How do the Vikings find their future QB?

Uncle
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How do the Vikings find their future QB? Jan 22, 2023 12:12:19 GMT -6 kmillard likes this

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Post by Uncle on Jan 22, 2023 12:12:19 GMT -6

Jan 22, 2023 11:40:44 GMT -6 legendsofthenorth said:

Don't know if McKee has any mobility?

In my opinion from following the 2023 QB prospects throughout the 2022 College Season, no, I don't believe McKee has, what I like to refer to as, "Joe Burrow" level of mobility - which is basically less athleticism/mindset than Jalen Hurts/Lamar Jackson, but more athleticism/mindset than Kirk Cousins. The reason I include "mindset" is because it takes more than just some level of athleticism to improvise and have "football mobility"; it takes the mindset to know when to do it and to actually do it.

Kirk Cousins isn't a "statue" by any means and does have some athleticism, even in his mid/late 30's...but what he hasn't shown the propensity of is knowing when to "step-up" in the pocket and create when the pocket collapses and/or actually doing it. We've seen a few examples here and there, but it's not consistent enough to be effective. I'm also not a football coach, but in my opinion from watching/following both College/NFL football for a while, the "mindset" of improvising/moving around is something you don't teach/learn after a certain level of experience - more times than not it's almost something inherited that NFL QB prospects either have or don't have...

...and in my opinion, McKee doesn't have it. Yes, it's true that McKee didn't have a great team around him at Stanford, but we've seen examples of QB's showing that ability on bad teams before.

GermanViking
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How do the Vikings find their future QB? Jan 22, 2023 12:30:32 GMT -6 via mobile kmillard and mngopher35 like this

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Post by GermanViking on Jan 22, 2023 12:30:32 GMT -6

I would try to trade Kirk this year for a 2024 first round pick and cut all of the expensive and declining veterans like Thielen, Cook, Za‘Darius, Harry, Kendricks and Hicks. With Nick Mullens under center in 2023 it might be the perfect timing to finally get at least a top 5 pick in the 2024 draft to draft our QB of the future in a probably very good QB draft class (maybe even Caleb at #1?). With JJ, TJ, Darrisaw, O‘Neill and a ton of cap space it could still be a perfect landing spot for a rookie QB…

And then I woke up and saw them signing Kirk to an extension and restructuring Thielen‘s and Harry‘s horrible contracts 😔

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How do the Vikings find their future QB? Jan 22, 2023 12:43:32 GMT -6 Funkytown and legendsofthenorth like this

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Post by Ted Glover on Jan 22, 2023 12:43:32 GMT -6

Jan 21, 2023 22:31:23 GMT -6 legendsofthenorth said:

This isn't a thread of whether Kirk is good or not. This is a thread of how to find/draft the QB of the future. Kirk is 35 next year, it's time whether you are a supporter or hater of him to start looking to the future.

How:
Lance?
This year's draft?
Wilson?
Next year's draft?

What:
A pocket passer?
Running QB?
Size? Mental Makeup?

Please no debate on Kirk, just want a thread of how to actually find a franchise QB for the next 10-15 years

How: Draft, either this year or next. I am a lot more comfortable with KOC/KAM finding the QBOTF than I was with Zimmer/Spielman. The question is, then, get a QB this year or next?

Benefits of drafting a QB this year: He has one year to sit and learn behind Kirk. You don't extend Kirk and he becomes a FA after 2023, freeing up cap money next year to fix other areas quicker, and you have money in out years for a presumed JJ/Hock extension. With Kirk and the key parts of the offense back, the team can operate like last year--offense carry the weight, and hope that a new DC can somehow make the defense just a little bit better, with mostly free agency, using short term contracts like we saw last year. Then next year you go all in on defensive rebuild in the draft, but you have QB on rookie contract with JJ and Hock as great targets to throw to.

Drawbacks of drafting a QB this year: With only four picks (right now), you'll need to use an early pick at QB, and not another area of bigger need, like

/opens arms at entire defense

By not extending Kirk one extra year, you have less cap money to address immediate needs in FA and possible Hock/JJ extsnions this off-season, and those extensions are big priorities, too.

