Keeping The Status Quo 2.0?

Minnesota Vikings

Purge the roster

Let's face it: The 2022 Vikings weren't actually any good -- they were 27th overall in DVOA.

The Vikings also face a salary-cap quagmire: They're $24 million in the red, with much of the dough tied up in 30ish-year-old veterans. Adding another veteran -- and his salary -- in a "bold move" wouldn't propel the Vikings toward the Super Bowl. It's more likely to capsize the longboat.

The boldest move general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah could make is to reverse course, repair the cap situation and usher in a youth movement. Release Eric Kendricks (probably gone anyway), Jordan Hicks (same), Harrison Smith (still good, but fading) and aging role players such as C.J. Ham. Trade Adam Thielen while he still has some market value. Let Patrick Peterson and Garrett Bradbury walk as free agents. Tell Kirk Cousins to update his LinkedIn for 2024. Make Justin Jefferson the highest-paid wide receiver and let the pre-rebuild commence.

Sounds unappealing, doesn't it?

@talkingvikings Leaving the combine, what is the general vibe of this team that you've received from KAM, KOC, etc compared to last year, or even the last combine with Zim/Spielman?

Without putting words in their mouths, it feels like they are living in reality about the fact that next year is going to be harder to repeat the same results and it seemed they were preparing fans for the possibility of losing some of their favorite players. I didn’t get any sense that they want to tear it down but there were no hints that the QB situation is close to a resolution at the moment and it seems that Cousins and the Vikings have different ideas of what any extension should look like. Again, that’s the vibe, not a report.

Zimmer was great at the Combine. Very open and straightforward about how he felt about things. It was always my favorite conversation of the year with him.

Skol_Doc What was the most surprising takeaway from your trip to Indy?

I won’t say it was a huge surprise but I wasn’t sure how much Kwesi Adofo-Mensah was going to say about the direction. I thought overall he was quite insightful about their process. Nobody expects them to show all the cards but fans want to understand how they’re going about the decisions. Aside from that, probably the lack of debate about Anthony Richardson. I anticipated lots of people wanting to make him into this year’s divisive prospect, yet it seems like most draft folks are on the same page that he will be picked high.

The Vikings’ decision-makers believe in quarterback Kirk Cousins. They do not take his accuracy, durability or persistence for granted. Nor are they naive about the fact that Cousins has not operated the same system with the same play caller in consecutive years in more than a half-decade.

“There’s a reason why I feel so strongly about Kirk,” coach Kevin O’Connell said. “I’ve been very honest about that. I believe in him as a player and was really proud of the way he played this year.”

But how much does he believe in his quarterback, especially in the long term? We may get an answer to that question in the next 10 days.

Cousins’ roster bonus kicks in on March 17. He remains under contract only through the 2023 season. Serious belief would be committing to Cousins for multiple years. Middling belief would be a short-term extension or even allowing Cousins to ride out his current contract. Last week, Adofo-Mensah seemed to lean toward the latter.

“We want flexibility,” the general manager said.

Beyond quarterback, the position group that could cause the most seismic shift in the year-over-year outlook for the Vikings is edge rusher.

Za’Darius Smith and Danielle Hunter are both entering the final years of their contracts. Both players ranked in the top 10 in pressures in 2022. Moreover, both players tallied those pressures primarily on four-man rushes without stunts or games.

Both players have been immensely valuable. And right now, neither Smith’s nor Hunter’s 2023 salary ranks in the top 20 among NFL edge rushers. This explains the Vikings’ dilemma: Extend each player for equitable value or problems may ensue.

The Vikings must consider multiple factors as they weigh whether or not to offer extensions, including age, injury history and systematic fit.

Smith is 31, while Hunter is 28. Smith has navigated numerous injuries in the past couple of years. Hunter, meanwhile, suffered a torn pectoral muscle in 2021 but did not miss a game this past season. Systematically, Smith may be more versatile on the interior. Hunter, though, might be more dangerous, swooping around from the outside.

These are some of the key considerations for a defense in need of a revamp. Remove one of these pass rushers, and Minnesota will need replacements beyond D.J. Wonnum and Patrick Jones II.

