2023 Offseason Discussion (moves, rumors, hopes & dreams!)
Jan 16, 2023 10:00:34 GMT -6
Funkytown, beckmt, and 15 more like this
Post by Uncle on Jan 16, 2023 10:00:34 GMT -6
I think it's always good to set deadlines/dates to the offseason and prioritize what needs to be done when, and one of the most important dates for the offseason is always the start of the league year in mid-March, which starts free agency. This year that starts on 3/15, which means the "legal tampering" will start 2-days prior on 3/13, so for all intent and purposes, the league year starts on 3/13.
Tasks prior to 3/13:
1. Finalize coaching staff for 2023 season: while it's certainly possible to hire some assistant positoinal coaches after the league year starts, the Vikings should at least finalize all decisions on the "major" coaches, and I think we all know what side of the ball we're talking about here. Although I don't think the Vikings lose too many assistant coaches to other teams, O'Connell should quickly fill any openings and already have individuals in-mind should they come up.
2. Decision on franchise/transition tag (2/21 - 3/7): before they get to other player decisions, they should decide if they want to "tag" any players. I don't think the Vikings have any players that warrant this so it should be easy.
3. Decisions on players with significant bonuses at start of league year: some players have roster bonuses due to them if they are on the roster at the start-of or a few days into the league year. Here are Viking "significant" players with roster bonuses:
- Cousins: $20m roster bonus becomes guaranteed a few days after league year starts (3/20 or 3/23); it's an annual tradition to have to make a decision on whether to give Kirk a short-term extension and push more cap down the road and the Front Office will have to make the decision yet again. They could convert that $20m roster bonus to a signing bonus and kick a significant portion of that $20m to future seasons to free up room in 2023.
- Thielen: $11.8m base salary in '23 becomes fully guaranteed; I seriously doubt any team trades for him so the decision boils down to 3 options: 1) outright release (players can be released starting on 2/13) with no designation, or 2) release with post 6/1 designation (frees up more cap room, but only after 6/1) or 3) pay cut. I think 1) or 2) are the most likely outcomes and Thielen might decide to retire, too, which could make this a non-decision.
- O'Neill: $14.5m of 2023 base salary becomes fully guaranteed on 3/18; he'll be on 2023+ roster, but it's possible the front office taps into O'Neill's contract to push cap dollars to future seasons to free up room for 2023 free agents. Personally, I would leave O'Neill's contract "as-is" for 2023 and see how his 2023 season plays out after his injury at the end of 2022.
- Z Smith: $5.1m of 2023 base salary becomes fully guaranteed near start of league year. Z Smith also has a $3m roster bonus in '23 that can be converted to a signing bonus to kick "some" cap dollars to future seasons. The Vikings could also release Z Smith with relatively little dead cap ($3.3m) and save $12.3m in '23 cap dollars. I think this decision depends on the defensive coaching staff decision; if we stay in a 3-4 "Fangio Shell" style defense (regardless of who the Defensive Coodinator is), then it's likely Z Smith stays and we possibly tap into his contract to kick cap dollars to future seasons. If a new defensive coaching staff wants the Vikings to go to back to a 4-3, it's possible Z Smith is released.
- Cook: $2m of 2023 base salary becomes guaranteed on 3/17. I still standby the notion that Kwesi goes into the Winter Meetings (aka, Combine week, which is 2/28 - 3/6) to see if there are any takers on a possible Cook trade. It's possible a contending team takes on Cook and restructures his contract to lower his '23 cap hit for a Day 3 draft pick. If there are no takers, then an outright release is on the table because I seriously doubt he takes a pay cut and there is no way I tap into his contract to push any cap dollars to future seasons.
- H Smith: $1.5m of 2023 base salary becomes guaranteed on 3/18. If released pre-6/1, Vikes could save $7.4m in '23 cap dollars, but carry an $11.7m dead cap hit. If they designate him a post 6/1 release, the Vikings save $15.2m and only carry a $3.9m dead cap hit, but they don't get that get savings until 6/1 which is after a majority of free agents will have signed. The big problem here is that you didn't see enough of Cine in '22 to see if he can possibly take over and although Metellus is decent depth, he's probably not ready for starting snaps - Bynum certainly proved he's not. One thing is for sure: the Viking's can't keep Harry on the books for a $19.2m cap hit in '23 - his play is still decent, but it's not worth that much and you certainly don't want to tap into his contract to push his '23 cap dollars to future seasons. It's possible H Smith is a target for a 2023 reduction/void like the Vikes did with Anthony Barr in 2021 - it would reduce his 2023 cap hit down to where his play is but would cost the Vikings some dead cap in 2024. It's either that or he's outright released and we "eat" $11.7m (pre-6/1) or $3.9m (post-6/1) in '23 dead cap.