Benefits of drafting a QB next year: I am going on the assumption that if they wait in a QB they'll extend Kirk one year, through '24, so QB The Next can sit behind him his rookie year. That's the first benefit. Second benefit is they free up money for free agency this year, and can use the draft to focus on trading down, getting more picks in the 2nd/3rd round, and get some new blood for the defense. A one year Kirk extension frees up an estimated $23 mil this year from this article, which says they got their numbers from Over The Cap, but I couldn't find the original reference from OTC.

Drawbacks of drafting a QB next year: Let's say the Vikes don't extend Kirk and wait to draft a guy, which is very possible. Now you'll need a bridge guy who won't be as good as Kirk. Maybe they re-sign Nick Mullins to be that bridge guy, which right now seems like the best option. Expect a drop in wins, and it's hard to imagine the Vikes with Nick Mullins and a still bad defense a playoff team, new DC be damned.

I'm sure I'm missing a bunch of other variables as well, so please add to them as you see fit.

For me, I'm good with extending Kirk one more year and waiting on a QB.

ukvikings
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How do the Vikings find their future QB? Jan 22, 2023 12:59:52 GMT -6 via mobile legendsofthenorth and Ted Glover like this

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Post by ukvikings on Jan 22, 2023 12:59:52 GMT -6

I expect the Vikings to find their QB of the future in the 24 or 25 draft. I do not expect one this year. Regardless of the Kirk decision, I’m confident that a “natural tank” will be coming in one of the next couple years. That 7-10 or worse type season will provide a pick probably near 10 and I believe that will be the point Kwesi trades up into the top 5-7 to get one of the top QBs in that class.

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How do the Vikings find their future QB? Jan 22, 2023 13:38:27 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by ksuvike on Jan 22, 2023 13:38:27 GMT -6

I'm of the opinion hire slow(draft) fire fast(Mond). Identify your guy watch him track him and make the decision based off collegiate performance not what effin school he went too. And haven't we seen enough of the Bledsoe,school of running in quicksand type of game. Get a mobile strong throwing Herbert type they are out there. Since we seem grounded with Kirk keep at it until the right horse comes along.

Posting from the Kansas City International airport and the sad jags fans in here are something to behold. I've had time to get over the crap show last week so I'm wearing my Vikings hat and smiling at everyone! Kind of fun

Danchat
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How do the Vikings find their future QB? Jan 22, 2023 13:46:33 GMT -6 legendsofthenorth likes this

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Post by Danchat on Jan 22, 2023 13:46:33 GMT -6

Guys, what happened to legendsofthenorth's ask about this having nothing to do about Kirk? Don't we have enough other threads to debate the decision on him?

I'm with idavike and Uncle, my QB needs a baseline level of mobility. For me, I'd like to see a plus arm and some level of experience of more than one year starting in college... after that I'm lenient, he doesn't need to be some pro-ready prospect prepared to start Week 1, just not raw as sushi. Get O'Connell and the coaching staff a ball of clay that they can mold into something.

beckmt
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How do the Vikings find their future QB? Jan 22, 2023 13:58:08 GMT -6

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Post by beckmt on Jan 22, 2023 13:58:08 GMT -6

Jan 22, 2023 13:46:33 GMT -6 Danchat said:

Guys, what happened to legendsofthenorth 's ask about this having nothing to do about Kirk? Don't we have enough other threads to debate the decision on him?

I'm with idavike and Uncle , my QB needs a baseline level of mobility. For me, I'd like to see a plus arm and some level of experience of more than one year starting in college... after that I'm lenient, he doesn't need to be some pro-ready prospect prepared to start Week 1, just not raw as sushi. Get O'Connell and the coaching staff a ball of clay that they can mold into something.

we have so few draft picks this year, I don't see a QB draft now. And we have too many holes to move back out the round 1. So I am looking at 2024 as drafting a QB, unless you try and hold unto Mullens and let Kirk leave after next year. We are not going to be able to fix the defense totally this year, so I want another field stretcher to replace Thielan (and a good route runner). Cut Cook, and use the rest on defense.
Other choice is to see if Kirk will restructure down to the $25 million area, where we can find decent players to fill some of the holes, otherwise tell him this is his last year here, see if he will waive his no-trade clause, and do the best you can this year. Vikings need a more moblie QB, does not have to be like Hurts or Fields, but at least can move around, agree with Uncle , he needs a pocket presence. Colleges are turning out more pro type QB's than ever, it is finding the right one.