It doesn’t feel like a long-term deal with Kirk Cousins is imminent

Let’s begin with a few caveats: Not everything that’s said in Indianapolis by general managers is true and things in the NFL can change quickly. With that said, the Vikings are in a strange spot with their quarterback. He’s coming off a career high in wins in which he bonded with his head coach and was Mr. Clutch on a weekly basis yet his contract situation makes his future uncertain.

Cousins is going to be 35 next season and quarterback prices are skyrocketing, particularly with Giants QB Daniel Jones reportedly asking for $45 million per year and DeShaun Watson landing the most guaranteed money of all time last offseason. Cousins appears to be in a position to ask for much more than he got when the new regime arrived.

“From their side, they want it as certain as possible, and from our side, we want flexibility,” GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah told beat reporters. “You’re always trying to be solutions-oriented and find a way that works for both people.”

It’s hard to figure a solution that lands between Cousins wanting certainty and the Vikings wanting flexibility. Adofo-Mensah also mentioned in his podium session the quality of the roster that can be built around Cousins, which has proven to be difficult for two groups of decision makers.

Would the Vikings and Cousins’s representation simply let him go into the final year of his contract with no future deal? He’s certainly bet on himself before.

Odds seem to be increasing that Adam Thielen ends up elsewhere

The vibe from both Adofo-Mensah and Kevin O’Connell was that they are aware difficult decisions will need to be made with veteran players who were key producers on their 13-win team last season. The big question leading into the coming weeks has been: Who stays, who goes? One player has upped his chances of landing in the “goes” category: Adam Thielen. It seems that his role in the offense is an issue, which is a little bizarre considering his age and that playing a secondary role to Justin Jefferson was inevitable and helped lead them to a top-10 offense.

Thielen’s contract would cause the Vikings to eat a $13.5 million dead cap hit and only gain $6.4 million in space (per OTC) but it might be better to move on now rather than ending up with an uncomfortable situation with a future Ring of Honor player.

Andrew Krammer of the Strib wrote about the realistic possibility Thielen is elsewhere next season. ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler wrote the same thing in his Combine buzz column.

Could Dalvin Cook really be back?

The most inevitable seeming move for the Vikings in the next few weeks appeared to be cutting Dalvin Cook. He’s hitting the age where running backs traditionally fall off and

NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero said in a radio interview that he believes Cook will return to the Vikings.

The Vikings are really trying to let Justin Jefferson know they want him to sign an extension

“I don’t want to be the Vikings GM without this guy on our team, so it’s a priority,” Adofo-Mensah said. “We have to make sure we do it in an order that we can do it in given all the other decisions we have to make. It’s not just having an elite player because I think people – maybe they appreciate the talent, maybe they don’t. The human is even better. Seeing it up close every day and he just wants to win.”

The Vikings clearly want Dalvin Tomlinson back but other offers might be too high to match

The deadline for the Vikings to extend Dalvin Tomlinson before his $7.5 million dead cap hit sets in was supposed to be earlier this month but the two sides agreed to move it back. It was obvious from Adofo-Mensah’s comments that they want him back.

“Look we love Dalvin,” Adofo-Mensah said. Same thing whenever you have good players in your building and good people, you want to do everything you can to keep them. Obviously, we have a lot of decisions to make, so we’re trying to buy ourselves a little more time.”

The price tag is not going to be easy to handle, however. There are 10 DTs who make more than $16 million per year and Tomlinson is coming off his best season in terms of pressuring opposing QBs. He could comp himself to Vita Vea, who makes $17.5 million per year. That might be too rich for Minnesota’s blood, particularly because there aren’t many DTs on the market beside Javon Hargrave.

The Vikings could go with a ‘developmental QB’ in the draft

Every year you can talk yourself into an intriguing mid-to-late round quarterback. Most times those picks are basically lit on fire but last year’s Brock Purdy find might inspire some teams to take that swing. Kevin O’Connell was up front about his reasoning for meeting with QBs at the Combine.

“I do that every single year,” O’Connell said. “The guys in the draft, free agency, just looking at the landscape of the league, and then all of the quarterbacks on our roster and how we feel about our position. There’s a reason I feel so strongly about Kirk. I’ve been very honest about that. I believe in him as a player and was really proud of the way he played this year. But we always have to be evaluating.”

There are a few names the Vikings could consider, including: Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker, Purdue’s Aidan O’Connell, Fresno State’s Jake Haener, Georgia’s Stetson Bennett and Houston’s Clayton Tune.