2023 Roster Changes - Who Stays and Who Goes?

1. Garrett Bradbury, C
Age (in fall of 2023): 28
On locker room cleanout day at the end of the season, Bradbury made no bones about how much he adores Minnesota’s offensive line room. The former first-round pick developed relationships over the years with elite tackles like Brian O’Neill and Christian Darrisaw. He also improved each year, allowing fewer pressures per snap in 2022 than any other season in his career, per Pro Football Focus. That improvement, however, still placed him 28th out of 32 centers in blocking efficiency, which explains the complexity of this decision: Should the Vikings commit to Bradbury for multiple years (let’s say four) with an average annual value that ranks in the top 10 at the position (let’s say $10 million)? And if they don’t, what other options do they have? This is one of the more interesting decisions of the offseason.

2. Dalvin Tomlinson, DT
Age: 29
Though Tomlinson is not a game-wrecker on the level of Dexter Lawrence, Chris Jones or even D.J. Reader, he is reliable and at times impactful both in defending the run and rushing the passer. A calf injury sidelined him for four weeks in the middle of the 2022 season. Still, he tallied a career-high 29 quarterback pressures. Though the Vikings would benefit from drafting an interior presence, how much confidence would the team have in a rookie who needed to fill a pass-rushing void in the middle? That’s why, if the money allows, it would make sense to see the Vikings spend around $7 million to $9 million for a few years to keep Tomlinson around.

3. Patrick Peterson, CB
Age: 33
Peterson was unequivocally Minnesota’s most reliable cornerback last season. Many of his elite characteristics — locker room leadership, on-field smarts, mentorship of youngsters — will carry over. It’s just a matter of how badly he wants to continue to wear purple and how much the Vikings will be willing to pay to make that happen. A one-year, $3.5 million guaranteed deal like the one he signed last season seems doable. A guaranteed starting spot could also pique Peterson’s interest. Though double moves from receivers gave him trouble, Peterson’s experience may allow him to continue to excel. It would not be a surprise to see him return.

4. Alexander Mattison, RB
Age: 25
Assessing Mattison’s situation is impossible without first seeing what the Vikings do with Dalvin Cook. The longtime starter has a hefty cap hit for 2023. His trade or release could save considerable money for a team needing to find ways to save in 2023. His return would not only dictate how much money the Vikings could allocate to Mattison, but it could also lead to Mattison looking elsewhere for a starting opportunity. If Minnesota parts with Cook, Mattison makes a lot of sense as a respected locker room voice who knows the playbook and has shown flashes. He could be a perfect match for a few years (three?) and a doable amount of total contract value ($12 million?).

5. Irv Smith Jr., TE
Age: 25
When the Vikings traded for T.J. Hockenson, Smith’s future seemed clear. The Vikings do not have much cap room this offseason. Smith also assuredly wants to be a premier receiving option, so his departure would make sense. There’s an argument to be made for keeping two tight ends capable of running a complex route tree and blocking in the run game. And Smith is well-liked within the building. It’s just that Minnesota is going to have to make decisions somewhere, and this split may be one of them.

6. Nick Mullens, QB
Age: 28
The Vikings acquired Mullens before last season for a reason. The team knew his experience, temperament and football knowledge would add to coach Kevin O’Connell’s first QB room. It’s become quite easy to take Kirk Cousins’ consistent availability for granted, but having a guy like Mullens behind him makes loads of sense — even if the Vikings choose to draft a youngster to begin a succession-type plan for Cousins after this season or next.

7. Duke Shelley, CB
Age: 26
I’ve written a lot already this offseason about the Vikings’ inexperienced and unreliable cornerbacks. Shelley may be 5-foot-9. Outside of Minnesota, he may not be the biggest name. But he proved down the stretch that he can remain afloat against solid competition, which is good enough as the Vikings attempt to integrate youngsters Andrew Booth Jr. and Akayleb Evans (as well as whomever they add in the draft).

8. Khyiris Tonga, DT
Age: 27
Tonga may have been the Vikings’ most underrated addition of the season. Minnesota scooped him up off the Falcons’ practice squad, and all he did after that was clog gaps in the run game. He’s a stout physical presence who allowed the Vikings to keep six men in the box and five in coverage. Whomever the Vikings hire as their new defensive coordinator could alter what the team looks for in a defensive tackle, but the familiarity with Tonga and ability to sign him for a sensible amount makes him an obvious choice.

9. Kris Boyd, CB
Age: 26
Impactful special-teamers are essential to a team’s success, and Boyd is certainly one of them. Local agent Blake Baratz also represents him, which should give the Vikings an advantage. That Boyd was drafted by Minnesota is yet another reason the team could sign him for a reasonable price.

10. Chandon Sullivan, CB
Age: 27
According to PFF, 15 cornerbacks played more than 290 snaps in the slot in 2022. Among them, none allowed more catches or yards than Sullivan. He has experience and familiarity with the locker room, but there aren’t many other reasons for Minnesota to run it back with Sullivan. Regardless of whether the Vikings draft a slot cornerback, sign another free agent to fill the role or use someone like Josh Metellus to man the spot, Minnesota will likely be better off from a performance standpoint without Sullivan.

Jeff in Tokyo … Given the Flores hiring (yeah) for which veterans does this speed the cut / trade decision and who does it help (in terms of staying on the team)?

