2023 Draft: IOL PFF Run/Pass Snaps & PFF Grades
Feb 17, 2023 14:51:23 GMT -6
Danchat and FSUVike like this
Post by Uncle on Feb 17, 2023 14:51:23 GMT -6
Depending on what happens with Bradbury and/or the OC position this offseason, it's possible that the Vikings head into the 2023 Draft with a need at the OC position. University of Minnesota IOL prospect John Michael Schmitz is a very popular OC prospect and is often labeled as OC1 in the 2023 Draft class and some Viking fans may want to look his way if the Vikings trade back with the 23rd overall pick in Round 1.
But if the Vikings go in a different direction with their first pick and circle-back to the OC position later in the Draft, are there any other candidates on Day 2 or even Day 3 that would be worth it?
I came across this article (link) on a Steelers website I often visit and the author, Clayton Eckert, put together some really nice graphs of the 2023 IOL prospects on their rush/pass-block snaps and then the rush/pass PFF grades and I thought it was worth sharing that information here.
First, because the article and data/graphs have all IOL prospects from Shrine Bowl, Senior Bowl & Combine invites, we need to first define just the IOL prospects that project as OC prospects; we may take a OG prospect but probably not until late on Day 3 so the focus should just be on the OC position. Here are the 2023 IOL prospects that project to OC in the NFL and where they are currently expected to be Drafted:
Late Day 1 / Early Day 2
John Michael Schmitz, Minnesota
Day 2:
Luke Wypler, Ohio St
Joe Tippman, Wisconsin
Steve Avila, TCU (moved to LG in '22, but played '20 & '21 at OC)
Late Day 2 / Early Day 3
Olusegun Oluwatimi, Michigan
Ricky Stromberg, Arkansas
Mid-Day 3
Jarrett Patterson, Notre Dame (played multiple positions but projects to OC)
Alex Forsyth, Oregon
Late Day 3/UDFA
Juice Scruggs, Penn St
Jake Andrews, Troy
Jon Gaines, UCLA (can play all 5 OL positions, but projects to OC)
Alan Ali, TCU
The first graph displays each IOL prospects rush & pass snaps for the 2022 season:
Takeaways:
- The upper right corner are prospects that have a had degree of rush & pass snaps in 2022. You can see clearly that Schmitz, Tippman, Patterson & Oluwatimi are all in the bottom right which indicates they had more rush than pass snaps, and that makes sense since Minnesota, Wisconsin, Notre Dame and Michigan all primarily feature ball-control offenses.
- Wypler & Andrews both play in more pass-happy offensive systems (Ohio St & Troy) so they have more pass snaps.
- Gaines, Avila, Ali and Stromberg all seem to have that nice balance of rush & pass snaps.
The next graph shows each IOL prospect's 2022 PFF grades in both rush & pass snaps:
Takeaways:
- Again, you'd like the prospect to be in the upper-right that contains high grades in both rush & pass snaps. Wypler, Tippman, Gaines & Schmitz are all there, with Schmitz really showin' out in rush grades (90+).
- Oluwatimi & Stromberg are just below the mean but still strong with 80+ rush-block grades and 75+ pass-block grades.
- Scruggs & Patterson are right there at around 70 for both rush & pass grades, while Forsyth graded out much higher in pass blocks vs rush blocks.
- Jake Andrews of Troy had a decent rush block grade of 75+, but a very poor 50+ pass block grade.
Overall Takeaways
The reason I think it could be key to look at the distinction between rush & pass snaps vs grades is because the Viking offense under O'Connell in 2022 passed the ball more than they rushed; they attempted 672 passes and 404 rushes which is basically a 60/40 clip - they passed the ball 60% of the time. If O'Connell runs the same offense in 2023, I would expect that pass/rush ratio to continue.
So knowing that, even though Schmitz graded out the best, he did so on the strength of those rush attempts/grades as Minnesota didn't pass so much. He did have a 80+ PFF pass-block grade when Minnesota QB Tanner Morgan did pass and all reports from the Senior Bowl have been glowing and those practices focus on 1-on-1 "phone booth" pass block sets, so the data may suggest that the perceived label of OC1 in the 2023 Draft is accurate.
If the Vikings pass on Schmitz at the end of Round 1 or early in Round 2 (if they trade back), both Wypler and Tippman seem like strong OC candidates, with Wypler perhaps fitting the Vikings more pass-heavy offense, although it should be noted that the Ohio St offense is more of a spread style that doesn't ask their OL to do much pulling. It also should be noted that Wypler did have a very strong game vs the Georgia DL in the CFP Playoff Semifinals, especially against Top 5 prospect Jalen Carter.
Beyond that, Stromberg and Oluwatimi graded well in both rush & pass blocking, and since Stromberg had a nice blend of both pass & rush snaps, he might be the better fit between those two. The surprise to me was UCLA's Jon Gaines, who is a late Day 3/UDFA prospect, but was above the mean in both pass & rush grades while having a very even blend of both pass & rush snaps. Perhaps if the Vikings move on from Bradbury and sign a veteran in free agency, or if they bring Bradbury back for just 1 season, Gaines could be a late Day 3/UDFA prospect to develop for 2023 and then take meaningful snaps in 2024+.
