Clutch or Cursed?

Reignman
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Clutch or Cursed? Sept 30, 2017 18:45:24 GMT -6 Funkytown and Oracle Bone Diviner like this

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Post by Reignman on Sept 30, 2017 18:45:24 GMT -6

So which teams have completed the late comebacks and which ones have blown the late leads most often from 2002-2016 (including playoffs)? Well if I've done this right, then here are the results.

           AFTER 3Q      <5 MINUTES     <2 MINUTES     <1MINUTE       <30 SECONDS    <5 SECONDS        TOTAL
         CB-CH  RATIO   CB-CH  RATIO   CB-CH  RATIO   CB-CH  RATIO   CB-CH  RATIO   CB-CH  RATIO    CB-CH  RATIO
 1. N.E  22-11  0.667   21-11  0.656   15-10  0.600   12-4   0.750    6-3   0.667    2-1   0.667    78-40  0.661
 2. IND  26-12  0.684   25-12  0.676   16-8   0.667   11-7   0.611    6-4   0.600    3-4   0.429    87-47  0.649
 3. PIT  19-9   0.679   27-17  0.614   16-11  0.593   13-10  0.565    9-8   0.529    4-1   0.800    88-56  0.611
 4. DAL  24-20  0.545   33-21  0.611   21-16  0.568   16-11  0.593   11-6   0.647    6-1   0.857   111-75  0.597
 5. NYJ  17-15  0.531   20-11  0.645   16-10  0.615   10-8   0.556    8-5   0.615    4-3   0.571    75-52  0.591
 6. ARZ  23-13  0.639   19-12  0.613    8-8   0.500    5-5   0.500    5-5   0.500    2-2   0.500    62-45  0.579
 7. DET  19-25  0.432   27-21  0.563   21-16  0.568   17-8   0.680   14-6   0.700    8-4   0.667   106-80  0.570
 8. ATL  14-10  0.583   19-15  0.559   15-12  0.556   10-9   0.526    9-7   0.563    4-4   0.500    71-57  0.555
 9. DEN  18-18  0.500   18-12  0.600   14-10  0.583    9-8   0.529    7-5   0.583    2-2   0.500    68-55  0.553
10. TEN  15-13  0.536   19-18  0.514   11-11  0.500    8-6   0.571    7-4   0.636    3-1   0.750    63-53  0.543
11. JAX  14-16  0.467   19-18  0.514   16-11  0.593   11-7   0.611    6-7   0.462    4-3   0.571    70-62  0.530
12. LAR  18-18  0.500   14-18  0.438   13-10  0.565   11-7   0.611    7-5   0.583    4-2   0.667    67-60  0.528
13. CAR  16-18  0.471   21-20  0.512   15-11  0.577   10-9   0.526    6-5   0.545    4-2   0.667    72-65  0.526
14. CIN  15-15  0.500   19-15  0.559   10-13  0.435    8-9   0.471    5-6   0.455    2-2   0.500    59-60  0.496
15. CHI  22-19  0.537   19-23  0.452   13-17  0.433   10-12  0.455    9-8   0.529    4-3   0.571    77-82  0.484
16. NYG  27-13  0.675   16-23  0.410   11-18  0.379    7-11  0.389    6-8   0.429    1-3   0.250    68-76  0.472
17. SEA  18-17  0.514   21-17  0.553   12-13  0.480    6-10  0.375    4-8   0.333    0-4   0.000    61-69  0.469
18. S.F  15-22  0.405   20-22  0.476   14-11  0.560    8-10  0.444    5-7   0.417    3-2   0.600    65-74  0.468
19. T.B  17-16  0.515   20-22  0.476   16-17  0.485   12-13  0.480    8-10  0.444    1-7   0.125    74-85  0.465
20. BAL  14-14  0.500   19-27  0.413   15-20  0.429   13-14  0.481    9-10  0.474    6-4   0.600    76-89  0.461
21. K.C  15-16  0.484   16-19  0.457   11-16  0.407    8-13  0.381    7-9   0.438    5-2   0.714    62-75  0.453
21. MIA  12-21  0.364   18-18  0.500   14-13  0.519   10-12  0.455    7-8   0.467    1-3   0.250    62-75  0.453
23. LAC  20-23  0.465   18-28  0.391   14-17  0.452   13-10  0.565    8-8   0.500    0-4   0.000    73-90  0.448
24. N.O  15-13  0.536   22-21  0.512   15-17  0.469    9-14  0.391    4-12  0.250    3-7   0.300    68-84  0.447
25. MIN  15-17  0.469   14-19  0.424   10-16  0.385    8-10  0.444    8-7   0.533    4-5   0.444    59-74  0.444
26. CLE  13-26  0.333   17-20  0.459   13-16  0.448   11-12  0.478    8-7   0.533    5-5   0.500    67-86  0.438
27. OAK  11-12  0.478   16-17  0.485   12-13  0.480    6-10  0.375    3-8   0.273    1-4   0.200    49-64  0.434
28. HOU  13-20  0.394   13-17  0.433    9-11  0.450    6-8   0.429    5-7   0.417    3-2   0.600    49-65  0.430
29. G.B  15-18  0.455   14-20  0.412   10-11  0.476    3-7   0.300    2-5   0.286    2-3   0.400    46-64  0.418
30. BUF  17-23  0.425   10-23  0.303    9-16  0.360    9-10  0.474    8-6   0.571    5-3   0.625    58-81  0.417
31. PHI  18-19  0.486   15-21  0.417    9-13  0.409    3-8   0.273    3-7   0.300    1-4   0.200    49-72  0.405
32. WAS  11-26  0.297   13-24  0.351   10-12  0.455    6-7   0.462    5-4   0.556    2-2   0.500    47-75  0.385

