Post by Purple Pain on Jun 26, 2023 11:47:27 GMT -6
The conversation to extend or not to extend Kirk Cousins has been pretty much played out. We can revisit in March.
We're at a standstill with pay or trade Danielle Hunter, as well.
We recently saw the Cook debate come to an end.
But what about paying the Vikings' version of their very own NBA-style Big 3?
By all accounts, this team intends to build around Jefferson, Hockenson, and Darrisaw. With an offensive-minded HC and play-caller, this is good a core. Ideally, the QBOTF is part of the "big three", but that's a conversation for another day!
How do we pay Jefferson, Hockenson, and Darrisaw? What does that look like? And what the heck is taking so long?
Some things to get the discussion started:
Brad Spielberger: A look at the Minnesota Vikings future: Rebuild or contender?
Paying Hockenson
Silas Bobendrier: What Kind Of Money Will Hockenson Demand From the Vikings?
Paying Darrisaw
Silas Bobendrier: How Do the Vikings Keep Darrisaw In Minnesota?
Aaaaand the biggest priority of them all...
Paying Jefferson
Chris Schad: Why Is Justin Jefferson's Extension Taking So Long?
More about paying JJ here in this thread.
And if you want to dive deeper into where we are at and where we are headed, check out this in-depth piece from Uncle in the Purple Pain Original Content subforum:
>>> Return on Investment: 2022 Vikings Cap Review & 2023 Preview <<<
We're at a standstill with pay or trade Danielle Hunter, as well.
We recently saw the Cook debate come to an end.
But what about paying the Vikings' version of their very own NBA-style Big 3?
By all accounts, this team intends to build around Jefferson, Hockenson, and Darrisaw. With an offensive-minded HC and play-caller, this is good a core. Ideally, the QBOTF is part of the "big three", but that's a conversation for another day!
How do we pay Jefferson, Hockenson, and Darrisaw? What does that look like? And what the heck is taking so long?
Some things to get the discussion started:
Brad Spielberger: A look at the Minnesota Vikings future: Rebuild or contender?
The Minnesota Vikings and their new brass have toed the line between running it back and tearing it down over the last two offseasons, and the approach has left many wondering what exactly the plan is long-term. The moves taken in totality truly do embody one of the most tired cliches in sports — they’re undergoing a “competitive rebuild” if we’ve ever seen one.
The Vikings moved on from several franchise cornerstones this offseason, as wide receiver Adam Thielen joined the Carolina Panthers and linebacker Eric Kendricks moved back out west to sign with the Los Angeles Chargers. Minnesota’s 2022 defense had 24% of snaps played by players aged 30 or older, 10th-most in the NFL, and trading 30-year-old edge defender Za’Darius Smith to the Cleveland Browns after replacing him with 26-year-old edge defender Marcus Davenport in free agency was another attempt to inject youth into the unit.
Dalvin Cook doesn’t exactly fit the “old” criteria at just 27 years old, but a $10.4 million salary for a running back didn’t make sense for a team that has a ton of holes at premium positions. In a general sense, it appears Minnesota asked themselves this question about every major decision on a well-paid veteran:
“Would Player X meaningfully contribute in 2024 and beyond?”
If the answer wasn’t a resounding yes to that question, they’ve decided to move on.
EXTENSIONS DUE SOON
Edge defender Danielle Hunter becomes a fascinating piece of the puzzle because he seemingly straddles both sides of the equation. Hunter is entering his age 29 season, but we’re seeing edge defenders across the NFL maintain a high level of production well into their 30s. If Minnesota trades Hunter, they’d be moving on from nearly 150 quarterback pressures with the aforementioned Za’Darius Smith trade.
We wrote up a hypothetical extension for Hunter and the challenge facing Minnesota with this decision. If Minnesota trades Hunter away, they may have an even worse defense than a unit in 2022 that allowed the second-most explosive receptions in the NFL with 116 and the third-highest yards per coverage snap at 6.83. New defensive coordinator Brian Flores should be an upgrade, but he has his work cut out for him with a young and inexperienced unit at many positions.