- Hicks: $1.5m of 2023 base salary becomes guaranteed on 3/18. If released, the Vikings save $5.0m on the '23 cap vs a $1.5m dead cap hit - it's an easy decison, IMO.
4. Other significant player decisions - these players don't have roster bonuses due, but they are either significant players on the Vikings roster or they have significant 2023 cap dollars that require a decison how much to invest before free agency starts.
- Hunter: his contract was setup last season to extend him this offseason; it would cost the Vikings $18m in '23 cap to release/trade him so the haul in any trade would need to include a significant return in the '23 Draft or significant players back to recoup. If I'm Kwesi, I go into the Winter Meetings to see what sort of return I could get for a Hunter trade; while the $18m dead cap hit in '23 is significant if traded, if you get enough back in players/'23 Draft capital, then you consider it. If not, then you need to talk extension. Some fans might say that Hunter is better suited to a 4-3 defense so they'd wait and see what happens with the Defensive coaching staff before any decision is made on Hunter, but he proved he's enough of a good player that he's effective in either a 3-4 or 4-3, so I'm not sure it the defensive coaching staff matters too much. One factor that comes into play is if Hunter actually wants to be here: he has made it known he wants to get paid and he will want his extension after he proved he can still play at a high level after two injury-riddled seasons. While Hunter is certainly good, I honestly don't think he's worth "elite" level cap dollars so if he wants to be paid Top 3 EDGE dollars, I probably trade him. Yeah, that leaves us with an aging Z Smith and not much else behind him who can start (that's the price of not drafting Drake Jackson in Rd 2 in 2022), but you also can't saddle this team with an "elite" cap investment to a players who's certainly good, but not quite among the league's elite - you're going to end up in another bad contract in a few seasons.
- Tomlinson: contract voids on 2/23 so they'll need to decide whether they want to extend him or not - if the Vikings move on, they will carry a $7.5m dead cap hit in '23. He's the most disruptive DT they currently have so there's a reason to extend, but if he wants $10m+ a year, is that worth it? If they could structure the extension to lessen the '23 cap from $7.5m down to something lower while having it be flexible like Z Smith's, then it's probably worth it. If he wants really big guaranteed money that would cause difficulties to release him should his play rapidly decline in the next 2-3 yrs, then I probably walk away.
- Hockenson: 5th yr option cost of $9.3m in 2023 and is probably due an extension. I don't think it needs to get done immediately and it's possible they wait until they have more cap flexibility if they designate players like Thielen/H Smith as post-6/1 release designations.
- Kendricks: $11.4m 2023 cap hit and Vikings could save $9.5m if released with a $1.9m dead cap hit. Seems like an easy decison to me.
- Ham: $3.8m 2023 cap hit and Vikings could save $3.1m if released with a $0.8m dead cap hit. Seems like an easy decision to me.
5. Decisions on Viking UFA - the following players are UFA in 2023 and the Vikings will need to decide if they want to retain any before they hit the open market on 3/13: Patrick Peterson (CB1), Garrett Bradbury (OC1), Greg Joseph (K1), Irv Smith (TE2), Chandon Sullivan (NCB1), Duke Shelley (CB2/3), Nick Mullens (QB2), Jonathan Bullard (DE4), Austin Schlottman (OC2), Alexander Mattison (RB2), Andrew DePaola (LS1), Oli Udoh (RT2), Kris Boyd (CB5/6), Bisi Johnson. The biggest decisions are the players with the "1" in parentheses because they are starters that will definitely need to be replaced in free agency and/or the 2023 Draft if they aren't retained. Everyone else is a depth player that won't cost too much to replace (either through Tier 2/3 free agent signings), the 2023 Draft or through depth players already on roster.
Tasks post 3/13
1. 5th yr Options Decisions on 2020 1st Rd players - the Vikings will need to decide by 5/1 if the want to exercise 5th yr options on Jefferson and Reagor, which is an easy decision.
2. Extension Decisions on 2020 Drafted Players - they can then start talking about extensions to players who are eligible (Jefferson, Ezra, Dantzler, Lynch, Wonnum, Osborn & Metellus). The two obvious ones are Jefferson and Ezra with Osborn deserving a bit of consideration, but that might depend what the Vikings do in '23 free agency and '23 Draft.
