2023 Roster Changes - Who Stays and Who Goes?

DT, Dalvin Tomlinson

Why he could stay:

The case to keep Tomlinson is pretty straightforward: He’s a good player.

The Vikings’ big man in the middle has been one of the most consistent players at his position in the NFL. Since entering the league in 2017, he has graded by PFF in the top 20 starting DTs every single season and has played between 588 and 641 snaps each year. One noticeable trend in his play over the last three years is that he’s made an impact in creating pressure on opposing QBs. While he’ll never be a sack artist like Aaron Donald or Quinnen Williams, Tomlinson registered the 11th highest PFF pass rush grade and ranked 11th in pass rush win rate.

It’s also favorable for the Vikings’ salary cap to extend him. While he will be expensive, a new deal would allow them to spread out his $7.5 million in dead money that will hit the cap (via void years) this year if he does not re-sign in Minnesota.

Why he could go:

Money, for starters. If the Vikings want to spread out his cap hit, they have to convince him to sign before testing the free agent market because the dead cap hit kicks in at the beginning of the league year. That would require Tomlinson to forego potential opportunities on the open market where he may receive bigger offers from teams with greater cap flexibility. Teams with cap space that are looking to bounce back from down years routinely overspend on solid players like Tomlinson.

Aside from the potential price tag, his fit in new defensive coordinator Brain Flores’s system is unknown and the value of a player who can’t create sacks might not be seen as worth spending the dollars to GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah.

PFF Projected contract: Three years, $35.25 million

Verdict: He is more likely to leave in free agency.

While the Vikings’ struggling defense can’t really afford to see major players walk, it does not seem very likely that they will be able to match Tomlinson’s asking price.

CB, Patrick Peterson

Why he could stay:

Minnesota has been kind to the future Hall of Famer. Not only has he received a lot more love from the organization than he saw in his final years in Arizona, he’s also played some of his best football and proven that rumors of his demise were premature. Last season was his highest graded by PFF since 2018. He finished sixth overall among all cornerbacks and allowed just 43 receptions into his coverage all year and a 66.8 QB rating on throws in his direction, sixth best in the NFL.

With plenty left in the tank and questions about the rest of the cornerback group, particularly 2022 draft picks Andrew Booth Jr. and Akayleb Evans, the Vikings could find themselves in need of Peterson’s performance and presence in the locker room.

Why he could go:

Some players on the Vikings’ defense could make the argument that they weren’t used correctly in Ed Donatell’s scheme. Patrick Peterson is not one of them. He was a perfect fit for a zone-heavy system that allowed him to play with intelligence and instincts. Per PFF, Peterson only played man-to-man coverage on 16.7% of snaps, sixth lowest among starting corners. In 2021, both Miami corners under Flores were in man coverage nearly 50% of snaps.

Peterson may also look to championship chase. Not that it’s impossible for the Vikings to compete in the NFC as we saw in 2022 but DraftKings presently has Minnesota as +4500 to win the 2024 Super Bowl, the 19th best odds.

PFF Projected contract: One year, $5 million

Verdict: Peterson will look for a new home

Signing Peterson was a massive success but he should aim for a better fit in 2023.

C, Garrett Bradbury

Why he could stay:

Early in training camp it wasn’t clear whether Bradbury would even start the season as the opening day center because he was benched in 2021 and did not have a strong beginning to camp. When the regular season came around, however, he played the best football of his career. Whether it was development or a better fit in Kevin O’Connell’s passing game, Bradbury posted vastly better numbers than at any other point in his four seasons. He graded as PFF’s 10th best center overall and 14th in pass blocking — a huge jump from dead last in 2021.

PFF only rates two centers in free agency as being better than Bradbury and there are only a handful of free agents with even a decent track record as starters. The Vikings can’t afford to spend a high draft pick on a replacement and do not have one coming down the pipeline either. Bradbury is a likeable leader who may be hitting his peak years after a rocky road to becoming a solid player.

Why he could go:

Center may not be the highest paid position in the NFL but that doesn’t mean Bradbury will come cheap. Investing top dollar in a player who has only one strong season under his belt and a recent back injury that hindered him during the second half of the season may be too risky for a team that can’t afford to blunder a free agent decision. While there aren’t a bevy of free agent centers, there are lots of recent examples of teams finding them on the relative cheap. Former Viking backup Mason Cole cost Pittsburgh just $2.5 million on the cap last year and graded 12th by PFF.