CB = comeback
CH = choke
green = best in that category
red = worst in that category

A comeback is when you trail by 1 or more points at the given time (or less) and win the game, even if it goes to OT. And a choke is if you lead by 1 or more points at the given time (or less) and lose the game. The TOTAL category is just all of the other categories added up so I could rank them, and not actually their total number of comebacks/chokes.

Last Edit: Sept 30, 2017 18:45:38 GMT -6 by Reignman

Aug 8, 2024 18:42:12 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

if sitting and watching something versus actually doing it made a person great at it, Reignman would be the next Ron Jeremy.

Reignman
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Clutch or Cursed? Sept 30, 2017 19:24:20 GMT -6 Funkytown and Minniman like this

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Post by Reignman on Sept 30, 2017 19:24:20 GMT -6

Vikings Choke Log:

YEAR  WK OPPONENT  LEAD  CLOCK  DAGGER                                                              FINAL
2002   1  at CHI  23-20   0:28  David Terrell 9 yard pass from Jim Miller (Paul Edinger kick)       23-27
2002   2     BUF  39-39    OT   Peerless Price 48 yard pass from Drew Bledsoe                       39-45 (led 39-36 until 0:00)
2002  10     NYG  20-19   2:43  Tiki Barber 8 yard rush (Marcellus Rivers pass from Kerry Collins)  20-27
2002  14  at G.B  22-20   1:06  Tony Fisher 14 yard rush                                            22-26
2003  17  at ARZ  17-12   0:00  Nate Poole 28 yard pass from Josh McCown (pass failed)              17-18
2004  16     G.B  31-31   0:00  Ryan Longwell 29 yard field goal                                    31-34 (led 31-24 until 3:34)
2006   3     CHI  16-12   1:53  Rashied Davis 24 yard pass from Rex Grossman (Robbie Gould kick)    16-19
2006  16  at G.B   7-6    1:34  Dave Rayner 44 yard field goal                                       7-9
2011   2     T.B  20-17   0:31  LeGarrette Blount 4 yard rush (Connor Barth kick)                   20-24
2011  13     DEN  32-32   0:00  Matt Prater 23 yard field goal                                      32-35 (led 32-29 until 1:33)
2013   2  at CHI  30-24   0:10  Martellus Bennett 16 yard pass from Jay Cutler (Robbie Gould kick)  30-31
2013   9  at DAL  23-20   0:35  Dwayne Harris 7 yard pass from Tony Romo (Dan Bailey kick)          23-27
2013  14  at BAL  26-22   0:04  Marlon Brown 9 yard pass from Joe Flacco (Justin Tucker kick)       26-29
2013   3     CLE  27-24   0:51  Jordan Cameron 7 yard pass from Brian Hoyer (Spencer Lanning kick)  27-31
2014   7  at BUF  16-10   0:01  Sammy Watkins 2 yard pass from Kyle Orton (Dan Carpenter kick)      16-17
2014  15  at DET  14-13   3:38  Matt Prater 33 yard field goal                                      14-16
2014  16  at MIA  35-35   0:41  Safety Punt blocked by Terrence Fede out of bounds in the end zone. 35-37 (led 35-28 until 1:11)
2016   9     DET  16-16    OT   Golden Tate 28 yard pass from Matthew Stafford                      16-22 (led 16-13 until 0:00)
2016  12  at DET  13-13   0:00  Matt Prater 40 yard field goal                                      13-16 (led 13-10 until 1:45)