3. 2023 Draft Prep - this has already started as the Scouting Dept does this year-round and I'm sure Kwesi and others are involved during the January All-Star game circuit and Combine, but Pro Days start on 3/7, which is also the first day teams can commence with Top 30 visits. The "heavy lifting" for the Draft prep is probably done after the initial rush if Tier 1/Tier 2 of free agency in mid-March. The 2023 Draft is on 4/27 - 4/29.
Tasks prior to 3/13:
1. Finalize coaching staff for 2023 season: while it's certainly possible to hire some assistant positoinal coaches after the league year starts, the Vikings should at least finalize all decisions on the "major" coaches, and I think we all know what side of the ball we're talking about here. Although I don't think the Vikings lose too many assistant coaches to other teams, O'Connell should quickly fill any openings and already have individuals in-mind should they come up.
2. Decision on franchise/transition tag (2/21 - 3/7): before they get to other player decisions, they should decide if they want to "tag" any players. I don't think the Vikings have any players that warrant this so it should be easy.
3. Decisions on players with significant bonuses at start of league year: some players have roster bonuses due to them if they are on the roster at the start-of or a few days into the league year. Here are Viking "significant" players with roster bonuses:
- Cousins: $20m roster bonus becomes guaranteed a few days after league year starts (3/20 or 3/23); it's an annual tradition to have to make a decision on whether to give Kirk a short-term extension and push more cap down the road and the Front Office will have to make the decision yet again. They could convert that $20m roster bonus to a signing bonus and kick a significant portion of that $20m to future seasons to free up room in 2023.
- Thielen: $11.8m base salary in '23 becomes fully guaranteed; I seriously doubt any team trades for him so the decision boils down to 3 options: 1) outright release (players can be released starting on 2/13) with no designation, or 2) release with post 6/1 designation (frees up more cap room, but only after 6/1) or 3) pay cut. I think 1) or 2) are the most likely outcomes and Thielen might decide to retire, too, which could make this a non-decision.
- O'Neill: $14.5m of 2023 base salary becomes fully guaranteed on 3/18; he'll be on 2023+ roster, but it's possible the front office taps into O'Neill's contract to push cap dollars to future seasons to free up room for 2023 free agents. Personally, I would leave O'Neill's contract "as-is" for 2023 and see how his 2023 season plays out after his injury at the end of 2022.
- Z Smith: $5.1m of 2023 base salary becomes fully guaranteed near start of league year. Z Smith also has a $3m roster bonus in '23 that can be converted to a signing bonus to kick "some" cap dollars to future seasons. The Vikings could also release Z Smith with relatively little dead cap ($3.3m) and save $12.3m in '23 cap dollars. I think this decision depends on the defensive coaching staff decision; if we stay in a 3-4 "Fangio Shell" style defense (regardless of who the Defensive Coodinator is), then it's likely Z Smith stays and we possibly tap into his contract to kick cap dollars to future seasons. If a new defensive coaching staff wants the Vikings to go to back to a 4-3, it's possible Z Smith is released.
- Cook: $2m of 2023 base salary becomes guaranteed on 3/17. I still standby the notion that Kwesi goes into the Winter Meetings (aka, Combine week, which is 2/28 - 3/6) to see if there are any takers on a possible Cook trade. It's possible a contending team takes on Cook and restructures his contract to lower his '23 cap hit for a Day 3 draft pick. If there are no takers, then an outright release is on the table because I seriously doubt he takes a pay cut and there is no way I tap into his contract to push any cap dollars to future seasons.
- H Smith: $1.5m of 2023 base salary becomes guaranteed on 3/18. If released pre-6/1, Vikes could save $7.4m in '23 cap dollars, but carry an $11.7m dead cap hit. If they designate him a post 6/1 release, the Vikings save $15.2m and only carry a $3.9m dead cap hit, but they don't get that get savings until 6/1 which is after a majority of free agents will have signed. The big problem here is that you didn't see enough of Cine in '22 to see if he can possibly take over and although Metellus is decent depth, he's probably not ready for starting snaps - Bynum certainly proved he's not. One thing is for sure: the Viking's can't keep Harry on the books for a $19.2m cap hit in '23 - his play is still decent, but it's not worth that much and you certainly don't want to tap into his contract to push his '23 cap dollars to future seasons. It's possible H Smith is a target for a 2023 reduction/void like the Vikes did with Anthony Barr in 2021 - it would reduce his 2023 cap hit down to where his play is but would cost the Vikings some dead cap in 2024. It's either that or he's outright released and we "eat" $11.7m (pre-6/1) or $3.9m (post-6/1) in '23 dead cap.
- Hicks: $1.5m of 2023 base salary becomes guaranteed on 3/18. If released, the Vikings save $5.0m on the '23 cap vs a $1.5m dead cap hit - it's an easy decison, IMO.