SWIMMING UPSTREAM
Over a stretch filled largely with roster contraction, one move sticks out as going in the opposite direction. The Vikings traded a 2023 second-round pick and a 2024 third-round pick for tight end T.J. Hockenson along with 2023 and 2024 fourth-round picks. Hockenson is set to play on his fifth-year option and thus entering a contract year in 2023, and there has been little chatter about an extension.
Does Minnesota give Hockenson a new contract, likely at the top of the market? Do they let Hockenson walk after 2023 and hope to recoup a compensatory pick, potentially hamstringing their ability to add top talent in free agency next offseason? The Vikings clearly had a plan for how to use Hockenson on the field upon acquiring the former top-10 pick, as his 60 receptions after the trade deadline trailed only Travis Kelce at the position through the end of the season. The larger question is how confident are they in the long-term vision with a position that has often exhibited a decline in the late 20s.
The Vikings moved on from several franchise cornerstones this offseason, as wide receiver Adam Thielen joined the Carolina Panthers and linebacker Eric Kendricks moved back out west to sign with the Los Angeles Chargers. Minnesota’s 2022 defense had 24% of snaps played by players aged 30 or older, 10th-most in the NFL, and trading 30-year-old edge defender Za’Darius Smith to the Cleveland Browns after replacing him with 26-year-old edge defender Marcus Davenport in free agency was another attempt to inject youth into the unit.
Dalvin Cook doesn’t exactly fit the “old” criteria at just 27 years old, but a $10.4 million salary for a running back didn’t make sense for a team that has a ton of holes at premium positions. In a general sense, it appears Minnesota asked themselves this question about every major decision on a well-paid veteran:
“Would Player X meaningfully contribute in 2024 and beyond?”
If the answer wasn’t a resounding yes to that question, they’ve decided to move on.
EXTENSIONS DUE SOON
Edge defender Danielle Hunter becomes a fascinating piece of the puzzle because he seemingly straddles both sides of the equation. Hunter is entering his age 29 season, but we’re seeing edge defenders across the NFL maintain a high level of production well into their 30s. If Minnesota trades Hunter, they’d be moving on from nearly 150 quarterback pressures with the aforementioned Za’Darius Smith trade.
We wrote up a hypothetical extension for Hunter and the challenge facing Minnesota with this decision. If Minnesota trades Hunter away, they may have an even worse defense than a unit in 2022 that allowed the second-most explosive receptions in the NFL with 116 and the third-highest yards per coverage snap at 6.83. New defensive coordinator Brian Flores should be an upgrade, but he has his work cut out for him with a young and inexperienced unit at many positions.
SWIMMING UPSTREAM
Over a stretch filled largely with roster contraction, one move sticks out as going in the opposite direction. The Vikings traded a 2023 second-round pick and a 2024 third-round pick for tight end T.J. Hockenson along with 2023 and 2024 fourth-round picks. Hockenson is set to play on his fifth-year option and thus entering a contract year in 2023, and there has been little chatter about an extension.
Does Minnesota give Hockenson a new contract, likely at the top of the market? Do they let Hockenson walk after 2023 and hope to recoup a compensatory pick, potentially hamstringing their ability to add top talent in free agency next offseason? The Vikings clearly had a plan for how to use Hockenson on the field upon acquiring the former top-10 pick, as his 60 receptions after the trade deadline trailed only Travis Kelce at the position through the end of the season. The larger question is how confident are they in the long-term vision with a position that has often exhibited a decline in the late 20s.
Silas Bobendrier: What Kind Of Money Will Hockenson Demand From the Vikings?