Vikings Clutch Log:

YEAR  WK OPPONENT TRAIL  CLOCK  DAGGER                                                              FINAL
2002  15  at N.O  24-31   0:05  Randy Moss 13 yard pass from Culpepper (two point pass successful)  32-31
2005   7     G.B  20-20   0:00  Paul Edinger 56 yard field goal                                     23-20 (trailed 13-17 until 3:10)
2006   5     DET  16-17   3:00  Ryan Longwell 20 yard field goal                                    26-17
2008   6     DET   9-10   0:09  Ryan Longwell 26 yard field goal                                    12-10
2008  10     G.B  21-27   2:22  Adrian Peterson 29 yard rush (Ryan Longwell kick)                   28-27
2008  17     NYG  17-19   0:00  Ryan Longwell 50 yard field goal                                    20-19
2009   3     S.F  20-24   0:02  Greg Lewis 32 yard pass from Brett Favre (Ryan Longwell kick)       27-24
2009   6     BAL  30-31   1:56  Ryan Longwell 31 yard field goal                                    33-31
2010   9     ARZ  24-24    OT   Ryan Longwell 35 yard field goal                                    27-24 (trailed 17-24 until 0:27)
2012   1     JAX  23-23    OT   Blair Walsh 38 yard field goal                                      26-23 (trailed 20-23 until 0:00)
2013  13     CHI  20-20    OT   Blair Walsh 34 yard field goal                                      23-20 (trailed 17-20 until 0:20)
2014   8  at T.B  13-13    OT   Anthony Barr 27 yard defensive fumble return                        19-13 (trailed 10-13 until 0:00)
2014   9     WAS  21-26   3:27  Matt Asiata 1 yard rush (Matt Asiata run)                           29-26
2015   8  at CHI  20-20   0:00  Blair Walsh 36 yard field goal                                      23-20 (trailed 13-20 until 1:49)

Last Edit: Sept 30, 2017 19:24:40 GMT -6 by Reignman

Aug 8, 2024 18:42:12 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

if sitting and watching something versus actually doing it made a person great at it, Reignman would be the next Ron Jeremy.

Reignman
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Clutch or Cursed? Sept 30, 2017 19:30:32 GMT -6 Funkytown likes this

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Post by Reignman on Sept 30, 2017 19:30:32 GMT -6

Our clutch log isn't nearly as sexy as our choke log lol. And I don't mean in terms of there being fewer, they just look more routine. Most are last second FG's. Only 2 last second game winning TD's in the past 16 years. Meanwhile we've allowed 8 game losing TD's in that time. And we're definitely not clutch on the road. Wow, that's almost depressing. We went 12 years without winning a road game in the clutch until my avatar happened haha.

Aug 8, 2024 18:42:12 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

if sitting and watching something versus actually doing it made a person great at it, Reignman would be the next Ron Jeremy.