whoskmoon
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How do the Vikings find their future QB? Jan 22, 2023 16:44:14 GMT -6 GermanViking likes this

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Post by whoskmoon on Jan 22, 2023 16:44:14 GMT -6

They go back in time and draft the best QB in the 2022 draft when they have the chance. He has the mobility and arm talent you want in a modern QB and the Vikings would not have been any worse this season spending that first on him versus what they ended up using it for. In fact, they might have actually been better, since there would have been a good chance they wouldn't have drafted Ingram.

I can almost guarantee they will not have an opportunity to draft a QB with as much potential as Pickett in 2023, and while they are likely to be picking higher in 2024 and might have an opportunity to trade up then, by that season you have wasted another 2 years of JJ, O'Neil, Darrisaw and Hockenson in their primes.

This draft a QB and have him sit for a year thing is garbage, btw. Let him learn on the job as a rookie and he will be better in his sophomore season than if he had just sat and watched others play football.

FSUVike
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How do the Vikings find their future QB? Jan 22, 2023 20:28:37 GMT -6 via mobile Funkytown likes this

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Post by FSUVike on Jan 22, 2023 20:28:37 GMT -6

Let's get some revenge for the Ponder error and draft Jordan Travis in '24. Can run. Hit all levels (not a bazooka arm though), excels off-platform. Showed massive improvement from his first year to his second one.

He's kind of skinny. Started slow a couple of games in terms of accuracy.

But here's the thing. There will be 3 or 4 kids like him in '24. Not all of them will elevate their final year into Bryce Young/CJ Stroud territory. And that's a good thing because that means you won't have to get into the Top 5 to get one.

The Chiefs approach is really appealing to me. Mahomes wasn't some sure fire can't miss pick. Reid and his Staff and FO did what we are doing in this thread: identify the traits they are looking for and then figure out who has those traits that they can develop.

Cousins is just like Alex Smith. And I truly think it's important to stay competitive while you are getting ready to transition to your QBOTF. So many Teams seem to hit on the high QB pick early but ultimately both the kid and the Team flame out because 80% of the Players on the Roster are so used to losing they can't change the culture like flipping a switch.

So I'm looking at '24, where there will most likely be more guys that you shouldn't have to sell the farm to move up to get, that can run when it's warranted or by design, but can also make plays off-platform, that can sit for most of his Rookie season and develop instead of getting thrown into the deep end of the pool.

Uncle
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How do the Vikings find their future QB? Jan 22, 2023 21:46:51 GMT -6 Funkytown, beckmt, and 2 more like this

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Post by Uncle on Jan 22, 2023 21:46:51 GMT -6

This guy tells us how we find our future QB...the same way at least one team in this year's Super Bowl and the previous three found theirs...

2022: either Burrow, Hurts, or Purdy will be in it
2021: Burrow
2020: Mahomes was on his at the time
2019: Goff

The trick is finding a good one and developing him, something that has alluded this team for a long time...

...but it doesn't hurt to get the roster in better shape for when O'Connell does find one...

Last Edit: Jan 22, 2023 21:47:11 GMT -6 by Uncle

legendsofthenorth
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How do the Vikings find their future QB? Jan 22, 2023 21:57:43 GMT -6 via mobile FSUVike likes this

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Post by legendsofthenorth on Jan 22, 2023 21:57:43 GMT -6

Jan 22, 2023 20:28:37 GMT -6 FSUVike said:

Let's get some revenge for the Ponder error and draft Jordan Travis in '24. Can run. Hit all levels (not a bazooka arm though), excels off-platform. Showed massive improvement from his first year to his second one.

He's kind of skinny. Started slow a couple of games in terms of accuracy.

But here's the thing. There will be 3 or 4 kids like him in '24. Not all of them will elevate their final year into Bryce Young/CJ Stroud territory. And that's a good thing because that means you won't have to get into the Top 5 to get one.