After an offseason to familiarize himself with the playbook and gain team chemistry, Hockenson will play a greater role during his second year. He’ll likely debut as Minnesota’s second-most-targeted pass catcher as Addison is given time to acclimate to the speed of the NFL. And with the Vikings moving to more looks utilizing 12-personnel while adding a blocking tight end, Hockenson will have every opportunity to roam the middle of the field.
While Hockenson’s contract will not reset any markets, it will likely place him around fourth in average annual value (AAV) on the tight end leaderboard. Despite being less proven or consistent than tight ends like Mark Andrews or George Kittle, Hockenson has demonstrated his capability and has incredible upside within the Vikings system.
HUNTER HENRY: 3Y/$37M
$25M gtd. at signing, $15M signing bonus
Henry signed a three-year, $37 million contract in free agency with the New England Patriots in 2021. While he’s vastly underperformed his expectations in the first two years, this can partially be attributed to the split of attention between Jonnu Smith and himself – and New England’s offensive dysfunction.
Hockenson is three years younger and a much more dynamic threat than Henry, with his best year comprising roughly 1.5x Henry’s best year’s total production. Henry’s contract would serve as the likely minimum Hockenson would receive and works as a guide to set a baseline.
MARK ANDREWS: 4Y/$56M
$37M gtd. at signing, $10M signing bonus
Mark Andrews’ contract may serve as the best guide for what a potential Hockenson contract could look like, with the deal taking Andrews to his age-29 season, with a potential out after the third year. While Andrews may have better box-score stats, the Baltimore Ravens’ passing offense has been run through the tight end group, and Andrews operates in a system tailor-made to his skillset.
Hockenson’s contract numbers will likely fall around a four-to-five-year, roughly $15 million AAV deal. A four-year contract would take Hockenson to his age-30 season and would provide for certainty at the tight end position for the QBOTF, whether it is a newly selected player or Kirk Cousins.
GEORGE KITTLE: 5Y/$75M
$30M gtd. at signing, $18M signing bonus
While Kittle has vastly outmatched Hockenson as a player to this point in their respective careers, it is worth noting that Kittle’s breakout season was at 25. Hockenson will turn 26 this offseason and is now entrenched in the best system he’s played in to date. Hockenson’s absolute ceiling is probably just within Kittle’s playing potential, and this contract is within the highest end that he could acquire unless the Vikings opt to completely reset the tight-end market. Hockenson’s contract should fall somewhere within the middle of these players, likely landing nearer to Andrews’ contract.
Hockenson’s camp will want the Vikings’ management to acknowledge his potential within the offensive system they employ, and the Vikings will want to affirm their commitment to Hockenson without overextending their limited resources so that they can afford other critical players like Justin Jefferson and Christian Darrisaw.
Ultimately, the Vikings will reach a reasonable agreement to keep Hockenson under contract, and his potential will likely pay incredible dividends for the team. Hockenson seems eager to continue playing in purple, and the Vikings should be enthused by the prospect of him lining up with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison for the next four years.
While Hockenson’s contract will not reset any markets, it will likely place him around fourth in average annual value (AAV) on the tight end leaderboard. Despite being less proven or consistent than tight ends like Mark Andrews or George Kittle, Hockenson has demonstrated his capability and has incredible upside within the Vikings system.
HUNTER HENRY: 3Y/$37M
$25M gtd. at signing, $15M signing bonus
Henry signed a three-year, $37 million contract in free agency with the New England Patriots in 2021. While he’s vastly underperformed his expectations in the first two years, this can partially be attributed to the split of attention between Jonnu Smith and himself – and New England’s offensive dysfunction.
Hockenson is three years younger and a much more dynamic threat than Henry, with his best year comprising roughly 1.5x Henry’s best year’s total production. Henry’s contract would serve as the likely minimum Hockenson would receive and works as a guide to set a baseline.
MARK ANDREWS: 4Y/$56M
$37M gtd. at signing, $10M signing bonus
Mark Andrews’ contract may serve as the best guide for what a potential Hockenson contract could look like, with the deal taking Andrews to his age-29 season, with a potential out after the third year. While Andrews may have better box-score stats, the Baltimore Ravens’ passing offense has been run through the tight end group, and Andrews operates in a system tailor-made to his skillset.