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Clutch or Cursed? Sept 30, 2017 22:12:15 GMT -6 Reignman likes this

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Post by Deleted on Sept 30, 2017 22:12:15 GMT -6

Sept 30, 2017 19:30:32 GMT -6 Reignman said:

Our clutch log isn't nearly as sexy as our choke log lol. And I don't mean in terms of there being fewer, they just look more routine. Most are last second FG's. Only 2 last second game winning TD's in the past 16 years. Meanwhile we've allowed 8 game losing TD's in that time. And we're definitely not clutch on the road. Wow, that's almost depressing. We went 12 years without winning a road game in the clutch until my avatar happened haha.

A reflection of the poor QB situation we've had.

Look at the top three teams on the first list:

N.E;Ind;Pit

Brady;Luck;Big Ben

Funkytown Owner Purple Pain Big Dog Posts: 67,552 Likes: 31,478 Fan Since: 1998	Clutch or Cursed? Sept 30, 2017 22:22:01 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by Funkytown on Sept 30, 2017 22:22:01 GMT -6 That doesn't seem right for GB, but I dig it. Can I see their choke log for my own viewing pleasure?

Reignman
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Clutch or Cursed? Sept 30, 2017 23:07:17 GMT -6

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Post by Reignman on Sept 30, 2017 23:07:17 GMT -6

I didn't think the GB part looked right at first either, but then I remembered researching Aaron Rodgers comeback ability once upon a time and it wasn't all that impressive. When the Packers were trailing at any point in the 4th quarter Rodgers had like only 1 comeback or something in his career. Lucky for the Packers they don't find themselves trailing all that often in the 4th, but yeah he's surprisingly not very clutch. Until last Sunday he had been 0-7 in OT games. I'll post their choke log later. I created the chart using 65000 lines of data in excel, so I did the Vikings log manually just to make sure I got my formulas right, because our comeback to choke ratio didn't look right to me lol. Could have swore we were more cursed than that. Gotta check your work kids.

Aug 8, 2024 18:42:12 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

if sitting and watching something versus actually doing it made a person great at it, Reignman would be the next Ron Jeremy.

Reignman
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Clutch or Cursed? Oct 1, 2017 0:42:18 GMT -6

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Post by Reignman on Oct 1, 2017 0:42:18 GMT -6

Packers Choke Log:

YEAR  WK OPPONENT  LEAD  CLOCK  DAGGER                                                              FINAL
2003   6     KAN  34-34    OT   Eddie Kennison 51 yard pass from Trent Green                        34-40 (led 34-31 until 0:01)
2003  10     PHI  14-10   0:27  Todd Pinkston 6 yard pass from Donovan McNabb (David Akers kick)    14-17
2003  DP  at PHI  17-17    OT   David Akers 31 yard field goal                                      17-20 (led 17-14 until 0:05)
2005   7  at MIN  20-20   0:00  Paul Edinger 56 yard field goal                                     20-23 (led 17-13 until 3:10)
2005  12  at PHI  14-13   4:31  David Akers 37 yard field goal                                      14-19
2008   4  at T.B  21-20   2:26  Matt Bryant 24 yard field goal                                      21-30
2008  10  at MIN  27-21   2:22  Adrian Peterson 29 yard rush (Ryan Longwell kick)                   27-28
2008  13     CAR  31-28   1:30  DeAngelo Williams 1 yard rush (John Kasay kick)                     31-35
2008  15  at JAX  16-14   1:56  Maurice Jones-Drew 2 yard rush (run failed)                         16-20
2008  16  at CHI  17-17    OT   Robbie Gould 38 yard field goal                                     17-20 (led 17-10 until 3:11)
2009   9  at T.B  28-23   4:14  Sammie Stroughter 7 yard pass from Josh Freeman (two points)        28-38
2009  15  at PIT  36-30   0:00  Mike Wallace 19 yard pass from Ben Roethlisberger (Jeff Reed kick)  36-37
2010   3  at CHI  17-17   0:04  Robbie Gould 19 yard field goal                                     17-20 (led 17-14 until 3:59)
2010   5  at WAS  13-13    OT   Graham Gano 33 yard field goal                                      13-16 (led 13-10 until 1:07)
2012   3  at SEA  12-7    0:00  Golden Tate 24 yard pass from Russell Wilson (Steven Hauschka kick) 12-14
2012   5  at IND  27-22   0:35  Reggie Wayne 4 yard pass from Andrew Luck (Donald Brown run)        27-30
2013   3  at CIN  30-27   3:47  Reggie Nelson 58 yard fumble return (Mike Nugent kick)              30-34
2014  CC  at SEA  22-22    OT   Jermaine Kearse 35 yard pass from Russell Wilson                    22-28 (led 19-14 until 1:25)
2015  DP  at ARZ  20-20    OT   Larry Fitzgerald 5 yard pass from Carson Palmer                     20-26 (led 13-10 until 3:44)
2016   8  at ATL  32-26   0:31  Mohamed Sanu 11 yard pass from Matt Ryan (Matt Bryant kick)         32-33