The Chiefs approach is really appealing to me. Mahomes wasn't some sure fire can't miss pick. Reid and his Staff and FO did what we are doing in this thread: identify the traits they are looking for and then figure out who has those traits that they can develop.

Cousins is just like Alex Smith. And I truly think it's important to stay competitive while you are getting ready to transition to your QBOTF. So many Teams seem to hit on the high QB pick early but ultimately both the kid and the Team flame out because 80% of the Players on the Roster are so used to losing they can't change the culture like flipping a switch.

So I'm looking at '24, where there will most likely be more guys that you shouldn't have to sell the farm to move up to get, that can run when it's warranted or by design, but can also make plays off-platform, that can sit for most of his Rookie season and develop instead of getting thrown into the deep end of the pool.

I am going to watch him next year. You have me curious

diehardtwinsfan
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How do the Vikings find their future QB? Jan 23, 2023 7:40:48 GMT -6

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Post by diehardtwinsfan on Jan 23, 2023 7:40:48 GMT -6

Jan 22, 2023 21:46:51 GMT -6 Uncle said:

This guy tells us how we find our future QB...the same way at least one team in this year's Super Bowl and the previous three found theirs...

2022: either Burrow, Hurts, or Purdy will be in it
2021: Burrow
2020: Mahomes was on his at the time
2019: Goff

The trick is finding a good one and developing him, something that has alluded this team for a long time...

...but it doesn't hurt to get the roster in better shape for when O'Connell does find one...

Let's not pretend there's some slight of hand here. It's not like SF isn't paying Garapolo... or Lance for that matter too (though he's still on a rookie deal)...

Uncle
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How do the Vikings find their future QB? Jan 23, 2023 8:04:06 GMT -6 Purple Pain and legendsofthenorth like this

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Post by Uncle on Jan 23, 2023 8:04:06 GMT -6

Jan 23, 2023 7:40:48 GMT -6 diehardtwinsfan said:

Let's not pretend there's some slight of hand here. It's not like SF isn't paying Garapolo... or Lance for that matter too (though he's still on a rookie deal)...

I think the point is still relevant: effective starting QB's playing on the rookie contract can afford the team to invest their cap dollars on the rest of the team to fill it out.

Here is SF's 2022 Cap Dollars for the QB position:

Jimmy G: $12.6m
T Lance: $7.8m
Purdy: $0.7m
Josh Johnson: $0.2m
Total - $21.3m

For comparison purposes, the Vikings had $32.7m allocated in 2022 cap dollars in the QB position between Cousins/Mullens - approx $11.4m more.

In 2023, Cousins is set to count $36.3m against the 2023 cap, whereas SF's total QB cap investment in 2023 is only $10.2m between Purdy/Lance - approx $26.1m less than what the Vikings will allocate.

The 49ers have built a solid roster through solid Drafts, smart acquisitions and roster development through effective coaching. You could say the same things about all four teams currently remaining in the Conference Championships this weekend...

...if the "QB rookie deal" is the goose that lays golden, Super Bowl contender tickets, then the Vikings need to build up their roster first through effective drafting/coaching before they go full-on Veruca Salt and start chasing that elusive golden goose.

whoskmoon
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How do the Vikings find their future QB? Jan 23, 2023 9:11:23 GMT -6

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Post by whoskmoon on Jan 23, 2023 9:11:23 GMT -6

Jan 23, 2023 8:04:06 GMT -6 Uncle said:

Jan 23, 2023 7:40:48 GMT -6 diehardtwinsfan said:

Let's not pretend there's some slight of hand here. It's not like SF isn't paying Garapolo... or Lance for that matter too (though he's still on a rookie deal)...

I think the point is still relevant: effective starting QB's playing on the rookie contract can afford the team to invest their cap dollars on the rest of the team to fill it out.

Here is SF's 2022 Cap Dollars for the QB position:

Jimmy G: $12.6m
T Lance: $7.8m
Purdy: $0.7m
Josh Johnson: $0.2m
Total - $21.3m

For comparison purposes, the Vikings had $32.7m allocated in 2022 cap dollars in the QB position between Cousins/Mullens - approx $11.4m more.

