With the 23rd pick, your Minnesota Vikings select...

Trading back can be logical, but needs a trade partner. Who would be available at 23 that a team would want to trade up for but WE shouldn't be taking for ourselves?

Both Cincinnati and Kansas City need OT's and it's very likely that one of Darnell Wright, Anton Harrison or Dawand Jones will be there in the early 20's (assuming Pittsburgh doesn't take one at #17). Plus, Kansas City could use another WR weapon after losing JuJu to free agency, and might be looking at Quentin Johnston, Jordan Addison, Jaylen Hyatt or possibly Zay Flowers to compliment their existing offensive skill position players. 

Another reason why Kansas City could make sense is that the Draft is in Kansas City this year and they could look to make a splash on Day 1 by moving up from #31 to the early 20's for a WR (like Johnston) that could make it there. 

Finally, Kansas City made nearly the same trade last year when they were sitting at #29 and moved up 8 spots to New England's spot at #21 to select CB Trent McDuffie - it cost the Chiefs a 3rd (#94) and a 4th (#121) to make that move up...

Let's go to the Rich Hill Model of the Trade Value Chart to see how the Patriots made out in terms of "Draft Points" in that 2022 trade back:

New England received:
Pick #29 (Rd 1) - 202 pts
Pick #94 (Rd 3) - 43 pts
Pick #121 (Rd 4) - 23 pts)
Total - 268 pts

Kansas City Received:
Pick #21 (Rd 1) - 261 pts
Total - 261 pts

New England was able to pick up 2 extra picks and 7 add'l draft pts, which is the equivalent of a 6th Rd pick. Kansas City had the add'l Draft capital last year thanks to the Tyreek Hill trade, and wouldn't ya know it, they have an additional 4th again this year, #122 overall. 

It's almost like it was meant to be:

Minnesota receives:
Pick #31 (Rd 1) - 190 pts
Pick #95 (Rd 3) - 40 pts
Pick #122 (Rd 4) - 23 pts
Total - 253 pts

Kansas City receives:
Pick #23 (Rd 1) - 245 pts
Total - 245 pts

Similar to 2022, Kanasas City would be giving up an add'l 8 draft pts to make the move up, and Kwesi/O'Connell/Flores get an add'l two picks to round out the roster. Kansas City also has two 7th Rd picks (#249 and #250) and although they proved last year they can have success finding value in the 7th (both CB Jaylen Watson and RB Isaiah Pacheco were selected by the Chiefs in the 7th and they played significant/productive snaps for them in Year 1), I wouldn't mind if they "threw us a bone" and tossed in a 7th, too. 
 

To build on Uncle 's realistic and specific example, you can create a plausible situation for almost every team below us:

Cowboys: #26 + #129 + #212: to move ahead of the Giants for a WR Quentin Johnson

Bills: #27 + #130 + #205: also needs a receiver behind the Giants and Cowboys, or to move ahead of Jags or Giants for a CB

Bengals: #28 + #92: also could move up ahead of Jags and Bills for a CB

Saints: #29 + #71 (Vikings give back #119): Need D-Line, they could move up for Bryan Bresee ahead of the Bills

Eagles: Might also want Bresee, the picks don't align very well, but I'm sure things could be balanced with a 2024 pick from one side or the other.  

Cardinals: #34 + #66 is pretty close if there is a defender they like.  

[puts on tin foil hat] It's really the Vikings who have started all the rumors about how great Hendon Hooker is and how they want to take him in the 2nd to bait the Seahawks into trading #37 + #52 for #23 + #158 to come up to draft Hooker.  

And that's not even getting that wild - and it doesn't touch the crazier situations where a team gives up multiple picks because "we only had 20 players with a 1st round grade and Dude here was the last one" (teams like that overpay because they can't count very well).  And by "A team" I mean "the Raiders" trading #38 + #70 + #109.

The primary interest for the Vikings in trading back in Round 1 this year is the fact we currently only have 5 total Draft picks, and with several holes on the current 90-man roster, we need every draft pick we can get to plug 'em.

As far as the Chiefs go, there are three decent reasons they make sense:

1) They have set a precedent last season of giving fair value back in a trade; they traded-up with New England in the 2022 Draft in nearly the same spot we're in (Pats were #21 and KC was #29 last year and we're #23 and KC is #31 this year - both yrs separated by 8 draft spots) and they gave New England a 3rd and 4th that were worth "more" in Draft points than what the Patriots 21st overall pick was worth.

2) You're trading with an AFC Team and not anyone in the NFC North or NFC.

3) Depending on how the Draft Board falls on Day 1, the prospects available in the early 20's of Round 1 all the way through a good chunk of Round 2 are graded similar, so it's not like 2022 where the Vikings would be missing out on a "blue-chip" player when they traded back from #12 to #32. In terms of "value", the Vikings would essentially be getting more value because they would be drafting a similarily-graded player at #31 and they get two extra picks in the middle rounds. 

