A Plan Building Towards the Future
Feb 19, 2023 19:09:24 GMT -6
Funkytown, Uncle, and 4 more like this
Post by whoskmoon on Feb 19, 2023 19:09:24 GMT -6
This year, unlike last, it seems more fans are convinced the aging talent on this team is not good enough and they are more willing to move on. Kwesi, or rather his bosses, might not see it the same way, and are likely going to attempt run it back once again, with a few, non-impactful changes made necessary by the cap. So in an effort to appease those fans who want significant change that they aren't likely to see it with this ownership group, below is a plan with drastic changes to the team that could actually put them on a path to building a championship roster. All of these moves look towards moving on from players who will not be a part of the 2024 roster, and avoiding pushing cap hits from 2023 to 2024.
First off, the no-brainer cuts that are in every Vikings offseason plan.
Cuts
Eric Kendricks - 9.5
Jordan Hicks - 5.0
Adam Thielen - 6.5
Dalvin Cook - 7.9
CJ Ham - 3.05
Total savings: 32 million
Total cap space: + 9 million
There are some opportunities here to offer Cook and/or Thielen a restructure that achieves similar cap savings this year, but that hinders the Vikings cap space next season, something this plan attempts to avoid. Those two might make the Vikings better this season, but would not be a part of a championship roster in 2024 or 2025, so why keep them around?
Next, the cuts that are not so obvious and that will be painful for some.
Wonnum - 3
Z. Smith - 12
Dantzler - 3
Harrison Smith - 12
Total savings: 30 million
Total cap space: +39 million
Z. Smith is still a very good player, he just really began to show his age at the end of the season. Losing him will be a hit to the defense, it is just that he has no future on the team, isn't enough to make a difference, and this plan is all about the future. The same story for Harrison Smith, with the addition that he plays a position that should rarely get paid the kind of money he is getting. Wonnum and Dantzler might be considered solid depth by some and there is an argument for keeping them at their cap hits. They are just two players who have no future on this team beyond 2023, and will be taking up a roster spot and valuable playing time of guys who actually do.
The next move is the most controversial and least likely part of the plan: Trading Kirk Cousins.
Trades
Total savings: 19 million
Total cap space: +58 million
Guessing at what he might get back in a trade is difficult since it is hard to gauge how GMs around the NFL truly feel about him. Looking at similar transactions to a trade for Cousins:
Alex Smith - 3rd round pick and Kendall Fuller
Matt Ryan - 3rd round pick
That is it. He isn't as highly valued as Matt Stafford or Russel Wilson and other recent QB trades have been for guys who were much younger and who still had perceived potential. His value should be higher than Smith's and Ryan's given their circumstances when they were traded though, and the demand for a veteran QB seems to be greater than other years, so this plan has the Vikings trading him to the Jets for the 13th overall pick. A steep price for the Jets that they pay because they feel they are a QB away, and because Aaron Rodgers is staying in Green Bay.
Moving past Kirk, the Vikings are now looking to spend in free agency, extending players on the current roster, and re-signing their own free agents.
Extensions
Length/Total Cost/Cost in 2022
Justin Jefferson - 5 years/150 million/6 million
Danielle Hunter - 3 years/66 million/6 million
Hockenson - 3 years/51 million/ -5 million
Total costs: 7 million
Total cap space: + 51 million
Vikings Free Agents Re-signings
Dalvin Tomlinson - 3 years/36 million/ 6 million
Nick Mullens - 1 year/1 million/ 1 million
Total costs: 1 million
Total cap space: 49 million
Non-Viking Free Agents
Dereck Carr QB: 2 years/40 million/14 million
David Montgomery RB: 2 years/12 million/3 million
Germaine Pratt ILB: 4 years/50 million/7 million
Ben Powers G: 4 years/40 million/6 million
Cameron Sutton CB: 3 years/30 million/6 million
Dre'mont Jones DT: 2 years/15 million/4 million
Total cost: 40 million
Total cap space: 9 million
The Vikings replace Kirk and his guaranteed money with a similar QB on a contract they can walk away from easily next season if they want to (and they probably will). If that move just seems ludicrous to you, it really has little impact on 2023 roster and can be ignored. It does however significantly limit the 2024 roster, which is why I am including it. Montgomery provides a veteran presence at RB for cheap and Ben Powers provides much needed pass blocking improvement on the interior of the Oline. The Vikings would have a guard good at pass blocking on the left side who could match up with the oppositions best interior pass rusher one on one, freeing up the center to help out the right guard. This offensive lineup has the chance to be better than 2022’s offense and likely wouldn't be any worse. On the defensive side of the ball, the linebacker group will be better with Pratt and Asamoah than it was this past season, and Sutton would do nicely replacing Patrick Peterson. It is not as talented as the defense was in 2022, but hopefully a scheme change and improved coaching makes up for that.
