Post by diehardtwinsfan on Feb 20, 2023 10:34:07 GMT -6
Kirk is really hard to gage in a trade because of quite honestly a complete lack of supply. The original post noted Carr. One big problem with Derrek Carr is that he's a FA right now, and will be signed (I'm guessing) within the next week. He can drag that out a bit to get needy teams a chance to free up some cap space, but Carr has zero incentive to drag that out to the new league year/draft. He's the only name on the market and has no reason to wait for competition for his services.
This means that the Vikings have to make that move right now, which also puts them at an extreme disadvantage to trading Kirk if they wanted to... and there's this pesky problem of Kirk having an NTC... Let's be real honest here, Kirk is a business man first, and you know he'd get maximum value out of that NTC if we turned around and signed Carr before agreeing to a trade (which technically cannot be done until the new league year)... I think if an FA starter is the direction we want to go in this scenario, you're setting your sites on Baker Mayfield or hoping the Packers cannot find a suiter for Rodgers and turn around and cut him. I personally don't find those options terribly attractive.
As for Kirk's value, last year, you had a few more QB's on the market in what is ultimately determined by supply and demand. This year, what do you have? Jackson I suppose could possibly get the transition tag... I'm not sure what he'd get for bidders in that situation as 2 firsts is a lot to give up for a guy who really hasn't improved off of his 2019 season. But he's probably the top trade option on the market and supposedly wants top dollars to go with it. That's Watson minus the off-field controversy. Jackson will certainly cost more than Kirk (both in a trade and in contract I suspect), and I suspect that's one someone will regret YMMV. Then what? You can probably get Erin cheap in a trade. He's also expensive, probably cooked, and might even get cut or forced to return to GB as Love's backup. Brady will probably unretire, but there's a good chance he's cooked too, but you also have to wait and take a chance that he was not serious about retiring. If the Bears draft a QB, Fields will likely be available for something less than a first, but that's not a win now move. Lance can probably be had for cheap, but that's not a win now move either. At that point, teams that want to win now (with no QB) are taking their chances with the likes of Wentz, Mayfield, Ryan, etc... That's not good company to be in.
So Kirk probably does have some value. I suspect it's a bit more than a 3rd but less than whatever Jackson ends up getting. And the flip side is that I don't think Carr is realistic at all (for the reasons above) as Kirk will still use that NTC to maximize his payout. With the Vikings being "win now" (and we probably agree that they shouldn't be) I think that means Kirk is going to be here next year and probably in 24 as well whether we like it or not unless someone really wows us with a trade offer.... and I don't think that happens.
This means that the Vikings have to make that move right now, which also puts them at an extreme disadvantage to trading Kirk if they wanted to... and there's this pesky problem of Kirk having an NTC... Let's be real honest here, Kirk is a business man first, and you know he'd get maximum value out of that NTC if we turned around and signed Carr before agreeing to a trade (which technically cannot be done until the new league year)... I think if an FA starter is the direction we want to go in this scenario, you're setting your sites on Baker Mayfield or hoping the Packers cannot find a suiter for Rodgers and turn around and cut him. I personally don't find those options terribly attractive.
As for Kirk's value, last year, you had a few more QB's on the market in what is ultimately determined by supply and demand. This year, what do you have? Jackson I suppose could possibly get the transition tag... I'm not sure what he'd get for bidders in that situation as 2 firsts is a lot to give up for a guy who really hasn't improved off of his 2019 season. But he's probably the top trade option on the market and supposedly wants top dollars to go with it. That's Watson minus the off-field controversy. Jackson will certainly cost more than Kirk (both in a trade and in contract I suspect), and I suspect that's one someone will regret YMMV. Then what? You can probably get Erin cheap in a trade. He's also expensive, probably cooked, and might even get cut or forced to return to GB as Love's backup. Brady will probably unretire, but there's a good chance he's cooked too, but you also have to wait and take a chance that he was not serious about retiring. If the Bears draft a QB, Fields will likely be available for something less than a first, but that's not a win now move. Lance can probably be had for cheap, but that's not a win now move either. At that point, teams that want to win now (with no QB) are taking their chances with the likes of Wentz, Mayfield, Ryan, etc... That's not good company to be in.
So Kirk probably does have some value. I suspect it's a bit more than a 3rd but less than whatever Jackson ends up getting. And the flip side is that I don't think Carr is realistic at all (for the reasons above) as Kirk will still use that NTC to maximize his payout. With the Vikings being "win now" (and we probably agree that they shouldn't be) I think that means Kirk is going to be here next year and probably in 24 as well whether we like it or not unless someone really wows us with a trade offer.... and I don't think that happens.
... and neither is this Chris guy.