The Flores Effect - 2020 Miami Def vs 2023 Minnesota Def
May 3, 2023 23:04:08 GMT -6
Funkytown, wavedog, and 7 more like this
Post by Uncle on May 3, 2023 23:04:08 GMT -6
With the 2023 Draft in the books, NFL teams will now turn their attention to rookie minicamps and OTA's throughout May & June to fine-tune the 90-man rosters ahead of Training Camp in mid/late July. As many fans anticipated, the offseason has brought many changes to the roster as the Vikings bid farewell to veterans Adam Thielen, Patrick Peterson and Eric Kendricks in free agency while bringing in younger replacements in Jordan Addison and Byron Murphy. But perhaps the most significant acquistion/replacement the Vikings brought in during the offseason took place before the 2023 League Year began: the hiring Brian Flores as the Defensive Coordinator.
The Dalvin Cook questions aside, the Vikings 2023 offense should closely resemble what we saw in 2022 with Jordan Addison/KJ Osborn replacing Adam Thielen, newly-acquired TE Josh Oliver taking over TE2 duties from Irv Smith, Jr. and Johnny Mundt, and the entire 2022 offensive line returning for the first time in what seems like ages. On the other side of the ball, there will be plenty of new faces in key roster positions across all three levels, and with new faces - including rookies - comes new questions...the most pressing of which is: can Flores significantly improve a bottom-five ranked Vikings defense and return it to the levels fans enjoyed at the height of the Zimmer era, even with all the fresh faces on the roster?
To try and answer that question, the most obvious place to look is what Flores did during his time with Miami that resuted in a significant turnaround of one the league's worst defenses.
Key for 2020 Dolphins Turnaround: Defense
Flores was hired as the Miami Head Coach in 2019 and his first year didn't exactly go as-planned: GM Chris Grier traded away their starting QB, Ryan Tannehill, during the offseason and during the first half of the 2019 season he traded away key contributors Minka Fitzpatrick, Laremy Tunsil and Kenyan Drake. On top of that, injuries to key defensive players such as CB Xavien Howard, S Bobby McCain and DT Raekwon McMillan left the defense decimated. Journeyman QB Ryan Fitzpatrick was signed to manage the offense and the team stumbled to a 0-7 record before rallying to win five of their final nine games. With some newly signed defensive free agents in the 2020 offseason that fit more of what Flores wanted to run, the 2020 Miami team did a complete 180, doubling the amount of wins with 10 behind a Top 10 defense spearheaded by Flores.
Here are some of the key defensive metrics of that 2020 Dolphins defense compared to 2019, with the Vikings 2022 defensive metrics also displayed:
Key takeaways:
- Right away you can see that Flores' first year in 2019 was horrible as Miam's defense ranked last in DVOA, PPG Allowed, Total Yds Allowed and were near the bottom in nearly every other key defensive metric.
- The 2020 turnaround was remarkable as Miami ranked 11th in DVOA and 6th in PPG Allowed - they allowed nearly 10 pts less per-game and nearly 500 less total yards vs the prior season.
- The key drivers were turnovers (ranked 1st overall), getting off the field on 3rd down (they decreased the % that their opponents converted 3rd downs by over 10%), increased QB pressure (dead last in '19 to 11th overall in '20) and improving their red zone defensive efficiency.
- Outside of turnovers and Opp 3rd Down Conv %, the 2022 Vikings defense unfortunately closely resembled the 2019 Dolphins, ranking near the bottom in DVOA, Total Yds Allowed, Opp Red Zone Scoring % (they didn't just "bend", they "broke", too) and QB Pressure %.
Defensive Roster Breakdowns: 2020 Dolphins to 2023 Vikings
Now that we can see the key areas that Flores was able to focus on to turn around the Miami defense, what did the defensive roster look like in 2020 for Miami and how does that compare to what the Vikings 2023 defensive roster could be?
Here is a look at both rosters with the # of yrs experience, snaps played and PFF grade during that last season:
Key takeaways:
- The 2020 Dolphins were very healthy - the avg # of games played by their 25-man Defensive Roster was 14, compared to just an avg of 11 games played by Vikings players in 2022.
- The 2020 Dolphins were a relatively young unit with the avg yrs of experience being 2.4. The 2023 Vikings defensive roster has an avg of 1+ more yrs of experience, with the OLB/ILB players nearly having 2 more yrs of experience. However, if you take away Harrison Smith's 11 yrs, the Vikings avg age of the DB unit drops to just 1.6 yrs, and that's counting Joejuan Williams who may not make that final 53-man roster.
- The obvious strength of that 2020 Miami group was the DE group, with veteran OLB's (Shaq Lawson and Andrew Van Ginkel) along with their starting CB's in X Howard and B Jones. The increased pressure % referenced earlier came from that DE/OLB group. The 2023 Vikings have a similar strength in their OLB group (if both Hunter and Zadarius are on the roster), but their DE group without Tomlinson clearly isn't as strong as what Miami had in 2020.
