Before You Just Go BPA in the Draft
Feb 2, 2023 14:29:21 GMT -6
Funkytown, Danchat, and 6 more like this
Post by MidwinterViking on Feb 2, 2023 14:29:21 GMT -6
I’m in favor of taking the best player available. Sometime the rest of the NFL sleeps on a prospect and there is a game changing player available below where they should be. Micha Parsons at #12. Justin Jefferson at #21. Deebo Samuel or Shaquille Leonard at #36. If there is a transformational player like that on the board at #23 when the Vikings pick, great, take him regardless of position. However, reality is that it is unlikely to be that clear; there will probably be several players at multiple positions with similar ratings and any one may could be argued to be the best player available.
The second issue with just saying “Just take BPA” is that free agency happens before the draft. Based on the cap space and contract situation, I think the Vikings can afford 1 Premium starter (a ZaDarius Smith or Harrison Phillips type signing) and a few other likely discount starters (Patrick Peterson or 2022 Jordan Hick level free agents). If the difference between multiple Best Players is small, a team isn’t going to throw a pick at a position where they spend a bunch of money. So I also have to look at potential free agency to allocate resources not knowing who the BPA will be.
My analysis then isn’t “Who is the Best Player?”, but should I prepare the roster to select one of the 3-5 best players available at a specific position? What does the depth look like prior to free agency? Would I like to add a premium free agent here? And does that line up with making a pick at this position at #23.
I’m using the NFL mock draft database as a source for potential BPAs. At this point I know player rankings are fluid, so I'm just getting a general sense for what's out there.
Going position by position ranked from most to least interesting in terms of how the team sets itself up going into the draft.
Cornerback
Starters after cost cutting but prior to free agency: Dantzler, Evans, Booth Jr
Odds of adding a Free Agent: Near certainty
A do-nothing situation of Dantzler and Evans on the outside with Booth Jr in the slot could be good if Booth Jr is who people thought he was, Evans builds on the flashes he showed and Dantzler continues to build himself into an acceptable #2 corner; so it’s possible the Vikings do less than some people think at CB. Or they’re all injury prone and underperforming and CB is a huge need. Either way, Mike Zimmer was right about one thing, you can never have too many good corners. It’s the only positon where you usually have 3 players on the field and all of them need elite athleticism and football skills. I’m all for bringing back Duke Shelly and would be ok with Peterson back too.
Potential BPAs: Cam Smith(20), Devon Witherspoon(21), Kelee Ringo(22), Clark Phillips(25)
Prepare to draft a CB BPA? They have to prepare for it. CB is a nexus of unknowns, positional scarcity and multiple potential targets. The Vikings have a lot of contingencies to plan for here, making this the most interesting position of the offseason.
Linebacker
Starters after cost cutting but prior to free agency: Asamoah,
Odds of adding a Free Agent: Coin Flip (more on this in the conclusion)
The 2023 franchise tag values for LBs is $20.9M, higher than any position other than QB. WRs ($19.7M), DE($19.7M), DT($18.9M); linebackers aren't traditionally thought of as a high value position, but at the top of the market they get really expensive. There is a huge need here with Hicks almost certainly gone and a high probability of Kendricks being gone.
Potential BPAs: Trenton Simpson (24), Drew Sanders(32)
Prepare to draft a LB BPA? Absolutely. Value, need and prospects line up great here. A 5 Star prospect with 1st round talent at the position that most underperformed? This lines up almost as well as Jefferson did with the Vikings WR need 2020. The Vikings free agent moves at LB will be a major indicator of draft plans to me.
Wide Receiver
Starters after cost cutting but prior to free agency: Jefferson, Osborn, Reagor / Nailor
Odds of adding a Free Agent: Medium to Low
Going with the assumption that there are 3 starting WRs, the Reagor / Nailor position is an opportunity. It’s somewhat mitigated with the presence of Hockenson at TE, but a deep threat speed player could have a role. I don’t buy the “too many resources at WR” argument for two reasons, #1 receivers are valuable. And #2 a strategy of multiple elite pass catchers has worked for the Bengals with Ja’Marr Chase + Tee Higgins + Tyler Boyd and the 2021 Cowboys with Lamb, Cooper, Gallup, Dalton Schultz. Other teams would do that too if they could get the players.