But if the Vikings go in a different direction with their first pick and circle-back to the OC position later in the Draft, are there any other candidates on Day 2 or even Day 3 that would be worth it?
I came across this article (link) on a Steelers website I often visit and the author, Clayton Eckert, put together some really nice graphs of the 2023 IOL prospects on their rush/pass-block snaps and then the rush/pass PFF grades and I thought it was worth sharing that information here.
First, because the article and data/graphs have all IOL prospects from Shrine Bowl, Senior Bowl & Combine invites, we need to first define just the IOL prospects that project as OC prospects; we may take a OG prospect but probably not until late on Day 3 so the focus should just be on the OC position. Here are the 2023 IOL prospects that project to OC in the NFL and where they are currently expected to be Drafted:
Late Day 1 / Early Day 2
John Michael Schmitz, Minnesota
Day 2:
Luke Wypler, Ohio St
Joe Tippman, Wisconsin
Steve Avila, TCU (moved to LG in '22, but played '20 & '21 at OC)
Late Day 2 / Early Day 3
Olusegun Oluwatimi, Michigan
Ricky Stromberg, Arkansas
Mid-Day 3
Jarrett Patterson, Notre Dame (played multiple positions but projects to OC)
Alex Forsyth, Oregon
Late Day 3/UDFA
Juice Scruggs, Penn St
Jake Andrews, Troy
Jon Gaines, UCLA (can play all 5 OL positions, but projects to OC)
Alan Ali, TCU
The first graph displays each IOL prospects rush & pass snaps for the 2022 season:
Takeaways:
- The upper right corner are prospects that have a had degree of rush & pass snaps in 2022. You can see clearly that Schmitz, Tippman, Patterson & Oluwatimi are all in the bottom right which indicates they had more rush than pass snaps, and that makes sense since Minnesota, Wisconsin, Notre Dame and Michigan all primarily feature ball-control offenses.
- Wypler & Andrews both play in more pass-happy offensive systems (Ohio St & Troy) so they have more pass snaps.
- Gaines, Avila, Ali and Stromberg all seem to have that nice balance of rush & pass snaps.
The next graph shows each IOL prospect's 2022 PFF grades in both rush & pass snaps:
Takeaways:
- Again, you'd like the prospect to be in the upper-right that contains high grades in both rush & pass snaps. Wypler, Tippman, Gaines & Schmitz are all there, with Schmitz really showin' out in rush grades (90+).
- Oluwatimi & Stromberg are just below the mean but still strong with 80+ rush-block grades and 75+ pass-block grades.
- Scruggs & Patterson are right there at around 70 for both rush & pass grades, while Forsyth graded out much higher in pass blocks vs rush blocks.
- Jake Andrews of Troy had a decent rush block grade of 75+, but a very poor 50+ pass block grade.
Overall Takeaways
The reason I think it could be key to look at the distinction between rush & pass snaps vs grades is because the Viking offense under O'Connell in 2022 passed the ball more than they rushed; they attempted 672 passes and 404 rushes which is basically a 60/40 clip - they passed the ball 60% of the time. If O'Connell runs the same offense in 2023, I would expect that pass/rush ratio to continue.
So knowing that, even though Schmitz graded out the best, he did so on the strength of those rush attempts/grades as Minnesota didn't pass so much. He did have a 80+ PFF pass-block grade when Minnesota QB Tanner Morgan did pass and all reports from the Senior Bowl have been glowing and those practices focus on 1-on-1 "phone booth" pass block sets, so the data may suggest that the perceived label of OC1 in the 2023 Draft is accurate.
If the Vikings pass on Schmitz at the end of Round 1 or early in Round 2 (if they trade back), both Wypler and Tippman seem like strong OC candidates, with Wypler perhaps fitting the Vikings more pass-heavy offense, although it should be noted that the Ohio St offense is more of a spread style that doesn't ask their OL to do much pulling. It also should be noted that Wypler did have a very strong game vs the Georgia DL in the CFP Playoff Semifinals, especially against Top 5 prospect Jalen Carter.
Beyond that, Stromberg and Oluwatimi graded well in both rush & pass blocking, and since Stromberg had a nice blend of both pass & rush snaps, he might be the better fit between those two. The surprise to me was UCLA's Jon Gaines, who is a late Day 3/UDFA prospect, but was above the mean in both pass & rush grades while having a very even blend of both pass & rush snaps. Perhaps if the Vikings move on from Bradbury and sign a veteran in free agency, or if they bring Bradbury back for just 1 season, Gaines could be a late Day 3/UDFA prospect to develop for 2023 and then take meaningful snaps in 2024+.
... and neither is this Chris guy.