Hockenson’s contract numbers will likely fall around a four-to-five-year, roughly $15 million AAV deal. A four-year contract would take Hockenson to his age-30 season and would provide for certainty at the tight end position for the QBOTF, whether it is a newly selected player or Kirk Cousins.
GEORGE KITTLE: 5Y/$75M
$30M gtd. at signing, $18M signing bonus
While Kittle has vastly outmatched Hockenson as a player to this point in their respective careers, it is worth noting that Kittle’s breakout season was at 25. Hockenson will turn 26 this offseason and is now entrenched in the best system he’s played in to date. Hockenson’s absolute ceiling is probably just within Kittle’s playing potential, and this contract is within the highest end that he could acquire unless the Vikings opt to completely reset the tight-end market. Hockenson’s contract should fall somewhere within the middle of these players, likely landing nearer to Andrews’ contract.
Hockenson’s camp will want the Vikings’ management to acknowledge his potential within the offensive system they employ, and the Vikings will want to affirm their commitment to Hockenson without overextending their limited resources so that they can afford other critical players like Justin Jefferson and Christian Darrisaw.
Ultimately, the Vikings will reach a reasonable agreement to keep Hockenson under contract, and his potential will likely pay incredible dividends for the team. Hockenson seems eager to continue playing in purple, and the Vikings should be enthused by the prospect of him lining up with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison for the next four years.
Silas Bobendrier: How Do the Vikings Keep Darrisaw In Minnesota?
While injuries have been an issue, Darrrisaw figures to have his best season yet in terms of of availability. He missed time as a rookie recovering from a nagging groin injury suffered during his final season at Virginia Tech and also endured repeated concussions during the 2022 campaign.
Darrisaw will use the VICIS Trench, the No. 1-rated helmet by NFL testing, to avoid repetitive issues stemming from the concussions. He also underwent neck strength training during the offseason.
When on the field, though, Darrisaw is dominant. Marked during the 2022 preseason by many analysts as a possible breakout player for the Vikings, he met expectations and then some. Darrisaw finished with a 90.3 PFF grade, charting a 90.2 run-blocking grade and 81.8 pass-blocking grade over 652 snaps.
Darrisaw finished as the sixth-highest tackle in the performance metric of run-block win rate. He dominated in the run game, opening up massive holes on the left side of the line, and was excellent in protecting Kirk Cousins against opposing edge rushers.
While there is still room for Darrisaw to improve, his ceiling seems nearly limitless. In the first two years of his career, he’s compiled 71.9 and 90.3 PFF grades while allowing 10 sacks and 21 hurries in 24 games. Through the first two years of Joe Thomas’ career, he received PFF grades of 84.9 and 88.1 while allowing six sacks and 34 hurries. Darrisaw has a smaller sample size to work with, but a comparison to the HOF offensive tackle is very impressive.
Left tackles account for roughly 6% of the salary cap in the NFL, and the Vikings need to financially account for several other high-caliber talents. How can Minnesota structure a deal that will sate Darrisaw’s desires and keep them towards the median of the financial pyramid?
A deal that could serve as a guide is that of Baltimore Ravens’ tackle Ronnie Stanley. He’s an elite tackle and invaluable to Baltimore’s run-heavy scheme when healthy. Stanley’s rookie years profile similarly to Darrisaw’s rookie play, but Darrisaw vastly outpaces Stanley’s second year, showing glimpses of an elite ceiling.
RONNIE STANLEY 5Y/$99M ($64M GTD. AT SIGNING)
Stanley’s deal is structured to create space by having a small cap hit in the early years. If the Vikings were to choose to frontload the impending Jefferson extension, it could provide breathing room and keep the team from pressing against the cap ceiling from year to year.