4. Other significant player decisions - these players don't have roster bonuses due, but they are either significant players on the Vikings roster or they have significant 2023 cap dollars that require a decison how much to invest before free agency starts.
- Hunter: his contract was setup last season to extend him this offseason; it would cost the Vikings $18m in '23 cap to release/trade him so the haul in any trade would need to include a significant return in the '23 Draft or significant players back to recoup. If I'm Kwesi, I go into the Winter Meetings to see what sort of return I could get for a Hunter trade; while the $18m dead cap hit in '23 is significant if traded, if you get enough back in players/'23 Draft capital, then you consider it. If not, then you need to talk extension. Some fans might say that Hunter is better suited to a 4-3 defense so they'd wait and see what happens with the Defensive coaching staff before any decision is made on Hunter, but he proved he's enough of a good player that he's effective in either a 3-4 or 4-3, so I'm not sure it the defensive coaching staff matters too much. One factor that comes into play is if Hunter actually wants to be here: he has made it known he wants to get paid and he will want his extension after he proved he can still play at a high level after two injury-riddled seasons. While Hunter is certainly good, I honestly don't think he's worth "elite" level cap dollars so if he wants to be paid Top 3 EDGE dollars, I probably trade him. Yeah, that leaves us with an aging Z Smith and not much else behind him who can start (that's the price of not drafting Drake Jackson in Rd 2 in 2022), but you also can't saddle this team with an "elite" cap investment to a players who's certainly good, but not quite among the league's elite - you're going to end up in another bad contract in a few seasons.
- Tomlinson: contract voids on 2/23 so they'll need to decide whether they want to extend him or not - if the Vikings move on, they will carry a $7.5m dead cap hit in '23. He's the most disruptive DT they currently have so there's a reason to extend, but if he wants $10m+ a year, is that worth it? If they could structure the extension to lessen the '23 cap from $7.5m down to something lower while having it be flexible like Z Smith's, then it's probably worth it. If he wants really big guaranteed money that would cause difficulties to release him should his play rapidly decline in the next 2-3 yrs, then I probably walk away.
- Hockenson: 5th yr option cost of $9.3m in 2023 and is probably due an extension. I don't think it needs to get done immediately and it's possible they wait until they have more cap flexibility if they designate players like Thielen/H Smith as post-6/1 release designations.
- Kendricks: $11.4m 2023 cap hit and Vikings could save $9.5m if released with a $1.9m dead cap hit. Seems like an easy decison to me.
- Ham: $3.8m 2023 cap hit and Vikings could save $3.1m if released with a $0.8m dead cap hit. Seems like an easy decision to me.
5. Decisions on Viking UFA - the following players are UFA in 2023 and the Vikings will need to decide if they want to retain any before they hit the open market on 3/13: Patrick Peterson (CB1), Garrett Bradbury (OC1), Greg Joseph (K1), Irv Smith (TE2), Chandon Sullivan (NCB1), Duke Shelley (CB2/3), Nick Mullens (QB2), Jonathan Bullard (DE4), Austin Schlottman (OC2), Alexander Mattison (RB2), Andrew DePaola (LS1), Oli Udoh (RT2), Kris Boyd (CB5/6), Bisi Johnson. The biggest decisions are the players with the "1" in parentheses because they are starters that will definitely need to be replaced in free agency and/or the 2023 Draft if they aren't retained. Everyone else is a depth player that won't cost too much to replace (either through Tier 2/3 free agent signings), the 2023 Draft or through depth players already on roster.
Tasks post 3/13
1. 5th yr Options Decisions on 2020 1st Rd players - the Vikings will need to decide by 5/1 if the want to exercise 5th yr options on Jefferson and Reagor, which is an easy decision.
2. Extension Decisions on 2020 Drafted Players - they can then start talking about extensions to players who are eligible (Jefferson, Ezra, Dantzler, Lynch, Wonnum, Osborn & Metellus). The two obvious ones are Jefferson and Ezra with Osborn deserving a bit of consideration, but that might depend what the Vikings do in '23 free agency and '23 Draft.
3. 2023 Draft Prep - this has already started as the Scouting Dept does this year-round and I'm sure Kwesi and others are involved during the January All-Star game circuit and Combine, but Pro Days start on 3/7, which is also the first day teams can commence with Top 30 visits. The "heavy lifting" for the Draft prep is probably done after the initial rush if Tier 1/Tier 2 of free agency in mid-March. The 2023 Draft is on 4/27 - 4/29.
... and neither is this Chris guy.