Offense or Defense? 2023 Offseason Vikings Blueprint
Feb 15, 2023 19:31:36 GMT -6
Funkytown, Josey Wales, and 7 more like this
Post by Uncle on Feb 15, 2023 19:31:36 GMT -6
Laying the Foundation
With the 2023 NFL League Year just one month away on March 15th, it's no secret that the Vikings have many critical decisions to make on their current roster. With Kwesi and O'Connell continually referencing a "talent threshold" that upholds a "championship standard" during their end-of-season press conference, it appears they are continuing the "competitive rebuild" approach they started in 2022. Once the more "significant", current roster decisions become fleshed-out over the next month, what players could the Vikings target in free agency and the Draft in April? It's obvious that the defensive side of the roster needs some help beyond getting the 2022 Draft class on the field and with Flores bringing an aggressive scheme for 2023, does it make more sense to target "NFL-ready" defensive players in free agency vs investing heavy Draft 2023 capital on the defense?
I remembered an article I read last offseason (which I can't seem to find now) that analyzed the last few Draft classes and concluded that offensive players had a bit more "immediate" success with their respective teams than defensive players, so it would make more sense that if a team is in more of a "win-now" window, they would target defensive players via free agency and then offensive players in the Draft.
But is that really true? After all, Seattle had unexpected success in 2022 behind a pair or rookie CB's, and AFC contenders Buffalo & Kansas City found some late round CB "gems", too. Even division rival Detroit found a LB in the 6th Rd, Malcolm Rodriguez, who provided them with 600+ productive snaps. It seems that perhaps the 2022 Draft class might be telling us that the tide could be shifting and perhaps defensive players are coming into the NFL more ready to play than ever before.
You can be sure that "Team Kwesi" is crunching the analytics to build the 2023 Vikings offseason blueprint, and to try and possibly get a gauge on what that blueprint might look like, I thought it might be interesting to dive a bit deeper into the 2022 Draft Class to see which types of players, offense or defense, had more success in the 2022 season so we can possibly see the foundation of the plan that Kwesi, O'Connell and Flores might follow in the months ahead.
2022 Draft Analysis
The idea was to take all 262 players drafted in the 2022 NFL Draft, categorize them by position and then input their production via snap count and PFF grades to see which side of the ball had more success during the season. Here's what I did:
- Used the ProFootball Reference website and copied/pasted all 262 players drafted (which you can easily find here: link) and pasted that into an Excel spreadsheet. The data included team, player an position.
- I then categorized each position into either "OFF", "DEF" and "ST"
- Next I plugged-in each players 2022 snap counts (using ProFootball Reference snap counts, which are very close to PFF's snap counts) and their overall 2022 PFF grades.
- Then I determined a snap count "threshold" to use when averaging out the PFF grades and landed on 200 (I think PFF uses anywhere between 150 and 200+ annual snaps on season grade lists); some players could have received really high/low grades based on a low # of snaps so I needed to flesh those out to get better beat on how well the players who contributed actually did
Overall Result:
Not to "muddy the data", I excluded the "ST" Avg PFF grade for that one ST player with 200+ snaps, Tampa Bay P Jake Camarda, so that 61.2 overall PFF grade reflects only the OFF/DEF players.
Takeaways:
- There is a relatively even split of OFF & DEF players, bot in terms of overall players drafted and those players that had a minimum of 200 snaps
- The overall avg of 61.2 isn't too bad, especially when you consider the overall league avg is better than Minnesota's lone 2022 rookie with 200+ snaps, Ed Ingram, who graded out at 57.0
- Offensive players graded out better than defensive players by over 6 PFF pts
Even though I thought ahead of time that perhaps defensive rookies might have performed better, it looks like offensive rookies can still contribute more "productive" snaps quicker in their careers. Ok, the offseason blueprint is starting to come together: plug more roster holes on the defensive side of the ball through free agency because chances are any defensive players drafted in 2023 won't play as well as offensive players drafted. But in what rounds should we target offensive players in the 2023 Draft?
