy and effort. In his primary role as a pass rusher, he showed an excellent get-off and a variety of moves to beat opposing linemen. At the NFL level, Pace’s size will limit his pure pass-rush potential, but he has good experience as a blitzer and on stunts.

In run defense, Pace will take on players who are much larger than him with violent hands. He has a number of tactics to disengage but will become overpowered if he has to hold his ground against blockers. Pace ends up on the ground often as he tries to explode past blocks but loses his balance. This frequently results in him redirecting the flow of plays, so it’s not the end of the world. He reads plays well, following pullers and often finding the correct gaps. Pace works through traffic to get to the ball carrier with ease and has sideline-to-sideline speed. Because of his lack of size, he will too often try to cheat gaps and end up leaving holes for the runner. He shows the ability to wrap and tackle, but inconsistencies led to a high number of missed tackles.

In pass coverage, Pace excelled as a QB spy, tracking down scrambling QBs and earning pass deflections. He is a work in progress in other areas and lacks experience in anything but basic zones. He shows the ability to cover RBs in the flats, and he will carry opposing players to the second level. Pace can read and follow the QB’s eyes to the ball, but he can also be duped and manipulated by the QB. When targeted, he shows an understanding of where to put his hands based on his positioning and earned a pass deflection.

VIKINGS FIT
For the Vikings, it’s clear to see the role that Ivan Pace Jr. can earn early in his career. As a blitz package player and QB spy, Pace fits neatly into Flores’ defense in the Odd Mac 0 package and with the overload blitz schemes. A proficient pass rusher who has the chops to take on opposing linemen, but maybe not every play, Pace could be a great asset as a blitzer.

To earn that role, Pace will likely need to contribute on special teams while he learns a more traditional off-ball LB position. He will need to improve his tackling to make it on ST. The standard position he may eventually play with the Vikings will require him to play one to two yards further off the ball, and ask him to be more consistent in reading his keys and playing assignment sound. He should also progress as a pass coverage player as time goes on.