An additional reason I mentioned earlier why it might make more sense to trade with KC is that since the Draft this year is in Kansas City, it's possible they may want to make a "splash" on Day 1 to move up for a skill position player (say, WR Quentin Johnston if he's on the board) and they could possibly pay an additional "premium" (maybe throw in an add'l 7th Rd pick, in addition to a 3rd and 4th Rd) to make that "splash" play on Day 1.

I've said it. Uncle has said it. Midwinter has said it. Dane Brugler has said it, along with many Draft Experts who literally do this for a living. Maybe all caps will work?

THERE AREN'T 24 1ST ROUND GRADED PLAYERS IN THE 2023 NFL DRAFT.

Now factor in that OT, which Minnesota absolutely is not going to pick, comprises 3-4 of that total. Now you get 20 or less.

If Minnesota is sitting at #23 and the only Players left are Tackles or Players at Positions of Need with 2nd Round Grades, why shouldn't Minnesota trade back?

Floyd? Legends? What's your rationale for not trading back? Do you have different grades? Or an irrational hated for trading back?

I will say it again. None of the WRs likely available in the 1st meet the Height/Weight/Speed threshold of successful NFL Receivers. Only Steve Smith, Wes Welker and Tyler Lockett have been successful at less than 5'10 OR 180 pounds.

Do you really want to spend a 1st Round pick, with no 2nd, on a 5'10 kid that's as skinny as Addison? Or on the 5'9 Flowers? JSN won't be there.

Quentin Johnston checks all the boxes. And has issues with drops. And ran the same route tree as Minnesota Vikings Fan Favorite Jalen Raegor.

The 3 CBs with true 1st Round grades will be long gone. Calijah Kancey has the shortest wingspan of any DT in over a decade. His anchor is Bradbury-esque.

Like Daunte said, it's almost down to Bresee or trade back. And if you can't you hold your nose and take Banks or an Edge that has the exact same grade as the next 4 Edges that will be picked between 24 and 50.

I get it if you don't care about the NFL historically not seeing guys the sizs of most of these WRs produce. Or aren't scared of Johnston's bad hands and rawness. Or aren't bothered by how short Kancey's arms are. Or think Mazi Smith and his half a sack is worth it. I like all of them....

At a lower pick that means Kwesi added more Draft Capital. The Vikings need two CBs. An Inside Linebacker to groom to replace Hicks. Someone to compete with Lowry, who is a low end Starter. Edge competition if Z and/or Hunter gets traded. A legit WR2. An Inside Offensive Lineman to groom to replace Cleveland or Bradbury. Heck, a Running Back would be nice too.

They have 5 picks. Only 2 in the Top 100, which is the meat of this Draft Class. As Uncle mentioned, Minnesota is way too far back to get a Blue Chip Prospect. This Class is much lighter on true Blue Chip kids than last year as well. That's the determination of the vast majority of Draft Analysts.

Staying put is stubborn and dogmatic unless you have a case for a specific Player. Many disagree with me that Bresee is a 1st Round talent because he had the ACL and never repeated his herculean Freshman year. Good. I welcome the discussion. So let's hear who you think is worth staying put. I'm all ears and my opinion can be changed.

Simple statistics: how do you increase the odds of trying to win the lottery? The only way is to buy more tickets to increase your chances...

It's nearly the same principle: the more dart throws - or in this case, draft picks, you have to Draft one of those really good/HOF players, the better your odds are of hitting on the picks.

...and once you have the increased chances, you just need to hit on them. In 2021, the Vikings came into Round 1 w/ the 14th overall pick in Round 1 and then two 3rd Rd picks (3 picks in the Top 100). Rick traded down in the 1st Rd w/ the Jets to #23 and selected Christian Darrisaw, and acquired two add'l 3rd Rd picks in the process, giving the Vikings 5 total picks in the Top 100...

...and then Rick squandered those 3rd Rd picks away, so that's a case of flushing extra picks down the toilet...

On the flipside, in 2020, the Vikings traded down again in the 1st Rd with San Franciso (after they already selected Jefferson), and they acquired a 4th and 5th Rd pick for doing so. That 5th Rd pick they acquired from SF in the trade-back was used to acquire KJ Osborn, who's turned out to be a decent WR for the Vikings and helped fill out the WR room/depth chart for the last few seasons.

That was Rick in a nutshell, IMO: about a "C/B-" success rate as a GM in Minnesota - won some and lost some. I think we're all hopin' that Kwesi has a better batting average than Rick did when he's up-to-bat with his trade-down picks...

...but what if you can get $150 of value by shopping at two stores? Yeah, I can get those nice new Air Jordan sneakers at Foot Locker, but do I really need them? What if I got the Air Flight sneakers at a discount at TJ Max (same thing, just without the Jordan Air logo), and with the savings, I also got a pair of work boots at Famous Footwear?

What if the quality of the player you can get at #31 is the same quality of a player you can get at #23, and then get two additional picks in the process?