In 2023, Cousins is set to count $36.3m against the 2023 cap, whereas SF's total QB cap investment in 2023 is only $10.2m between Purdy/Lance - approx $26.1m less than what the Vikings will allocate.

The 49ers have built a solid roster through solid Drafts, smart acquisitions and roster development through effective coaching. You could say the same things about all four teams currently remaining in the Conference Championships this weekend...

...if the "QB rookie deal" is the goose that lays golden, Super Bowl contender tickets, then the Vikings need to build up their roster first through effective drafting/coaching before they go full-on Veruca Salt and start chasing that elusive golden goose.

You can't just look at the current year for this though. The cap is managed over multiple years, and SF knows they don't have to spend big money on the QB for another couple of seasons so they can invest that 70+ extra million saved in 2024 and 2025 on current players.

Jor-El
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How do the Vikings find their future QB? Jan 23, 2023 9:33:25 GMT -6 Danchat, Purple Pain, and 4 more like this

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Post by Jor-El on Jan 23, 2023 9:33:25 GMT -6

Re the original question of "How do we find a QB?", I think this team has had a fundamental problem the past 20 years: QB identification and coaching. I don't care if this has been due to the HC or GM - none of the guys in either job have known how to find and foster one since Denny Green. Interestingly, Denny only drafted one (Daunte) high, but despite his small hands, Culpepper looked like he would have been fantastic for years before he got injured. But Denny pulled guys off the street (Cunningham) or who had been bouncing around the league (George, McMahon) and made them better.

I used to rail about Rick Spielman for various reasons, but IMO the biggest reason was that he COULD NOT FIND A QB. Maybe he was a wizard with trades or the salary cap or identifying athletic pass rushers or whatever else; he couldn't get this team a QB. Ponder was crap, Bridgewater was never going to be more than the mediocre backup he is now, and he passed on many QBs. He hired coaches (Frazier, Zimmer) who didn't have the skillset to pick and develop a QB, so it was up to the GM. By 2016 he knew he couldn't find and develop one so he became totally committed to acquiring QBs that seemed to have already been developed in the NFL (Bradford, Cousins). But when you limit yourself to others' leftovers, you only eat scraps. I don't know if the Wilfs realized or acted for this reason, but he needed to go as soon as it was clear he could not find a winning QB.

IMO the "trade up to get the best or nearly-best QB in a draft" is not a necessary approach. Plenty of #1 QBs in any draft have busted, mostly because they were picked by an incompetent coach. Few people thought Josh Allen was the best QB in the 2018 draft. Daniel Jones, not Kyler Murray, might end up the best QB from the 2020 draft. It's all about coaching. Trevor Lawrence looked like a potential bust with Urban Meyer; one year with Doug Pederson and he's a star. Pat Mahomes: do you really think he's a superstar if he was picked by the Bears?? (Or Browns or Jets or...) No. Andy Reid identified him and then fostered his talent. Few if any QBs become superstars on a team with bad QB coaching.

So I believe the answer to "how do we get a great QB?" is to get a coach who can identify a prospect that they know they can mold into a success. So the Vikings have already taken the action they believe will succeed in hiring O'Connell. We don't know if he really is able to do it, but they need to trust him now. If KOC looks at this year's prospects and says, "I'm CERTAIN that Will Levis (or Anthony Richardson or Tanner McKee or whoever) is THE GUY and I can coach him into the next Josh Allen or Justin Herbert", they need to skip all those LB or CB needs and move up to get his guy, even if that takes trading next year's picks. No one looks back and says, "Oh the Chiefs really needed that 2018 #1 pick they gave up for Mahomes" or "Geez the Bills could have filled some defensive holes if they didn't trade 2 2nd-rounders to get Allen". (And if KOC says "no one great is in this draft, wait until 2024", trust that too.)

If you hired a coach that you believe can find and develop a franchise quarterback, then you better support him when he wants his guy. It doesn't matter what we fans or draft journalists think of the guy he picks. If he's wrong, you hired the wrong coach. Now we need to find out if we hired the right one.

Last Edit: Jan 23, 2023 9:37:12 GMT -6 by Jor-El