The deal averages $19.75 million per year, and Stanley is among the top-paid tackles in the NFL in AAV. Signing Darrisaw to a deal like this would provide stability for Darrisaw and substantial guaranteed money while providing for the ever-shifting tackle market to grow beyond the deal as the cap ceiling rises. Eventually, that makes it a steal for the Vikings like Danielle Hunter’s first extension.
While it could be a risk for the Vikings, Darrisaw’s immense talent and improvement should inspire confidence within the organization. His power and reach are within the highest talent tier, and he dominates without looking like he gives much effort. Ultimately, Minnesota will benefit from acting early, and signing Darrisaw to a deal with substantial guaranteed money in which the cap can grow around would likely satisfy both parties.
Darrisaw is already a top-10 tackle and can grow into a perennial contender for OT1 in the league. The Vikings will benefit from his continued services and should look to lock him up for as long as possible. Teams will soon be writing checks for rising tackles like Andrew Thomas, Penei Sewell, and Tristan Wirfs, and the Vikings would benefit from getting ahead of the curve with their premier player.
Darrisaw will use the VICIS Trench, the No. 1-rated helmet by NFL testing, to avoid repetitive issues stemming from the concussions. He also underwent neck strength training during the offseason.
When on the field, though, Darrisaw is dominant. Marked during the 2022 preseason by many analysts as a possible breakout player for the Vikings, he met expectations and then some. Darrisaw finished with a 90.3 PFF grade, charting a 90.2 run-blocking grade and 81.8 pass-blocking grade over 652 snaps.
Darrisaw finished as the sixth-highest tackle in the performance metric of run-block win rate. He dominated in the run game, opening up massive holes on the left side of the line, and was excellent in protecting Kirk Cousins against opposing edge rushers.
While there is still room for Darrisaw to improve, his ceiling seems nearly limitless. In the first two years of his career, he’s compiled 71.9 and 90.3 PFF grades while allowing 10 sacks and 21 hurries in 24 games. Through the first two years of Joe Thomas’ career, he received PFF grades of 84.9 and 88.1 while allowing six sacks and 34 hurries. Darrisaw has a smaller sample size to work with, but a comparison to the HOF offensive tackle is very impressive.
Left tackles account for roughly 6% of the salary cap in the NFL, and the Vikings need to financially account for several other high-caliber talents. How can Minnesota structure a deal that will sate Darrisaw’s desires and keep them towards the median of the financial pyramid?
A deal that could serve as a guide is that of Baltimore Ravens’ tackle Ronnie Stanley. He’s an elite tackle and invaluable to Baltimore’s run-heavy scheme when healthy. Stanley’s rookie years profile similarly to Darrisaw’s rookie play, but Darrisaw vastly outpaces Stanley’s second year, showing glimpses of an elite ceiling.
RONNIE STANLEY 5Y/$99M ($64M GTD. AT SIGNING)
Stanley’s deal is structured to create space by having a small cap hit in the early years. If the Vikings were to choose to frontload the impending Jefferson extension, it could provide breathing room and keep the team from pressing against the cap ceiling from year to year.
The deal averages $19.75 million per year, and Stanley is among the top-paid tackles in the NFL in AAV. Signing Darrisaw to a deal like this would provide stability for Darrisaw and substantial guaranteed money while providing for the ever-shifting tackle market to grow beyond the deal as the cap ceiling rises. Eventually, that makes it a steal for the Vikings like Danielle Hunter’s first extension.
While it could be a risk for the Vikings, Darrisaw’s immense talent and improvement should inspire confidence within the organization. His power and reach are within the highest talent tier, and he dominates without looking like he gives much effort. Ultimately, Minnesota will benefit from acting early, and signing Darrisaw to a deal with substantial guaranteed money in which the cap can grow around would likely satisfy both parties.