Overall Result by Round:
Takeaways:
- The highest graded round was obviously Round 1, but surprisingly Round 7 was the 2nd highest graded round (*cough*, Isaiah Pacheco and Brock Purdy, *cough*), and the start of Day 3 with Round 4 was the 3rd highest graded round.
- The lowest was Round 6, with both OFF and DEF players not grading out too well.
- The only round in which DEF players out-graded OFF players was Round 1, which was basically even.
- The largest margin was Round 5 where the OFF players out-graded the DEF players by nearly 13 PFF pts.
Ok, so we take either OFF or DEF in Round 1, OFF early on Day 2 and then again early on Day 3 and if we have a dart throws in Round 7, throw them towards the OFF side of the board. And if we have to take DEF anywhere outside of Round 1, it looks like the best bet is early on Day 3.
Now that we know that, the next question naturally is: what positions do I take on OFF and DEF?
Results by Position:
Takeaways:
- If you have to take OFF in the Draft, go with the three primary skill position groups (QB, RB, WR) as TE, OT & IOL players may need a bit of "seasoning" before they can contribute productive snaps in Year 1.
- If you can, try to get LB's & DE's via free agency vs the Draft.
- Zimmer was wrong: DB's can contribute (modestly, anyway) in Year 1. Don't let them watch on the sidelines; get them some snaps!
Now that we know what positions to take in the Draft, what Round do we need to take them in?
Results by Position and Round:
Takeaways:
- You can pretty much take a RB anywhere in the Draft and they'll be very good in Year 1
- For WR's, you take them on Day 1, early on Day 2 and then in the late Rounds; stay away from late Day 2/early Day 3
- TE/OT/OL: there's some value in the middle rounds
- If you have to take a DE or LB, go early wait until late on Day 3
- Interior DL: the earlier, the better
- In terms of CB's, there's some definite value to be had throughout the Draft, with Rd 7 not awful
Conclusion
Kwesi & O'Connell drafted 10 players for the Vikings in the 2022 Draft and they were evenly split between OFF (5) and DEF (5), but they did follow the analysis above and when they went DEF, they went early with 4 out of their first 5 picks on the DEF side of the ball, and they seemingly got away with Asamoah in Rd 3, too, because the LB's who did have 200+ snaps didn't fare too well. They then circled back to the WR/RB skill position players later in the Draft (Chandler & Nailor) where the analysis was Ok taking those positions there.
Much will depend on what roster decisions are made with current players between now and the start of free agency on March 15th, but looking at the analysis of the 2022 Draft, it might be reasonable to conclude that Kwesi, O'Connell & Flores might be a bit more aggressive on the defensive side of the ball in free agency and perhaps early in the 2023 Draft with the possibility of a WR early on Day 2, and then come back with offensive depth in the middle rounds with the possibility of another CB added on Day 3 in a very deep 2023 CB Draft class.
There is one position group that does remain a bit of a mystery, IOL, specifically OC and what to do with Bradbury. The data suggests that IOL players don't contribute productive snaps in Year 1 (the lone outlier was Green Bay's Zach Tom in Rd 4 who was listed as an IOL at the time of the Draft, but I believe he ended up playing OT for the Packers in 2022 so even that outlier may not count), so do you bring him back or go after another OC in free agency? Because both OC's and OG's are lumped into the IOL group, it really needs to be broken apart, and if you look at OC's drafted early in 2021 & 2022 that played at least 200+ snaps in Year 1 (that would be Landon Dickerson, Josh Myers & Creed Humphrey in '21 and Tyler Linderbaum in '22), the OC's actually played really well and it's the OG's who've struggled. So, if the Vikings do dropback in Round 1 into the top half of Round 2 in the 2023 Draft, taking a OC prospect like Joe Tippman (Wisconsin) or John Michael Schmitz (Minnesota) certainly wouldn't be a bad thing if they don't nab an OC in free agency.