Starting lineup before the draft:
QB: Carr
RB: Montgomery/Chandler
WR1: Jefferson
WR2: Osborne
WR3: Nailer
TE: Hockenson
LT: Darrisaw
RT: O'Neil
LG: Powers
C: Reed
RG: Cleveland
OLB: Hunter
OLB: Jones
DT: Phillips
DE:Tomlinson
DE: Tonga
ILB: Asamoah
ILB: Pratt
CB1: Sutton
CB2: Evans
CB3: Booth
SS: Booth
FS: Bynum/Mettelus
This is a very shallow roster prior to the draft, with some very obvious needs at QB, center, WR and edge rusher. It is a solid starting lineup though, and one that will compete for the North once again. The other great thing? The Vikings would be in great position in 2024 to add a couple of high priced free agents. After adding all of the free agent signings and extension, they would have 40 million in cap space in 2024, which would go up to 64 million once they cut Carr. That number is closer to 0 or worse if the Vikings continue down the path they have been the past couple of seasons.
Doing this plan one thing became very clear: the Vikings are not in a good spot this season and the team is in trouble. These are very drastic cuts, and even with an unlikely trade of the Vikings' most expensive player, it is difficult to add a lot of talent. Poor drafting has really put this team in a bad situation and it is time to reboot and start over around the Vikings core of O'Neill, Darrisaw, Hunter, TJ and JJ. They start doing that now, find at least a solid QB in the draft, and things could get better as soon as 2024. If they try to run things back, we will all be having these exact same conversations again next February and March.
First off, the no-brainer cuts that are in every Vikings offseason plan.
Cuts
Eric Kendricks - 9.5
Jordan Hicks - 5.0
Adam Thielen - 6.5
Dalvin Cook - 7.9
CJ Ham - 3.05
Total savings: 32 million
Total cap space: + 9 million
There are some opportunities here to offer Cook and/or Thielen a restructure that achieves similar cap savings this year, but that hinders the Vikings cap space next season, something this plan attempts to avoid. Those two might make the Vikings better this season, but would not be a part of a championship roster in 2024 or 2025, so why keep them around?
Next, the cuts that are not so obvious and that will be painful for some.
Wonnum - 3
Z. Smith - 12
Dantzler - 3
Harrison Smith - 12
Total savings: 30 million
Total cap space: +39 million
Z. Smith is still a very good player, he just really began to show his age at the end of the season. Losing him will be a hit to the defense, it is just that he has no future on the team, isn't enough to make a difference, and this plan is all about the future. The same story for Harrison Smith, with the addition that he plays a position that should rarely get paid the kind of money he is getting. Wonnum and Dantzler might be considered solid depth by some and there is an argument for keeping them at their cap hits. They are just two players who have no future on this team beyond 2023, and will be taking up a roster spot and valuable playing time of guys who actually do.
The next move is the most controversial and least likely part of the plan: Trading Kirk Cousins.