Darrisaw is already a top-10 tackle and can grow into a perennial contender for OT1 in the league. The Vikings will benefit from his continued services and should look to lock him up for as long as possible. Teams will soon be writing checks for rising tackles like Andrew Thomas, Penei Sewell, and Tristan Wirfs, and the Vikings would benefit from getting ahead of the curve with their premier player.
Aaaaand the biggest priority of them all...
Paying Jefferson
Chris Schad: Why Is Justin Jefferson's Extension Taking So Long?
At some point this offseason, the Minnesota Vikings were in line for a massive celebration.
Kwesi Adofo-Mensah would stand at the podium with a smile from ear to ear. Kevin O’Connell was going to wipe tears of joy from his eyes. Rob Brzezinski would be in the corner having a stiff drink. And Justin Jefferson was blinding everyone within a 50-mile radius of TCO Performance Center with his new grill.
The Wilf family would walk on stage with a giant blank check, the ones you see in the Publisher’s Clearing House sweepstakes. Jefferson would proudly write “ONE BILLION DOLLARS” on it as confetti flew everywhere. A giant banner unfurled from the rafters that would proclaim Jefferson a Viking for life.
Okay, maybe that’s a stretch. But you get the idea.
Jefferson is in line for one of the most significant wide receiver contracts in NFL history. The Vikings would probably like to lock up the face of the franchise. Jefferson said during training camp that he’s “not too fond of money,” and Adofo-Mensah called his new contract a “champagne problem” earlier this offseason.
But here we are just a month outside of training camp, and there’s no sign of a new deal. Vikings fans probably shouldn’t be nervous, but it’s natural to wonder what’s taking so long, especially when both sides have so much to gain.
It starts with the Vikings’ motivation this offseason. After running everybody back one year ago, Adofo-Mensah has put his “competitive rebuild” plan into action, keeping players with long-term upside and getting rid of high-priced veterans who are quick fixes.
Jefferson definitely fits into the long-term upside category. He dominated the league for three seasons. No player in NFL history has more receiving yards in his first three years than Jefferson. The sheer number of people in No. 18 jerseys trying to learn The Griddy signals that he’s the team’s most popular player.
By this logic, there should be a blank contract awaiting Jefferson’s signature. But there’s also the long-term aspect, which could complicate things.
Creating salary cap flexibility is another theme for Minnesota’s front office this offseason. The Vikings cut Adam Thielen, Eric Kendricks, and Dalvin Cook partially because it created cap space in 2024. While they created that space in part to sign Jefferson to a long-term extension, the Vikings don’t want to burn all of that cap space on just one player.
That could create a scenario where Minnesota is willing to work out a five-year deal filled with bonuses and movable money at the back end of the contract. It would work perfectly for the Vikings, who were known to tear up contracts and reward players in the old regime. It just might not be the best option for Jefferson.
Like many players in the NFL, Jefferson probably wants control over his situation. If the Adofo-Mensah’s competitive rebuild doesn’t work, Jefferson would likely want to go to a team that’s ready to contend – especially since he places a high emphasis on winning.
Signing a five-year deal with the Vikings but playing with a bad quarterback wouldn’t help Jefferson in the long run. Thus it may be more beneficial to sign a shorter-term deal to have more control over his situation. By signing a three-year deal, Jefferson can also hit the market in his prime.
It’s a strategy that D.K. Metcalf used in his three-year, $72 million deal that allows him to hit the market after his age-27 season. A.J. Brown also used this strategy, signing a four-year, $100 million contract with the Philadelphia Eagles last summer that makes him a free agent at age 29.
Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill executed the next level of this idea. Adams signed a five-year, $140 million contract with the Las Vegas Raiders at age 30, and Hill signed a four-year, $120 million contract with the Miami Dolphins at age 28.
All of these contracts look great on paper. But there’s another aspect that Jefferson and his camp could be pursuing – a fully guaranteed deal. That could throw another wrench into negotiations as Jefferson looks to maximize his value. Jefferson is worthy of a massive payday, but no receiver has ever gotten a fully-guaranteed contract due to the nature of his position.