Potential BPAs: Quentin Johnson (13), Jordan Addison (15), Jaxson Smith-Njigba (19)
Prepare to draft a WR BPA? I’m going to say yes. If it’s strict position of need, I might say no, but there are prospects sitting in the teens that could fall to pick #23. Osborn was dependable and a good blocker, but didn't create much separation, so if one of those guys falls and is viewed as a difference maker, I’d take him. If none of them are viewed as a real difference maker then free agency spend probably depends on what McCardell thinks the development prospects are for Nailor and Reagor.
Defensive End / Edge
Starters after cost cutting but prior to free agency: Hunter, Smith
Odds of adding a Free Agent: Low for a new starter
This is lower down the list because there are no shocking moves to set up drafting a pass rusher; just draft him. I think the offseason lines up to have both Hunter and Smith back as well as Patrick Jones as a cheap rotational player. They were getting pressure, the coverage just never gave them time to get home. That said, they didn’t get home so this has to be a possibility.
Potential BPAs: Nolan Smith (27), Lukas Van Ness(28), Isaiah Foskey(28), BJ Ojulari(37)
Prepare to draft a DE BPA? Always. "yeah, we don't really need any more pass rushers"- NoCoachEver. What team isn’t prepared to pull the trigger on a blue chip pass rusher? It doesn’t matter the free agency moves, if one of the above guys is a difference maker, they can pull the trigger no matter what happened in free agency.
Defensive Tackle
Starters after cost cutting but prior to free agency: Phillips, Tonga, Otomewo?
Odds of adding a Free Agent: Probably
When it comes to getting a return on dollars spent, I think DT is one of the better positions to spend free agency dollars. There seem to consistently be DTs on the market who have bulked up to NFL strength. I think that’s the route the Vikings go with Dalvin Tomlinson or a similar player.
Potential BPAs: Brian Bresee(11), Siaki Ika(39)
Prepare to draft a DT BPA? I don’t think so. I think DT is covered by the first paragraph: only if there is a transformational player. Otherwise development options and free agency seem to have a better potential return. I think the only way this happens is if O'Connell says "I saw Aaron Donald up close and [some draft guy] is the next one of him!!!" Even still, they probably add one to the DL rotation in free agency.
Running Back
Starters after cost cutting but prior to free agency: Chandler or Cook
Odds of adding a Free Agent: Low
I don’t think the Vikings sign a free agent starting RB (maybe a backup to Chandler). If cutting Dalvin Cook saves $8M per year and a guy like Leonard Fournette cost $7M or Chase Edmonds costs $6M per year, there isn’t much savings to be had. The 2020 and 2021 RBs in the $1-5M per year range delivered almost nothing. This glaring lack of production from free agent RBs across the NFL is part of why I think the odds of Cook coming back are higher than some think.
Potential BPAs: Bijan Robinson (17)
Prepare to draft a RB BPA? Probably not, but maybe. Jonathan Taylor and Najee Harris have carried a heavy load as early picks, so it’s not inconceivable from a strategy standpoint. But with no second round pick, it feels like the team rolls with Cook or Chandler as RB1.
Safety
Starters after cost cutting but prior to free agency: Pick 2: Smith, Bynum, Cine
Odds of adding a Free Agent: Low
I think the odds are lower than 50/50 that Harrison Smith is back. Even if he’s not, Josh Metellus was a quality contributor, so this doesn’t get very interesting. Having seen Cine walking around without a limp, I’m going to assume that he comes back.
Potential BPAs: Brian Branch (18) Antonio Johnson (33)
Prepare to draft a S BPA? I don’t see it. Even if Cine doesn’t make it back, I think a Bynum – Metellus combo is more likely than a safety at #23.
Interior Offensive Line
Starters after cost cutting but prior to free agency: Cleveland-??-Ingram
Odds of adding a Free Agent: I think they have to?