Trades
Total savings: 19 million
Total cap space: +58 million
Guessing at what he might get back in a trade is difficult since it is hard to gauge how GMs around the NFL truly feel about him. Looking at similar transactions to a trade for Cousins:
Alex Smith - 3rd round pick and Kendall Fuller
Matt Ryan - 3rd round pick
That is it. He isn't as highly valued as Matt Stafford or Russel Wilson and other recent QB trades have been for guys who were much younger and who still had perceived potential. His value should be higher than Smith's and Ryan's given their circumstances when they were traded though, and the demand for a veteran QB seems to be greater than other years, so this plan has the Vikings trading him to the Jets for the 13th overall pick. A steep price for the Jets that they pay because they feel they are a QB away, and because Aaron Rodgers is staying in Green Bay.
Moving past Kirk, the Vikings are now looking to spend in free agency, extending players on the current roster, and re-signing their own free agents.
Extensions
Length/Total Cost/Cost in 2022
Justin Jefferson - 5 years/150 million/6 million
Danielle Hunter - 3 years/66 million/6 million
Hockenson - 3 years/51 million/ -5 million
Total costs: 7 million
Total cap space: + 51 million
Vikings Free Agents Re-signings
Nick Mullens - 1 year/1 million/ 1 million
Total costs: 1 million
Total cap space: 49 million
Non-Viking Free Agents
Dereck Carr QB: 2 years/40 million/14 million
David Montgomery RB: 2 years/12 million/3 million
Germaine Pratt ILB: 4 years/50 million/7 million
Ben Powers G: 4 years/40 million/6 million
Cameron Sutton CB: 3 years/30 million/6 million
Dre'mont Jones DT: 2 years/15 million/4 million
Total cost: 40 million
Total cap space: 9 million
The Vikings replace Kirk and his guaranteed money with a similar QB on a contract they can walk away from easily next season if they want to (and they probably will). If that move just seems ludicrous to you, it really has little impact on 2023 roster and can be ignored. It does however significantly limit the 2024 roster, which is why I am including it. Montgomery provides a veteran presence at RB for cheap and Ben Powers provides much needed pass blocking improvement on the interior of the Oline. The Vikings would have a guard good at pass blocking on the left side who could match up with the oppositions best interior pass rusher one on one, freeing up the center to help out the right guard. This offensive lineup has the chance to be better than 2022’s offense and likely wouldn't be any worse. On the defensive side of the ball, the linebacker group will be better with Pratt and Asamoah than it was this past season, and Sutton would do nicely replacing Patrick Peterson. It is not as talented as the defense was in 2022, but hopefully a scheme change and improved coaching makes up for that.
Starting lineup before the draft:
QB: Carr
RB: Montgomery/Chandler
WR1: Jefferson
WR2: Osborne
WR3: Nailer
TE: Hockenson
LT: Darrisaw
RT: O'Neil
LG: Powers
C: Reed
RG: Cleveland
OLB: Hunter
OLB: Jones
DT: Phillips
DE:Tomlinson
DE: Tonga
ILB: Asamoah
ILB: Pratt
CB1: Sutton
CB2: Evans
CB3: Booth
SS: Booth
FS: Bynum/Mettelus
This is a very shallow roster prior to the draft, with some very obvious needs at QB, center, WR and edge rusher. It is a solid starting lineup though, and one that will compete for the North once again. The other great thing? The Vikings would be in great position in 2024 to add a couple of high priced free agents. After adding all of the free agent signings and extension, they would have 40 million in cap space in 2024, which would go up to 64 million once they cut Carr. That number is closer to 0 or worse if the Vikings continue down the path they have been the past couple of seasons.
Doing this plan one thing became very clear: the Vikings are not in a good spot this season and the team is in trouble. These are very drastic cuts, and even with an unlikely trade of the Vikings' most expensive player, it is difficult to add a lot of talent. Poor drafting has really put this team in a bad situation and it is time to reboot and start over around the Vikings core of O'Neill, Darrisaw, Hunter, TJ and JJ. They start doing that now, find at least a solid QB in the draft, and things could get better as soon as 2024. If they try to run things back, we will all be having these exact same conversations again next February and March.
... and neither is this Chris guy.