PFF Projected contract: Three years, $18.75 million

Verdict: The Vikings attempt to keep Bradbury

Only the team knows their veteran center’s medical situation so that could influence whether they offer him an extension but assuming he’s healthy the Vikings might not want to sacrifice anything from an offense that will need to drive their success going forward.

RB, Alex Mattison

Why he could stay:

If the Vikings plan to move on from Dalvin Cook, there is some sense in paying Mattison to pair with 2022 draft pick Ty Chandler in the backfield. While he hasn’t been used much, Mattison has graded above 80 (out of 100) by PFF in rushing grade in two of the last three seasons and he registered nine runs of 10-plus yards in only 74 carries. He certainly doesn’t have much wear and tear and turns just 25 this year.

Why he could go:

Mattison has spent a lot of time on the sideline despite proving capable of playing in the NFL. He might not get offers to be RB1 for another team but he could aim for a tandem situation where he’ll see the field more than any point with the Vikings over the last four years. And while his price tag won’t be in the ballpark of top runners, situational backs can still make between $3 and $6 million.

Verdict: Mattison finds a new home

In almost any scenario except Mattison being given the RB1 job in Minnesota it makes more sense for him to look for a place where he can compete for a more significant role.

TE, Irv Smith Jr.

Why he could stay:

This one is a tough case to make. The only situation where Smith Jr. would agree to play TE2 to TJ Hockenson would be if he couldn’t find any other interest on the free agent market because of his recent injury history but teams are normally willing to take a flier on a tight end who has washed out with the team that drafted him.

Why he could go:

When the Vikings acquired Hockenson, it was clear that there was no place for Smith Jr. going forward. After the former Detroit tight end proved to be an instant star in Minnesota and Adofo-Mensah hinted toward interest in a long-term extension, there was no doubt left that he would be TE1 for the foreseeable future. Particularly on a team that only plays one tight end in its offense, there is no space for another receiving specialist like Smith Jr. His career in Minnesota goes down with several big what-ifs regarding his health.

Verdict: Smith Jr. gets a short-term deal elsewhere

If he doesn’t have any more significant injuries, Smith Jr. might find a home and become the player he was touted to be but it won’t be happening in Minnesota.

@forehandfed If your professional career was on the line to be perfect-Thielen and Harrison. Do they cut, restructure, or ask for pay cut ? Of course different outcome ok for each. Really fascinating what will happen with these 2

Based on recent history, restructures for both players seem like the most likely outcome, so I suppose I’d pick that option if I had to bet my career on it. But if one of them is going to go, it’s probably Thielen. O’Connell layered in a comment about players’ roles when he was asked about Thielen and the receiver room at the Combine and I keep wondering if he would prefer to find a team that was going to feature him more. This offense belongs to JJ and that isn’t changing. With Smith, if I’m Brian Flores, that’s a dude I want to keep around.

Last offseason, the Vikings declined Bradbury's fifth-year option for 2023. After seeing what their lineup looked like without Bradbury over their last five regular-season games of 2022, they might want to reconsider his value to the team. During that stretch, when Bradbury was absent with a back injury, opposing defensive tackles terrorized Minnesota. It began with the Lions' Isaiah Buggs setting a career high with five pressures in Week 14, and it only got worse from there. In three consecutive games, a pair of defensive tackles combined for double-digit pressures against Minnesota: the Colts' DeForest Buckner (nine) and Grover Stewart (five) in Week 15; the Giants' Dexter Lawrence (seven) and Leonard Williams (five) in Week 16; and the Packers' Kenny Clark (seven) and Jarran Reed (four) in Week 17.

The three-time All Pro and eight-time Pro Bowler may have lost a step or two of his elite speed, but he remains adept at erasing receivers when given the chance. Peterson was targeted on just nine of his 111 man-coverage snaps in 2022 (8.1%). He was the only outside cornerback with at least 100 man-coverage snaps to be targeted at less than a 12 percent rate. Last season under Ed Donatell, the Vikings played man coverage on just 20.8 percent of dropbacks, the fourth-lowest rate in the league. But Minnesota will likely undergo a complete philosophical makeover under new coordinator Brian Flores, whose defenses have ranked in the top four of man-coverage rate in each of the last five seasons.