With the 2023 NFL League Year just one month away on March 15th, it's no secret that the Vikings have many critical decisions to make on their current roster. With Kwesi and O'Connell continually referencing a "talent threshold" that upholds a "championship standard" during their end-of-season press conference, it appears they are continuing the "competitive rebuild" approach they started in 2022. Once the more "significant", current roster decisions become fleshed-out over the next month, what players could the Vikings target in free agency and the Draft in April? It's obvious that the defensive side of the roster needs some help beyond getting the 2022 Draft class on the field and with Flores bringing an aggressive scheme for 2023, does it make more sense to target "NFL-ready" defensive players in free agency vs investing heavy Draft 2023 capital on the defense?
I remembered an article I read last offseason (which I can't seem to find now) that analyzed the last few Draft classes and concluded that offensive players had a bit more "immediate" success with their respective teams than defensive players, so it would make more sense that if a team is in more of a "win-now" window, they would target defensive players via free agency and then offensive players in the Draft.
But is that really true? After all, Seattle had unexpected success in 2022 behind a pair or rookie CB's, and AFC contenders Buffalo & Kansas City found some late round CB "gems", too. Even division rival Detroit found a LB in the 6th Rd, Malcolm Rodriguez, who provided them with 600+ productive snaps. It seems that perhaps the 2022 Draft class might be telling us that the tide could be shifting and perhaps defensive players are coming into the NFL more ready to play than ever before.
You can be sure that "Team Kwesi" is crunching the analytics to build the 2023 Vikings offseason blueprint, and to try and possibly get a gauge on what that blueprint might look like, I thought it might be interesting to dive a bit deeper into the 2022 Draft Class to see which types of players, offense or defense, had more success in the 2022 season so we can possibly see the foundation of the plan that Kwesi, O'Connell and Flores might follow in the months ahead.
2022 Draft Analysis
The idea was to take all 262 players drafted in the 2022 NFL Draft, categorize them by position and then input their production via snap count and PFF grades to see which side of the ball had more success during the season. Here's what I did:
- Used the ProFootball Reference website and copied/pasted all 262 players drafted (which you can easily find here: link) and pasted that into an Excel spreadsheet. The data included team, player an position.
- I then categorized each position into either "OFF", "DEF" and "ST"
- Next I plugged-in each players 2022 snap counts (using ProFootball Reference snap counts, which are very close to PFF's snap counts) and their overall 2022 PFF grades.
- Then I determined a snap count "threshold" to use when averaging out the PFF grades and landed on 200 (I think PFF uses anywhere between 150 and 200+ annual snaps on season grade lists); some players could have received really high/low grades based on a low # of snaps so I needed to flesh those out to get better beat on how well the players who contributed actually did
Overall Result:
Not to "muddy the data", I excluded the "ST" Avg PFF grade for that one ST player with 200+ snaps, Tampa Bay P Jake Camarda, so that 61.2 overall PFF grade reflects only the OFF/DEF players.
Takeaways:
- There is a relatively even split of OFF & DEF players, bot in terms of overall players drafted and those players that had a minimum of 200 snaps
- The overall avg of 61.2 isn't too bad, especially when you consider the overall league avg is better than Minnesota's lone 2022 rookie with 200+ snaps, Ed Ingram, who graded out at 57.0
- Offensive players graded out better than defensive players by over 6 PFF pts
Even though I thought ahead of time that perhaps defensive rookies might have performed better, it looks like offensive rookies can still contribute more "productive" snaps quicker in their careers. Ok, the offseason blueprint is starting to come together: plug more roster holes on the defensive side of the ball through free agency because chances are any defensive players drafted in 2023 won't play as well as offensive players drafted. But in what rounds should we target offensive players in the 2023 Draft?
