Let's have a look at the draft classes that Brian Flores oversaw with the Dolphins, focusing on the defensive players that Flores added to build what was the worst defense in football into a respectable unit and see if there are any conclusions to draw.

Key: AV = Pro Football Reference's Actual Value stat, correlates to games played and counting stats
AVPY = AV per year
My Board = My ranking of the player pre-draft.
PFF = An overall PFF rating for this player's career, weighted more towards 2021 & 2022.





You can generally consider the 2019 and 2021 classes to be successes, with Wilkins taking a big step forward in 2022 and the duo of Phillips and Holland being positive contributors. I actually think Holland is on the underrated side after he had a near elite rookie year in 2021. In this three year sample size, I can conclude that the Grier/Flores combo did a satisfactory job.

The 2020 picks are a mixed bag when comparing AV to PFF - by snaps played and tackles recorded, Davis and Jones are relative successes, but PFF thinks they are both considerably below average players. One thing that is not for debate is that Igbinoghene is a total bust - you can argue he's been stuck behind Xavien Howard and Byron Jones, but there have been plenty of snaps for an outside CB to play with those two getting hurt frequently, and yet he's been terrible and passed up by UDFA/veteran filler.

I opted to add the ranking from my draft boards at the time to use as an indicator of accuracy (this is part of a bigger article I'm working on). It just so happens that my board was in complete agreement with the Wilkins, Phillips, and Holland picks. All three of the top 2020 picks were deemed questionable, and at least by PFF's standards my board's complaints were justified.

I find it concerning that the one time Flores took a big swing at a CB, he completely failed. However, we should recognize that one selection is a small sample size. There is also another reason for hope when it comes to our top drafted CB, Mekhi Blackmon. It is well known that the primary reason why he was drafted in the 3rd round was because of his outstanding PFF rating. Now check this out:

2020 draft board - top 60 players with PFF grades in their final year in college at 75 or lower



The correlation between a subpar PFF grade in their final year to being a bust in the NFL is very strong (the only successes here IMO are S Dugger and TE Kmet). All 4 of the CBs have turned out to be complete busts with only Igbinoghene still with his original team. I did the opposite study on high PFF ratings and didn't find as strong of a correlation, so I didn't bother to screenshot it.

I find this to be good news for Blackmon, but also bad news for 4th rounder Jay Ward, who had a worse PFF rating than everyone on this list (part of the reason why I considered him to be a 7th round prospect). But it's also worth noting that Blackmon was the last pick in the 3rd round, and the hit rate on a late 1st like Igbinoghene is considerably higher than the late 3rd, so it's not necessarily a blunder on KAM/Flores' part if Blackmon doesn't pan out.

Outside of that, I don't have any other conclusions to draw. If we had spent a 1st or 2nd round pick on a player who was rated highly by the consensus, I'd be excited, but we only ended up spending a very late 3rd, late 4th, and early 5th on defensive players. It's not fair to just look at this crop of mid-rounders players and expect the success of Wilkins/Holland/Phillips there.


I am working on a larger draft analysis article that will examine whether it has been worthwhile to grade draft picks after the draft has happened, so stay tuned for that!