Hunter's Contract Situation 2.0 - one-year deal worth $20M

You know spring has arrived when we’re talking about Danielle Hunter’s contract.

When Hunter signed a five-year, $72 million deal in 2018, it quickly turned out to be so team friendly that there was almost instantly discussion about how the Vikings would eventually need to do an overhaul. He signed the contract after a 7.0 sack season in 2017 and then followed that act with 14.5 sacks in 2018, putting him among the league’s elite rushers. And then he did it again with 14.5 more sacks in 2020, making Hunter one of the biggest bargains in the NFL having only earned $10 million in cash for his brilliant 2019 effort (per OverTheCap.com).

Before the 2020 season the Vikings restructured his deal and then he suffered a season-ending neck injury in training camp. That took away his leverage to force the team into a new extension so instead they restructured again, putting a $5.6 million bonus in his pocket. Still he only made $12.7 million cash in 2021 (per OTC) but a torn pec ended his season midway through the year and again put the Vikings in position to argue that a long-term deal was risky. Last year new management picked up an $18 million bonus to keep him around short term — maybe as a good-will gesture for future negotiations.

Now there appears to be no more ways to push the Hunter extension down the road. He’s scheduled to make $4.9 million, about one-fifth of the highest paid rusher in the league despite having posted 10.5 sacks and top-10 pressure production by PFF metrics.

On Monday, ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reported that Hunter is not attending the Vikings’ offseason program and that his absence is “likely” due to his contract.

So the Vikings and Hunter have reached the end of a winding road and it’s decision time. Will they make him one of the highest paid pass rushers in the NFL or trade him?

You could say that the Vikings could force him to play since he is under contract but that’s not really an option. It doesn’t make much sense to hang onto an unhappy player who could be worth future draft capital on the trade market. Last year the Broncos traded Bradley Chubb to Miami for a first and fourth round picks, for example.

It’s also favorable to trade him after June 1 in comparison to letting him walk in free agency next year. If he’s moved this summer, the Vikings take on $7.6 million in dead cap in 2023 and create $5.5 million in space. In 2024 and 2025 they eat $5.6 million. If they let him walk as a free agent after next year they take on $11.2 million in dead space in 2024 — a year where they may be charged $28 million in dead cap if Kirk Cousins exits as well.

In the recent past the Vikings haven’t let many (any?) star players in their prime walk when contract issues arose. Whether it was Kyle Rudolph, Anthony Barr, Dalvin Cook or Harrison Smith, they always found a way to keep them in house. Only when players weren’t performing at peak levels i.e. Xavier Rhodes/Linval Joseph or recently Eric Kendricks/Adam Thielen did the Vikings let them out the door.

It’s very realistic to think the Vikings could extend Hunter in the coming months. Oftentimes when there has been contract discomfort, it has been resolved before the season begins. In 2020 Cook and the Vikings worked on a contract extension until nearly the season’s kickoff.

If that ends up being the case, what type of contract would Hunter be seeking? In 2020 Chargers star Joey Bosa scored a five-year, $135 million deal with $78 million fully guaranteed. He is one of only four edge rushers to clear $50 million. Based on his history of dominant play when healthy (45.5 sacks in his last 56 games), Hunter has an argument to get a pay check in that range. A rough estimate could be somewhere around four years, $90 million with $50 million fully guaranteed.

Would the Vikings want to go to that level of commitment? Age shouldn’t be a serious concern. Hunter is 28, meaning a long-term extension would reasonably take him through age 32 or 33. There have been plenty of pass rushers who have thrived into their 30s but some concern may still exist over his neck injury in 2020.

Other considerations exist beyond the player, price and injury history. Justin Jefferson and Christian Darrisaw are elite players at their positions as well and will need contract extensions. Brian O’Neill already got an extension that makes him one of the most expensive players at his position. Do they want another player with one of the highest contracts in the league?

How does Za’Darius Smith’s unhappiness with his contract play into the mix? Was the Marcus Davenport signing a sign that Hunter might be moved? Do they believe Patrick Jones or DJ Wonnum could take over a full-time spot in Brian Flores’s defense? How does Flores view him as an outside linebacker?

The timeline matters too. If the Vikings view 2023 and 2024 as transition years for the roster, they may prefer to get draft picks back for Hunter in order to get younger and cheaper in key spots.

The Hunter contract situation has a lot of moving parts. There’s no easy way to guess which way it will be resolved but we do know that resolution has to be coming later on this summer because Hunter’s absence from offseason activities is a clear message that action is required.