- The Dolpins defensive players in 2020 played an avg of 44% of the def snaps vs. the Vikings 2023 roster who played just an avg of 31% of their team's def snaps in 2022 - the LB core behind Hicks and obviously the rookies in the secondary along with Cine account for the majority of that difference.
- The DB group as a "whole" is going to be key for the Vikings in 2023 because the CB group themselves are dratically less-experienced and the 2022 Vikings were already ranked 31st in passing yds allowed. The 2020 Dolphins really leaned on their starting CB group, something the Vikings don't have, and Flores is going to have to utilize the safeties in this secondary to prevent big plays from the opposing offense.
- Even though the team defensive statistics for Miami were dramatically improved in 2020, it was more of a total team effort vs individual PFF scores: their avg individual def PFF grade was just under 60, whereas the Vikings were nearly 7 pts higher at 66.5.
Conclusion
In regards to the question posed earlier on whether Flores can improve the Vikings 2022 defense in a similar fashion as he did from 2019-2020 in Miami, I believe the answer to that question is "yes". They Vikings are coming from a slightly better spot in 2023 than the 2019 Dolphins - they already generate turnovers and their Opp 3rd Down Conv % is also starting from a better position. Of course, the counter to that is the 2022 Vikings allowed chunks of yards on early downs that attributed to their 31st ranking in Total/Passing Yds Allowed, and that might seem like futher trouble given the lack of NFL experience with their young CB group...
...but as we can see from the total defensive statistics and individual PFF grades for the Dolphins in 2020, it was definitely more of a total team effort vs a few individuals - the players on the Vikings 2023 defensive roster had higher individual PFF grades and although they might not have the same level of snaps played, they have more NFL years of experience than the 2020 Dolphins had which leads me to conclude that a good NFL defensive coach can take a solid group of individual players and get them to play better team defense overall.
Further, Flores wasn't allowed to shape the 2019 Dolphins defense to what he wanted to run due to lack of personnel (Grier traded away some key players and they only added Christian Wilkens in the Draft) and injuries; it took some key free agent acquisitions in 2020 and a healthy team in 2020 for Flores to finally run the defense he wanted. The Vikings aren't waiting until 2024 to get Flores involved in key defensive decisions: many of the key defensive personnel decisions this offseason - from the release of Kendricks, to the signings of Murphy & Davenport to the defensive prospects added via the 2023 Draft - had Flores' fingerprints all over them.
The Vikings 2023 defense might not experienec quite the turnaround the 2020 Dolphins did, but if Flores can take a 31st ranked unit and get them up in the ballpark of 15th-20th ranked overall in 2023, as long as the O'Connell and offense continue to consistently progress (which they should given the continutity of the personnel and another year of O'Connell/Phillips), the Vikings should continue to be a competitive team in 2023 with an experienced Defensive Coordinator in Brian Flores who has proven in getting team-orientated results..
...and that's why Flores was likely the most significant offseason acquisition for the Vikings in 2023.
The Dalvin Cook questions aside, the Vikings 2023 offense should closely resemble what we saw in 2022 with Jordan Addison/KJ Osborn replacing Adam Thielen, newly-acquired TE Josh Oliver taking over TE2 duties from Irv Smith, Jr. and Johnny Mundt, and the entire 2022 offensive line returning for the first time in what seems like ages. On the other side of the ball, there will be plenty of new faces in key roster positions across all three levels, and with new faces - including rookies - comes new questions...the most pressing of which is: can Flores significantly improve a bottom-five ranked Vikings defense and return it to the levels fans enjoyed at the height of the Zimmer era, even with all the fresh faces on the roster?
To try and answer that question, the most obvious place to look is what Flores did during his time with Miami that resuted in a significant turnaround of one the league's worst defenses.
Key for 2020 Dolphins Turnaround: Defense
Flores was hired as the Miami Head Coach in 2019 and his first year didn't exactly go as-planned: GM Chris Grier traded away their starting QB, Ryan Tannehill, during the offseason and during the first half of the 2019 season he traded away key contributors Minka Fitzpatrick, Laremy Tunsil and Kenyan Drake. On top of that, injuries to key defensive players such as CB Xavien Howard, S Bobby McCain and DT Raekwon McMillan left the defense decimated. Journeyman QB Ryan Fitzpatrick was signed to manage the offense and the team stumbled to a 0-7 record before rallying to win five of their final nine games. With some newly signed defensive free agents in the 2020 offseason that fit more of what Flores wanted to run, the 2020 Miami team did a complete 180, doubling the amount of wins with 10 behind a Top 10 defense spearheaded by Flores.
Here are some of the key defensive metrics of that 2020 Dolphins defense compared to 2019, with the Vikings 2022 defensive metrics also displayed:
Key takeaways:
- Right away you can see that Flores' first year in 2019 was horrible as Miam's defense ranked last in DVOA, PPG Allowed, Total Yds Allowed and were near the bottom in nearly every other key defensive metric.
- The 2020 turnaround was remarkable as Miami ranked 11th in DVOA and 6th in PPG Allowed - they allowed nearly 10 pts less per-game and nearly 500 less total yards vs the prior season.