Packers Clutch Log:

YEAR  WK OPPONENT TRAIL  CLOCK  DAGGER                                                              FINAL
2002   1     ATL  34-34    OT   Ryan Longwell 34 yard field goal                                    37-34 (trailed 27-31 until 1:10)
2002   4     CAR  10-14   4:10  Donald Driver 22 yard pass from Brett Favre (Ryan Longwell kick)    17-14
2002  14     MIN  20-22   1:06  Tony Fisher 14 yard rush                                            26-22
2004  16  at MIN  31-31   0:00  Ryan Longwell 29 yard field goal                                    34-31 (trailed 24-31 until 3:34)
2006  16     MIN   6-7    1:34  Dave Rayner 44 yard field goal                                       9-7
2007   3     S.D  17-21   2:03  Greg Jennings 57 yard pass from Brett Favre (Mason Crosby kick)     31-24
2007   9  at K.C  16-22   3:05  Charles Woodson 46 yard interception return (Mason Crosby kick)     33-22
2009   1     CHI  13-15   1:11  Greg Jennings 50 yard pass from Aaron Rodgers (two points)          21-15
2011  17     DET  38-41   1:10  Jermichael Finley 4 yard pass from Matt Flynn (Mason Crosby kick)   45-41
2012  11  at DET  14-20   1:55  Randall Cobb 22 yard pass from Aaron Rodgers (Mason Crosby kick)    24-20
2013  15  at DAL  31-36   1:31  Eddie Lacy 1 yard rush (pass failed)                                37-36
2013  17  at CHI  27-28   0:38  Randall Cobb 48 yard pass from Aaron Rodgers (pass failed)          33-28
2014   6  at MIA  20-24   0:03  Andrew Quarless 4 yard pass from Aaron Rodgers (Mason Crosby kick)  27-24
2015  13  at DET  21-23   0:00  Richard Rodgers 61 yard pass from Aaron Rodgers                     27-23

Aug 8, 2024 18:42:12 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

if sitting and watching something versus actually doing it made a person great at it, Reignman would be the next Ron Jeremy.

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Clutch or Cursed? Oct 1, 2017 10:04:00 GMT -6 Reignman likes this

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Post by Minniman on Oct 1, 2017 10:04:00 GMT -6

Sept 30, 2017 19:24:20 GMT -6 Reignman said:

Vikings Choke Log:

2014  15  at DET  14-13   3:38  Matt Prater 33 yard field goal                                      14-16
2014  16  at MIA  35-35   0:41  Safety Punt blocked by Terrence Fede out of bounds in the end zone. 35-37 (led 35-28 until 1:11)
2016   9     DET  16-16    OT   Golden Tate 28 yard pass from Matthew Stafford                      16-22 (led 16-13 until 0:00)
2016  12  at DET  13-13   0:00  Matt Prater 40 yard field goal                                      13-16 (led 13-10 until 1:45)

Maybe Zimmer could keep the pressure on instead of going in a prevent shell way too early.

Big fail for the Z-fence.

Logic is the beginning of wisdom - not the end.