Overall Result by Round:
Takeaways:
- The highest graded round was obviously Round 1, but surprisingly Round 7 was the 2nd highest graded round (*cough*, Isaiah Pacheco and Brock Purdy, *cough*), and the start of Day 3 with Round 4 was the 3rd highest graded round.
- The lowest was Round 6, with both OFF and DEF players not grading out too well.
- The only round in which DEF players out-graded OFF players was Round 1, which was basically even.
- The largest margin was Round 5 where the OFF players out-graded the DEF players by nearly 13 PFF pts.
Ok, so we take either OFF or DEF in Round 1, OFF early on Day 2 and then again early on Day 3 and if we have a dart throws in Round 7, throw them towards the OFF side of the board. And if we have to take DEF anywhere outside of Round 1, it looks like the best bet is early on Day 3.
Now that we know that, the next question naturally is: what positions do I take on OFF and DEF?
Results by Position:
Takeaways:
- If you have to take OFF in the Draft, go with the three primary skill position groups (QB, RB, WR) as TE, OT & IOL players may need a bit of "seasoning" before they can contribute productive snaps in Year 1.
- If you can, try to get LB's & DE's via free agency vs the Draft.
- Zimmer was wrong: DB's can contribute (modestly, anyway) in Year 1. Don't let them watch on the sidelines; get them some snaps!
Now that we know what positions to take in the Draft, what Round do we need to take them in?
Results by Position and Round:
Takeaways:
- You can pretty much take a RB anywhere in the Draft and they'll be very good in Year 1
- For WR's, you take them on Day 1, early on Day 2 and then in the late Rounds; stay away from late Day 2/early Day 3
- TE/OT/OL: there's some value in the middle rounds
- If you have to take a DE or LB, go early wait until late on Day 3
- Interior DL: the earlier, the better
- In terms of CB's, there's some definite value to be had throughout the Draft, with Rd 7 not awful
Conclusion
Kwesi & O'Connell drafted 10 players for the Vikings in the 2022 Draft and they were evenly split between OFF (5) and DEF (5), but they did follow the analysis above and when they went DEF, they went early with 4 out of their first 5 picks on the DEF side of the ball, and they seemingly got away with Asamoah in Rd 3, too, because the LB's who did have 200+ snaps didn't fare too well. They then circled back to the WR/RB skill position players later in the Draft (Chandler & Nailor) where the analysis was Ok taking those positions there.
Much will depend on what roster decisions are made with current players between now and the start of free agency on March 15th, but looking at the analysis of the 2022 Draft, it might be reasonable to conclude that Kwesi, O'Connell & Flores might be a bit more aggressive on the defensive side of the ball in free agency and perhaps early in the 2023 Draft with the possibility of a WR early on Day 2, and then come back with offensive depth in the middle rounds with the possibility of another CB added on Day 3 in a very deep 2023 CB Draft class.
There is one position group that does remain a bit of a mystery, IOL, specifically OC and what to do with Bradbury. The data suggests that IOL players don't contribute productive snaps in Year 1 (the lone outlier was Green Bay's Zach Tom in Rd 4 who was listed as an IOL at the time of the Draft, but I believe he ended up playing OT for the Packers in 2022 so even that outlier may not count), so do you bring him back or go after another OC in free agency? Because both OC's and OG's are lumped into the IOL group, it really needs to be broken apart, and if you look at OC's drafted early in 2021 & 2022 that played at least 200+ snaps in Year 1 (that would be Landon Dickerson, Josh Myers & Creed Humphrey in '21 and Tyler Linderbaum in '22), the OC's actually played really well and it's the OG's who've struggled. So, if the Vikings do dropback in Round 1 into the top half of Round 2 in the 2023 Draft, taking a OC prospect like Joe Tippman (Wisconsin) or John Michael Schmitz (Minnesota) certainly wouldn't be a bad thing if they don't nab an OC in free agency.
... and neither is this Chris guy.