How do the Vikings find their future QB?
May 7, 2023 19:07:39 GMT -6
Funkytown and comet52 like this
Post by Danchat on May 7, 2023 19:07:39 GMT -6
Thanks for following up on this.
First, sports betting exploded in the past 5 years with legalization. Second, sportsbooks were hungry to gain customers and were handing out bonuses, etc. in an effort to get them. This coincided with them opening markets on props and things like the draft that hadn't been widely available in the past, as part of the overall marketing effort. It then led to the books getting slaughtered in the draft betting markets over the last few years.
I also read an article that the books were killed on the draft in 2021 and 2022, and I had noticed far fewer bets that were available.
This led to them tightening things last year and even moreso this year, mainly in the form of limiting bet sizes as well as limiting props, opening markets late--in some cases just a couple of days before the draft, etc. In the case of things like the draft or other events with predetermined outcomes like say the Oscars, their hands are tied in some ways. For example once the Bryce Young to Carolina news solidified, all they could do is move the line as fast as they could to limit losses, but it's a loss nevertheless on all the action they took at any number--unlike a game with an unknown outcome where even an unbalanced book can clean up on things landing right. So there are a number of situations where they can't get two-way action and end up getting toasted.
I don't know why they didn't just pull the bets on the 1st overall pick once everyone knew it was going to be Young? They should have at least a couple days before the draft, though I guess they got some free donations from delusional fools who thought Levis was going #1.
I've heard a tale of pros who made 6 figures on the draft 2-3 years ago, now lucky to make 1/10 of that or less due limited markets, etc. The books are going to protect themselves.
Impressive, so it appears I've started analyzing the betting odds too late.
The limits are never going back up imho and thus I don't think the markets will ever be nearly as useful as they were a few years back, even last year. In sportsbetting, market efficiency is driven by professional money, with virtually no exceptions. When significant pro action is removed from the equation the market loses it's value. The goofy uselessness of the markets this year IMO marks the point of no return in that regard.
There were still a handful of things that the odds nailed, the O/U of some players were precisely on point - WR Jordan Addison, DT Bryan Bresee, WR Zay Flowers, TE Dalton Kincaid were all nailed. A few others clued me in on players I was questionable about going in the first round - Will McDonald was -320 to go in the first and Calijah Kancey was -210.
Oof, but Jahmyr Gibbs was +280 to go in the 1st round. That was free money! Thankfully I got in on the under on Hooker 31.5 at +210.
I also read an article that the books were killed on the draft in 2021 and 2022, and I had noticed far fewer bets that were available.
I don't know why they didn't just pull the bets on the 1st overall pick once everyone knew it was going to be Young? They should have at least a couple days before the draft, though I guess they got some free donations from delusional fools who thought Levis was going #1.
Impressive, so it appears I've started analyzing the betting odds too late.
There were still a handful of things that the odds nailed, the O/U of some players were precisely on point - WR Jordan Addison, DT Bryan Bresee, WR Zay Flowers, TE Dalton Kincaid were all nailed. A few others clued me in on players I was questionable about going in the first round - Will McDonald was -320 to go in the first and Calijah Kancey was -210.
Oof, but Jahmyr Gibbs was +280 to go in the 1st round. That was free money! Thankfully I got in on the under on Hooker 31.5 at +210.
... and neither is this Chris guy.