Kwesi Adofo-Mensah would stand at the podium with a smile from ear to ear. Kevin O’Connell was going to wipe tears of joy from his eyes. Rob Brzezinski would be in the corner having a stiff drink. And Justin Jefferson was blinding everyone within a 50-mile radius of TCO Performance Center with his new grill.
The Wilf family would walk on stage with a giant blank check, the ones you see in the Publisher’s Clearing House sweepstakes. Jefferson would proudly write “ONE BILLION DOLLARS” on it as confetti flew everywhere. A giant banner unfurled from the rafters that would proclaim Jefferson a Viking for life.
Okay, maybe that’s a stretch. But you get the idea.
Jefferson is in line for one of the most significant wide receiver contracts in NFL history. The Vikings would probably like to lock up the face of the franchise. Jefferson said during training camp that he’s “not too fond of money,” and Adofo-Mensah called his new contract a “champagne problem” earlier this offseason.
But here we are just a month outside of training camp, and there’s no sign of a new deal. Vikings fans probably shouldn’t be nervous, but it’s natural to wonder what’s taking so long, especially when both sides have so much to gain.
It starts with the Vikings’ motivation this offseason. After running everybody back one year ago, Adofo-Mensah has put his “competitive rebuild” plan into action, keeping players with long-term upside and getting rid of high-priced veterans who are quick fixes.
Jefferson definitely fits into the long-term upside category. He dominated the league for three seasons. No player in NFL history has more receiving yards in his first three years than Jefferson. The sheer number of people in No. 18 jerseys trying to learn The Griddy signals that he’s the team’s most popular player.
By this logic, there should be a blank contract awaiting Jefferson’s signature. But there’s also the long-term aspect, which could complicate things.
Creating salary cap flexibility is another theme for Minnesota’s front office this offseason. The Vikings cut Adam Thielen, Eric Kendricks, and Dalvin Cook partially because it created cap space in 2024. While they created that space in part to sign Jefferson to a long-term extension, the Vikings don’t want to burn all of that cap space on just one player.
That could create a scenario where Minnesota is willing to work out a five-year deal filled with bonuses and movable money at the back end of the contract. It would work perfectly for the Vikings, who were known to tear up contracts and reward players in the old regime. It just might not be the best option for Jefferson.
Like many players in the NFL, Jefferson probably wants control over his situation. If the Adofo-Mensah’s competitive rebuild doesn’t work, Jefferson would likely want to go to a team that’s ready to contend – especially since he places a high emphasis on winning.
Signing a five-year deal with the Vikings but playing with a bad quarterback wouldn’t help Jefferson in the long run. Thus it may be more beneficial to sign a shorter-term deal to have more control over his situation. By signing a three-year deal, Jefferson can also hit the market in his prime.
It’s a strategy that D.K. Metcalf used in his three-year, $72 million deal that allows him to hit the market after his age-27 season. A.J. Brown also used this strategy, signing a four-year, $100 million contract with the Philadelphia Eagles last summer that makes him a free agent at age 29.
Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill executed the next level of this idea. Adams signed a five-year, $140 million contract with the Las Vegas Raiders at age 30, and Hill signed a four-year, $120 million contract with the Miami Dolphins at age 28.
All of these contracts look great on paper. But there’s another aspect that Jefferson and his camp could be pursuing – a fully guaranteed deal. That could throw another wrench into negotiations as Jefferson looks to maximize his value. Jefferson is worthy of a massive payday, but no receiver has ever gotten a fully-guaranteed contract due to the nature of his position.
More about paying JJ here in this thread.
And if you want to dive deeper into where we are at and where we are headed, check out this in-depth piece from Uncle in the Purple Pain Original Content subforum:
>>> Return on Investment: 2022 Vikings Cap Review & 2023 Preview <<<
... and neither is this Chris guy.