Potential BPAs: O’Cyrus Torrence (25)
Prepare to draft a RB BPA?: No. This will be even less interesting if/when the Vikings resign Bradburry or sign another Center.
Quarterback
Starter after cost cutting but prior to free agency: Cousins
Odds of Adding Free Agent (starter): Very Low
Cousins will likely receive an extension this offseason but that has limited impact on the draft. This is a question of if the front office and O’Connell believe any QB on the board is a starting quality QB. At any given time, there are less than 32 starting quality QBs in the league, so if the Vikings can create a Cousins succession plan, they should.
Potential BPAs: Any QB O’Connell wants to tie his reputation to.
Prepare to draft a QB BPA? Obviously yes, scout everyone, but it only becomes interesting if it happens. There is no special preparation.
Offensive Tackle
Starters after cost cutting but prior to free agency: Darrisaw & ONiell
Odds of Adding Free Agent: None
Potential BPAs: Peter Skoronski(13), Broderick Jones(23)
Prepare to draft a OT BPA? Nope, a clear best player at OT is the ideal trade down situation for the Vikings.
Tight End
Starter after cost cutting but prior to free agency: TJ Hockensockenrobots
Potential BPAs: Michael Mayer (16)
Prepare to draft a TE BPA? No. I'm not even writing about this.
Piece it all together
My conclusion after looking at this, whatever the Vikings to at Linebacker will inform my entire view of the draft. Last year Kwesi signed basically an entire starting roster before the draft, with high spend guys (ZaDarius, Phillips) at obvious positions of need). The 2023 free agent Linebacker group has a number of good, young options. David Long, TJ Edwards, Germaine Pratt, Tremaine Edmunds, to name a few. Because of the options, it's easy to just pencil in "buy a linebacker", but I think the Vikings will have to spend on DT as well. I am interested to see what this surplus of LBs does to their free agency price tags if they can get a discount.
If the Vikings don’t make a splash signing at linebacker (or at least as splashy as a discount LB can be.... which I guess is not very splashy), it will make me think they have a guy like Drew Sanders or Trenton Simpson circled on the draft board. If the Vikings do sign one of the LBs in a deep free agency class, then I start to look at CB and DE with a WR wildcard. Asamoah is clearly stepping into a starting role, and I don't think they would duplicate a pick and high profile free agent signing.
The second issue with just saying “Just take BPA” is that free agency happens before the draft. Based on the cap space and contract situation, I think the Vikings can afford 1 Premium starter (a ZaDarius Smith or Harrison Phillips type signing) and a few other likely discount starters (Patrick Peterson or 2022 Jordan Hick level free agents). If the difference between multiple Best Players is small, a team isn’t going to throw a pick at a position where they spend a bunch of money. So I also have to look at potential free agency to allocate resources not knowing who the BPA will be.
My analysis then isn’t “Who is the Best Player?”, but should I prepare the roster to select one of the 3-5 best players available at a specific position? What does the depth look like prior to free agency? Would I like to add a premium free agent here? And does that line up with making a pick at this position at #23.
I’m using the NFL mock draft database as a source for potential BPAs. At this point I know player rankings are fluid, so I'm just getting a general sense for what's out there.
Going position by position ranked from most to least interesting in terms of how the team sets itself up going into the draft.
Cornerback
Starters after cost cutting but prior to free agency: Dantzler, Evans, Booth Jr
Odds of adding a Free Agent: Near certainty
A do-nothing situation of Dantzler and Evans on the outside with Booth Jr in the slot could be good if Booth Jr is who people thought he was, Evans builds on the flashes he showed and Dantzler continues to build himself into an acceptable #2 corner; so it’s possible the Vikings do less than some people think at CB. Or they’re all injury prone and underperforming and CB is a huge need. Either way, Mike Zimmer was right about one thing, you can never have too many good corners. It’s the only positon where you usually have 3 players on the field and all of them need elite athleticism and football skills. I’m all for bringing back Duke Shelly and would be ok with Peterson back too.