Funkytown Owner Purple Pain Big Dog Posts: 67,552 Likes: 31,478 Fan Since: 1998	Clutch or Cursed? Oct 1, 2017 16:17:52 GMT -6 Danchat likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by Funkytown on Oct 1, 2017 16:17:52 GMT -6 We weren't clutch today!

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Clutch or Cursed? Oct 1, 2017 16:30:37 GMT -6

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Post by Reignman on Oct 1, 2017 16:30:37 GMT -6

Oct 1, 2017 16:17:52 GMT -6 Funkytown said:

We weren't clutch today! *deadhorse*

Nope, but the Lions sure were. I've realized I need to somehow factor in defensive plays/fumbles/missed FG's that cost a team a chance to win. In our "clutch" win against the Ravens in 2009, they missed a GW FG at the buzzer. There have been plenty of those, right Norwood and Walsh? I just don't have that kind of data though.

Aug 8, 2024 18:42:12 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

if sitting and watching something versus actually doing it made a person great at it, Reignman would be the next Ron Jeremy.

Deleted Ghosted Member Posts: 0 Likes:	Clutch or Cursed? Oct 1, 2017 18:43:52 GMT -6 Funkytown likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by Deleted on Oct 1, 2017 18:43:52 GMT -6 Larry Fitzgerald =Mr Clutch

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Clutch or Cursed? Oct 2, 2017 18:11:47 GMT -6

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Post by Funkytown on Oct 2, 2017 18:11:47 GMT -6

Oct 1, 2017 16:30:37 GMT -6 Reignman said:

Oct 1, 2017 16:17:52 GMT -6 Funkytown said:

We weren't clutch today! *deadhorse*

Nope, but the Lions sure were. I've realized I need to somehow factor in defensive plays/fumbles/missed FG's that cost a team a chance to win. In our "clutch" win against the Ravens in 2009, they missed a GW FG at the buzzer. There have been plenty of those, right Norwood and Walsh? I just don't have that kind of data though.

Yep, I was at that game. Whew! We skanked out that win! We fell apart at the end, per usual. Hauschka saved the day. lol.

Can we finish the NFC North out with the stats on Chicago and Detroit? ...too many clutch wins against our Vikings in recent memory, that's for sure. Yuck. I didn't need your data to remind me, but thanks... lol That Vikings choke log hurts. Hurts real bad. >:(

Last Edit: Oct 2, 2017 18:15:56 GMT -6 by Funkytown

Funkytown Owner Purple Pain Big Dog Posts: 67,552 Likes: 31,478 Fan Since: 1998	Clutch or Cursed? Oct 6, 2017 19:09:22 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by Funkytown on Oct 6, 2017 19:09:22 GMT -6 Related:

Deleted Ghosted Member Posts: 0 Likes:	Clutch or Cursed? Oct 6, 2017 21:11:58 GMT -6 Reignman, Funkytown, and 1 more like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2017 21:11:58 GMT -6 Okay.... where's the effin "not like" button??

Reignman
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Clutch or Cursed? Oct 6, 2017 21:36:58 GMT -6

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Post by Reignman on Oct 6, 2017 21:36:58 GMT -6

Oct 6, 2017 19:09:22 GMT -6 Funkytown said:

The last time the Lions won on the road after scoring just 14 or fewer points was in 2005 at New Orleans 13-12 (91 road games ago). Since 1970 the Lions are 11-141-2 (.078) on the road when scoring 14 or fewer points. Yay Vikings!

On the flip side, the last time the Vikings lost at home after allowing 14 or fewer points was .... I don't want to talk about it. And the time before that was in 2010 vs the Dolphins 14-10. Since 1970 the Vikings are 138-12-1 (.917) when allowing 14 or fewer at home.

We also lost to the Lions 14-13 in 1997, so they got us twice in recent memory. And 17-3 and 16-14 in 2014 which are close. Why can't we score points against this team?

Aug 8, 2024 18:42:12 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

if sitting and watching something versus actually doing it made a person great at it, Reignman would be the next Ron Jeremy.