- The key drivers were turnovers (ranked 1st overall), getting off the field on 3rd down (they decreased the % that their opponents converted 3rd downs by over 10%), increased QB pressure (dead last in '19 to 11th overall in '20) and improving their red zone defensive efficiency.
- Outside of turnovers and Opp 3rd Down Conv %, the 2022 Vikings defense unfortunately closely resembled the 2019 Dolphins, ranking near the bottom in DVOA, Total Yds Allowed, Opp Red Zone Scoring % (they didn't just "bend", they "broke", too) and QB Pressure %.
Defensive Roster Breakdowns: 2020 Dolphins to 2023 Vikings
Now that we can see the key areas that Flores was able to focus on to turn around the Miami defense, what did the defensive roster look like in 2020 for Miami and how does that compare to what the Vikings 2023 defensive roster could be?
Here is a look at both rosters with the # of yrs experience, snaps played and PFF grade during that last season:
Key takeaways:
- The 2020 Dolphins were very healthy - the avg # of games played by their 25-man Defensive Roster was 14, compared to just an avg of 11 games played by Vikings players in 2022.
- The 2020 Dolphins were a relatively young unit with the avg yrs of experience being 2.4. The 2023 Vikings defensive roster has an avg of 1+ more yrs of experience, with the OLB/ILB players nearly having 2 more yrs of experience. However, if you take away Harrison Smith's 11 yrs, the Vikings avg age of the DB unit drops to just 1.6 yrs, and that's counting Joejuan Williams who may not make that final 53-man roster.
- The obvious strength of that 2020 Miami group was the DE group, with veteran OLB's (Shaq Lawson and Andrew Van Ginkel) along with their starting CB's in X Howard and B Jones. The increased pressure % referenced earlier came from that DE/OLB group. The 2023 Vikings have a similar strength in their OLB group (if both Hunter and Zadarius are on the roster), but their DE group without Tomlinson clearly isn't as strong as what Miami had in 2020.
- The Dolpins defensive players in 2020 played an avg of 44% of the def snaps vs. the Vikings 2023 roster who played just an avg of 31% of their team's def snaps in 2022 - the LB core behind Hicks and obviously the rookies in the secondary along with Cine account for the majority of that difference.
- The DB group as a "whole" is going to be key for the Vikings in 2023 because the CB group themselves are dratically less-experienced and the 2022 Vikings were already ranked 31st in passing yds allowed. The 2020 Dolphins really leaned on their starting CB group, something the Vikings don't have, and Flores is going to have to utilize the safeties in this secondary to prevent big plays from the opposing offense.
- Even though the team defensive statistics for Miami were dramatically improved in 2020, it was more of a total team effort vs individual PFF scores: their avg individual def PFF grade was just under 60, whereas the Vikings were nearly 7 pts higher at 66.5.
Conclusion
In regards to the question posed earlier on whether Flores can improve the Vikings 2022 defense in a similar fashion as he did from 2019-2020 in Miami, I believe the answer to that question is "yes". They Vikings are coming from a slightly better spot in 2023 than the 2019 Dolphins - they already generate turnovers and their Opp 3rd Down Conv % is also starting from a better position. Of course, the counter to that is the 2022 Vikings allowed chunks of yards on early downs that attributed to their 31st ranking in Total/Passing Yds Allowed, and that might seem like futher trouble given the lack of NFL experience with their young CB group...
...but as we can see from the total defensive statistics and individual PFF grades for the Dolphins in 2020, it was definitely more of a total team effort vs a few individuals - the players on the Vikings 2023 defensive roster had higher individual PFF grades and although they might not have the same level of snaps played, they have more NFL years of experience than the 2020 Dolphins had which leads me to conclude that a good NFL defensive coach can take a solid group of individual players and get them to play better team defense overall.
Further, Flores wasn't allowed to shape the 2019 Dolphins defense to what he wanted to run due to lack of personnel (Grier traded away some key players and they only added Christian Wilkens in the Draft) and injuries; it took some key free agent acquisitions in 2020 and a healthy team in 2020 for Flores to finally run the defense he wanted. The Vikings aren't waiting until 2024 to get Flores involved in key defensive decisions: many of the key defensive personnel decisions this offseason - from the release of Kendricks, to the signings of Murphy & Davenport to the defensive prospects added via the 2023 Draft - had Flores' fingerprints all over them.
The Vikings 2023 defense might not experienec quite the turnaround the 2020 Dolphins did, but if Flores can take a 31st ranked unit and get them up in the ballpark of 15th-20th ranked overall in 2023, as long as the O'Connell and offense continue to consistently progress (which they should given the continutity of the personnel and another year of O'Connell/Phillips), the Vikings should continue to be a competitive team in 2023 with an experienced Defensive Coordinator in Brian Flores who has proven in getting team-orientated results..
...and that's why Flores was likely the most significant offseason acquisition for the Vikings in 2023.
... and neither is this Chris guy.