Post by Reignman on Jul 8, 2023 17:42:03 GMT -6
Sometimes I stumble onto some interesting tids when researching other things, or I'll hear something in a podcast, or what someone else writes, or see a tweet, and it sparks a little curiosity (happens a lot on YT). Things that lead me down a rabbit hole, or aren't answered to my satisfaction, or need more context. Maybe someone is just flat out wrong. The Rams Greatest Show on Turf never broke the '98 Vikings scoring record Mackey! So quit repeating it lol.
I like those little moments of inspiration TBH. Oooo that is interesting, and now I need an answer. It's like a statistical treasure hunt. They're not quite big enough themselves to produce an entire topic over, but others might find it interesting, so why should the YT comments section get all the glory xD? That's what this thread is about. Just little statistical drive-by's. Feel free to post your own.
Today's drive-by was inspired by Purple Daily and their recent "Deepest Minnesota Vikings offense since 1998?" video. They and Andy from Purple FTW Podcast provide a lot of my inspiration these days xD. Along with their comments section.
It got me thinking about how offense has evolved a lot since 1998 (a quarter of a century ago), and left me wondering what kind of numbers the 2023 Vikings would have to produce to give us the same wow factor as the '98 Vikings. *spoiler alert* 556 points just isn't going to cut it.
I took the NFL 5 year per game average over the last 5 years, and applied it to the NFL per game average from '98, with an additional game, and here's what I come up with ...
643 points, 7301 yards (5203 passing and 2128 rushing) <--- what the 2023 team has to achieve
556 points, 6264 yards (4328 passing and 1936 rushing) <--- 1998 Vikings
Those seem like mind bending numbers, if not unreasonable, but adjusted for offensive inflation (+ one extra game), those are the exact same stat lines. That's how much the game has changed. That would be a record for points (606 - '13 Broncos), and 3rd most total yards in NFL history (7474 - '11 Saints, and 7317 - '13 Broncos). Keep in mind, those teams achieved those records with just a 16 game schedule too.
FWIW: Based on their season averages, had the '98 Vikings played 17 games ... they would've reached 591 points, 6655 yards (4599 passing and 2057 rushing).
But there you go, to achieve '98 status, the 2023 Vikings have to score 643 points. I'll eat my shorts if they even sniff 443 xD. It also puts into perspective just how impressive that '98 offense was, in case you forgot. They put up the equivalent of 643 points and 7300 yards by today's standards.
And if I plug ol Randy Wade Cunningham into my QB Inflation Calculator, here's what his '98 numbers translate to in 2022:
2022 was a down year too as far as inflation goes. His numbers would've been even better in 2020.
Now I need a WR Inflation Calculator to see what Moss' numbers would've looked like today. I'll do a back of the envelope calculation ...
<a few moments later>
1998 Moss (69 catches 1313 yards (19.03 avg) and 17 TD's), would've had 86 catches for 1478 yards (17.19 avg) and 18 TD's by 2022 standards. That's 87 catches 1512 yards (17.38 avg) and 21 TD's by 2020 standards.
2022 JJ (128 catches 1809 yards (14.13 avg) and 8 TD's), would've had 102 catches 1599 yards (15.68 avg) and 7 TD's by 1998 standards.
Now who wants to fight me to the death over my flawless methodology?
I like those little moments of inspiration TBH. Oooo that is interesting, and now I need an answer. It's like a statistical treasure hunt. They're not quite big enough themselves to produce an entire topic over, but others might find it interesting, so why should the YT comments section get all the glory xD? That's what this thread is about. Just little statistical drive-by's. Feel free to post your own.
Today's drive-by was inspired by Purple Daily and their recent "Deepest Minnesota Vikings offense since 1998?" video. They and Andy from Purple FTW Podcast provide a lot of my inspiration these days xD. Along with their comments section.
It got me thinking about how offense has evolved a lot since 1998 (a quarter of a century ago), and left me wondering what kind of numbers the 2023 Vikings would have to produce to give us the same wow factor as the '98 Vikings. *spoiler alert* 556 points just isn't going to cut it.
I took the NFL 5 year per game average over the last 5 years, and applied it to the NFL per game average from '98, with an additional game, and here's what I come up with ...
643 points, 7301 yards (5203 passing and 2128 rushing) <--- what the 2023 team has to achieve
556 points, 6264 yards (4328 passing and 1936 rushing) <--- 1998 Vikings
Those seem like mind bending numbers, if not unreasonable, but adjusted for offensive inflation (+ one extra game), those are the exact same stat lines. That's how much the game has changed. That would be a record for points (606 - '13 Broncos), and 3rd most total yards in NFL history (7474 - '11 Saints, and 7317 - '13 Broncos). Keep in mind, those teams achieved those records with just a 16 game schedule too.
FWIW: Based on their season averages, had the '98 Vikings played 17 games ... they would've reached 591 points, 6655 yards (4599 passing and 2057 rushing).
But there you go, to achieve '98 status, the 2023 Vikings have to score 643 points. I'll eat my shorts if they even sniff 443 xD. It also puts into perspective just how impressive that '98 offense was, in case you forgot. They put up the equivalent of 643 points and 7300 yards by today's standards.
And if I plug ol Randy Wade Cunningham into my QB Inflation Calculator, here's what his '98 numbers translate to in 2022:
YEAR PLAYER TM GS W- L- T CMP ATT PCT YDS AVG TD TD% INT INT% RATING REIGN SK RUSH YDS AVG TD FUM
1998 Randall Cunningham MIN 14 13- 1- 0 259 425 60.9% 3704 8.72 34 8.00% 10 2.35% 106.0 78.1 20 32 132 4.13 1 2
2022 Randall Cunningham MIN 15 14- 1- 0 324 468 69.2% 4187 8.95 37 7.82% 8 1.66% 116.3 89.4 19 60 248 4.13 2 2
2022 was a down year too as far as inflation goes. His numbers would've been even better in 2020.
2020 Randall Cunningham MIN 14 13- 1- 0 325 463 70.3% 4267 9.22 42 9.10% 7 1.57% 122.9 92.0 18 48 198 4.13 3 2Move over Terrell Davis, those are unanimous MVP numbers right there. 122.9 QB rating would be the single season record too. That's the kind of season we need ol Kirky boy to have, to match 1998.
Now I need a WR Inflation Calculator to see what Moss' numbers would've looked like today. I'll do a back of the envelope calculation ...
<a few moments later>
1998 Moss (69 catches 1313 yards (19.03 avg) and 17 TD's), would've had 86 catches for 1478 yards (17.19 avg) and 18 TD's by 2022 standards. That's 87 catches 1512 yards (17.38 avg) and 21 TD's by 2020 standards.
2022 JJ (128 catches 1809 yards (14.13 avg) and 8 TD's), would've had 102 catches 1599 yards (15.68 avg) and 7 TD's by 1998 standards.
Now who wants to fight me to the death over my flawless methodology?
I mean if you have some negative stats about him to share, fine, but this? Besides, one should be skeptical of any modern day passing achievements that haven't passed through the QB Inflation Calculator. If you factored in era, I'll bet 35 QB's are on that list xD. And I might do the math on that myself 
.
... and neither is this Chris guy.