Potential BPAs: Cam Smith(20), Devon Witherspoon(21), Kelee Ringo(22), Clark Phillips(25)
Prepare to draft a CB BPA? They have to prepare for it. CB is a nexus of unknowns, positional scarcity and multiple potential targets. The Vikings have a lot of contingencies to plan for here, making this the most interesting position of the offseason.
Linebacker
Starters after cost cutting but prior to free agency: Asamoah,
Odds of adding a Free Agent: Coin Flip (more on this in the conclusion)
The 2023 franchise tag values for LBs is $20.9M, higher than any position other than QB. WRs ($19.7M), DE($19.7M), DT($18.9M); linebackers aren't traditionally thought of as a high value position, but at the top of the market they get really expensive. There is a huge need here with Hicks almost certainly gone and a high probability of Kendricks being gone.
Potential BPAs: Trenton Simpson (24), Drew Sanders(32)
Prepare to draft a LB BPA? Absolutely. Value, need and prospects line up great here. A 5 Star prospect with 1st round talent at the position that most underperformed? This lines up almost as well as Jefferson did with the Vikings WR need 2020. The Vikings free agent moves at LB will be a major indicator of draft plans to me.
Wide Receiver
Starters after cost cutting but prior to free agency: Jefferson, Osborn, Reagor / Nailor
Odds of adding a Free Agent: Medium to Low
Going with the assumption that there are 3 starting WRs, the Reagor / Nailor position is an opportunity. It’s somewhat mitigated with the presence of Hockenson at TE, but a deep threat speed player could have a role. I don’t buy the “too many resources at WR” argument for two reasons, #1 receivers are valuable. And #2 a strategy of multiple elite pass catchers has worked for the Bengals with Ja’Marr Chase + Tee Higgins + Tyler Boyd and the 2021 Cowboys with Lamb, Cooper, Gallup, Dalton Schultz. Other teams would do that too if they could get the players.
Potential BPAs: Quentin Johnson (13), Jordan Addison (15), Jaxson Smith-Njigba (19)
Prepare to draft a WR BPA? I’m going to say yes. If it’s strict position of need, I might say no, but there are prospects sitting in the teens that could fall to pick #23. Osborn was dependable and a good blocker, but didn't create much separation, so if one of those guys falls and is viewed as a difference maker, I’d take him. If none of them are viewed as a real difference maker then free agency spend probably depends on what McCardell thinks the development prospects are for Nailor and Reagor.
Defensive End / Edge
Starters after cost cutting but prior to free agency: Hunter, Smith
Odds of adding a Free Agent: Low for a new starter
This is lower down the list because there are no shocking moves to set up drafting a pass rusher; just draft him. I think the offseason lines up to have both Hunter and Smith back as well as Patrick Jones as a cheap rotational player. They were getting pressure, the coverage just never gave them time to get home. That said, they didn’t get home so this has to be a possibility.
Potential BPAs: Nolan Smith (27), Lukas Van Ness(28), Isaiah Foskey(28), BJ Ojulari(37)
Prepare to draft a DE BPA? Always. "yeah, we don't really need any more pass rushers"- NoCoachEver. What team isn’t prepared to pull the trigger on a blue chip pass rusher? It doesn’t matter the free agency moves, if one of the above guys is a difference maker, they can pull the trigger no matter what happened in free agency.
Defensive Tackle
Starters after cost cutting but prior to free agency: Phillips, Tonga, Otomewo?
Odds of adding a Free Agent: Probably
When it comes to getting a return on dollars spent, I think DT is one of the better positions to spend free agency dollars. There seem to consistently be DTs on the market who have bulked up to NFL strength. I think that’s the route the Vikings go with Dalvin Tomlinson or a similar player.
Potential BPAs: Brian Bresee(11), Siaki Ika(39)
Prepare to draft a DT BPA? I don’t think so. I think DT is covered by the first paragraph: only if there is a transformational player. Otherwise development options and free agency seem to have a better potential return. I think the only way this happens is if O'Connell says "I saw Aaron Donald up close and [some draft guy] is the next one of him!!!" Even still, they probably add one to the DL rotation in free agency.
