Vikings Vets and How They Stack Up to the Rest of the League

The Vikings have some decisions to make as they head into this off season when it comes to which players to retain and which to let go.  A big part of that decision making will be how much longer a player has before they regress to where they are not worth what they are getting paid (if they haven't hit that point already).  With that being said, let's look at players most likely to not be on the team next season and how their years in the league stack up to the rest of the league at their positions. 

First up, the player who is currently defying the most odds and playing at a high level, Patrick Peterson.  Drafted in 2011, Patrick Peterson is one of two players drafted in that year or earlier to play any snaps this season at CB along with Chris Harris Jr.  He is also the only player drafted prior to 2013 to play in all 17 regular season games and is one of only 2 CBs drafted prior to 2014 to accomplish that feat.  Playing well at CB and remaining healthy while doing so past the 10 season mark is clearly incredibly rare, and the Vikings would be wise to take that into consideration when negotiating with his agent on an extension. His last season at the age of 32 was already defying the odds, and it is incredibly unlikely he is able to continue at this level next season.   

Next, Za'Darius Smith began showing his age towards the end of last season, but even with that decline he was still very good.  Edge rusher's last longer than corner backs in the NFL and Jerry Hughes and Brandon Graham both played at a high level while remaining relatively healthy the entire season despite being drafted in 2010.  Looking at edge rushers who have been in the league as long or longer than Z will be next season, zero players drafted in 2014 achieved double digits sacks and the highest pressure total for any of these edge rushers was Kahlil Mack at 59.  Three of the nine edge rushers who remained of the of 2014 class managed to play in all of their team's games this season.  The 2013 draft class had zero edge rushers play in more than three games, the 2012 class had one in Melvin Ingram III, the 2011 class had two players reach the end of the season relatively healthy and playing well.  In total that is eight edge rushers who remained relatively healthy and a similar number who actually played well.  For context, their were 47 edge rushers to remain relatively healthy in the five draft classes after 2014.  Again we see that the odds are not great for Smith, and unlike Patrick Peterson, he has shown significant signs of breaking down physically.

Another member of the 2015 draft class, Eric Kendricks, plays at a position that more closely resembles corner backs in terms of remaining viable 10 years into their careers.  There were only five linebackers drafted in 2014 or earlier who made it to the end of the season without missing significant time, and only four who played at a high level while doing so.  Even if Kendricks was playing well, and he isn't, it would be time to consider moving on.  

Jordan Hicks, see above.  He was drafted in the same year as Kendricks and based on the production of vets with his number of years in the league, should be an easy choice to move on from. 

Harrison Smith is one of five safeties who remain from draft classes prior to 2013.  He is also the only one of those five that missed time with injuries this season.  There aren't any safeties remaining from the 2011 draft class and the 2010 draft class is the only class prior to 2012  with safeties who played this season, with Jackson and McCourtey playing okay or better at their positions with two more seasons than Smith currently has.

Moving onto the offensive side of the ball, and the running back position. Dalvin was drafted in 2017, and looking at running backs drafted in 2016 and earlier, Derick Henry was the only running back that rushed for more than 900 yards.  Mostert and Patterson were the only two running backs who surpassed 4.5 yards per carry as well, and neither one of them have been the feature back for more than a couple of seasons.   Henry is a physical freak, similar to Adrian Peterson and was coming off a season where he took a lot fewer hits than he typically does.  That won't be the case with Cook.   The Vikings would be wise to force a restructure or move on.

Adam Thielen wasn't drafted, but wide receivers drafted prior to 2013, the year he entered the league, have not faired well.  Not one with more than 600 yards receiving, and only two broke the 400 yard mark.  Even if you include 2013 there are still 0 wide receivers who broke 800 yards.  Based on that and Thielen's cap number he is another player the Vikings should look to force a restructure or move on from.

Kirk Cousins is the final aging vet and he plays a position Tom Brady and Drew Brees have skewed people's opinions on when exactly QBs start to regress.  It isn't actually at the age of 40 for most QBs and is in fact significantly earlier.  Looking at the 2011 or earlier draft classes, only one QB drafted before 2012 made the playoffs and zero remain in the playoffs.  Every QB but Andy Dalton drafted in 2012 or earlier had a significant down year statistically and most of the QBs drafted prior to 2013 still playing many consider they are on their last legs.  Even QB is a young man's position despite what Tom Brady has managed to do.

Kwesi is a self admitted analytics guy and age and years of service is a major part of the analytics that go into deciding player's fates.  He knows all of the above and that is why while fans might think there are some tough decisions ahead, the decisions are actually pretty easy to make.