Running Back
Starters after cost cutting but prior to free agency: Chandler or Cook
Odds of adding a Free Agent: Low
I don’t think the Vikings sign a free agent starting RB (maybe a backup to Chandler). If cutting Dalvin Cook saves $8M per year and a guy like Leonard Fournette cost $7M or Chase Edmonds costs $6M per year, there isn’t much savings to be had. The 2020 and 2021 RBs in the $1-5M per year range delivered almost nothing. This glaring lack of production from free agent RBs across the NFL is part of why I think the odds of Cook coming back are higher than some think.
Potential BPAs: Bijan Robinson (17)
Prepare to draft a RB BPA? Probably not, but maybe. Jonathan Taylor and Najee Harris have carried a heavy load as early picks, so it’s not inconceivable from a strategy standpoint. But with no second round pick, it feels like the team rolls with Cook or Chandler as RB1.
Safety
Starters after cost cutting but prior to free agency: Pick 2: Smith, Bynum, Cine
Odds of adding a Free Agent: Low
I think the odds are lower than 50/50 that Harrison Smith is back. Even if he’s not, Josh Metellus was a quality contributor, so this doesn’t get very interesting. Having seen Cine walking around without a limp, I’m going to assume that he comes back.
Potential BPAs: Brian Branch (18) Antonio Johnson (33)
Prepare to draft a S BPA? I don’t see it. Even if Cine doesn’t make it back, I think a Bynum – Metellus combo is more likely than a safety at #23.
Interior Offensive Line
Starters after cost cutting but prior to free agency: Cleveland-??-Ingram
Odds of adding a Free Agent: I think they have to?
Potential BPAs: O’Cyrus Torrence (25)
Prepare to draft a RB BPA?: No. This will be even less interesting if/when the Vikings resign Bradburry or sign another Center.
Quarterback
Starter after cost cutting but prior to free agency: Cousins
Odds of Adding Free Agent (starter): Very Low
Cousins will likely receive an extension this offseason but that has limited impact on the draft. This is a question of if the front office and O’Connell believe any QB on the board is a starting quality QB. At any given time, there are less than 32 starting quality QBs in the league, so if the Vikings can create a Cousins succession plan, they should.
Potential BPAs: Any QB O’Connell wants to tie his reputation to.
Prepare to draft a QB BPA? Obviously yes, scout everyone, but it only becomes interesting if it happens. There is no special preparation.
Offensive Tackle
Starters after cost cutting but prior to free agency: Darrisaw & ONiell
Odds of Adding Free Agent: None
Potential BPAs: Peter Skoronski(13), Broderick Jones(23)
Prepare to draft a OT BPA? Nope, a clear best player at OT is the ideal trade down situation for the Vikings.
Tight End
Starter after cost cutting but prior to free agency: TJ Hockensockenrobots
Potential BPAs: Michael Mayer (16)
Prepare to draft a TE BPA? No. I'm not even writing about this.
Piece it all together
My conclusion after looking at this, whatever the Vikings to at Linebacker will inform my entire view of the draft. Last year Kwesi signed basically an entire starting roster before the draft, with high spend guys (ZaDarius, Phillips) at obvious positions of need). The 2023 free agent Linebacker group has a number of good, young options. David Long, TJ Edwards, Germaine Pratt, Tremaine Edmunds, to name a few. Because of the options, it's easy to just pencil in "buy a linebacker", but I think the Vikings will have to spend on DT as well. I am interested to see what this surplus of LBs does to their free agency price tags if they can get a discount.
If the Vikings don’t make a splash signing at linebacker (or at least as splashy as a discount LB can be.... which I guess is not very splashy), it will make me think they have a guy like Drew Sanders or Trenton Simpson circled on the draft board. If the Vikings do sign one of the LBs in a deep free agency class, then I start to look at CB and DE with a WR wildcard. Asamoah is clearly stepping into a starting role, and I don't think they would duplicate a pick and high profile free agent signing.
... and neither is this Chris guy.