I don’t think Patrick Peterson is a very good fit for a defense that demands tons of man coverage so I’d be surprised if he returned. For the others, Flores is probably a better fit with his system than Donatell. Even if he’s not as quick as he used to be, Eric Kendricks has always been a good man coverage linebacker and surprisingly effective blitzer by the numbers. Harrison Smith could benefit the most because Flores is so much more aggressive with his safeties in the box. Things wouldn’t be much different for Za’Darius Smith and Danielle Hunter. It’s one reason to think that a complete overhaul isn’t all that likely. They might believe Donatell misused guys so badly that running it back with a different scheme will be better.

flokubes.. Matthew I have a question I hope you can either answer or research. Since KAM and KOC arrived and brought their staffs in has there been any staff changes in the scouting or pro personnel departments? Talent acquisition is everything and with four draft picks, so far, KAM really kinda needs to hit on all of them. Tall order to be sure. So, who does KAM and KOC trust to give them the information they need to do their analytical alchemy on? Thank you.

They added some people last year when they arrived. One that was notable was former 49ers manager of football research and development Demitrius Washington as their vice president of football operations. I get questions pretty often about the scouts and I really don’t know what to say about it. The scouts look at hundreds of players and the team picks 10 in the draft. That’s why it can be so random from year to year. The whole staff looks at the draft, too. The position coaches analyze the players, Kwesi watches tape on these guys. So it’s a complete org effort if they succeed or fail, I don’t think we can say with any degree of certainty how much the scouts are making an impact. If they didn’t think they could do their jobs last year, they would have made bigger changes.

@kyleshaner Will Kwesi ever get an opportunity to fully build the Vikings the way he wants or has ownership’s desires and the team’s 2022 success forced him to alter his approach?

It’s hard to say. The “competitive rebuild” thing never sounded like “it’s my team now, baby!” It might depend on what happens in 2023. If they come apart and win six or seven games, then I think we’ll see a big overhaul, starting with a quarterback change. But coming off the season they just had, it’s probably going to be a difficult sell to tear it all down, even if that’s what he thinks is right (which we don’t know).

@samroot43 How does the Flores hiring effect your thinking of which FA/cut/trade candidates from the '22 defense will be back? I understand he likes a lot of cover1/0 with blitzes and pressure packages. Gotta think Harrison Smith fits that philosophy better than so much 1/4s and cover6

It definitely points more toward a return for Harry. His contract isn’t easy to move anyway. I’m not sure about Kendricks. The draft is an interesting discussion here too. You could make the case that cornerback shoots to the top of the list of needs and I’d agree but they do have three guys who are young and have skill sets that point toward playing more man coverage. Maybe they’d look more toward interior pass rush. I’ve gotta think he wants that after coaching Christian Wilkins and Cam Heyward the last two years.

@sevenstoreysta1 Could any of the corners work well from the slot. Duke Shelley(if resigned), Akalyeb Evans or Cam Dantzler, then we could draft a shut down outside corner and don’t need to worry about losing Chandon Sullivan.

Shelley maybe. He fits the bill as an undersized guy who’s very aggressive. Definitely not the others. Their best skills are at mirroring receivers. That’s not really what a nickel corner does very often. It’s a totally different position. More likely they’ll need to go to the free agent market to get a nickel corner.

@dmoney0919 My understanding from OTC is we can save just over 7.1m with a restructure of Thielen’s contract. I’m sure if you’re Thielen’s agent, you say time to move on to a closer SB contender. But, if you’re a consultant to the Vikings, what’s your advice to them here?

I don’t see Thielen on an $11 million cap hit as the worst thing in the world but only if they’re going to make a legitimate effort to find another receiver. Last year’s Albert Wilson signing and a sixth-round pick is not a legitimate effort and we could see that the time was coming where Thielen wasn’t the 1B that he used to be. Sticking around would also have to be contingent on Adam understanding his role. If the social media stuff is right and he wants to get more target share, it’s time to move on.

@big_dannn CB will be a hot topic this summer..so I ask what’s the priority list this off-season DEF. wise? Is it Interior pass Rush (hoping to find your C. Wilkins in the draft or FA) or is it a 1st round CB in already young DB group? Or is it other?

It’s everything. There isn’t a position that’s completely set, not even pass rusher when you consider the Hunter contract situation and Za’Darius age/injury history/contract. I really like the interior rusher idea. They are so hard to find and so freaking effective when they are good (see: Eagles, Chiefs). It would start with a decision long term on Hunter and then go from there. But really, they just need more good players. Right now it’s not a pretty sight.

@dkall2 What do you think Kirk's value would be on the open market?

If they threw his name out there today, someone is likely to give them a second-round pick. I’m not sure if they get a first because there are other QBs out there who are similar like Derek Carr, Jimmy G and maybe Rodgers. He’s definitely more valuable than Wentz or Ryan were last year but he’s also expensive and in need of a long-term deal, which would hurt his value.

@edvoll Not enough is made about the talent kirk has been surrounded with, 3 pro bowl receivers, 2 pro bowl tight ends, 2 pro bowl tackles, dalvin cook and yet the discourse is that he isn’t adequately supported, why is this? Why do fans make excuses for him?

If you Twitter search almost any quarterback, you’ll find fans defending them. Bears fans think Justin Fields is the next great QB — unless they trade Fields, then he’s trash. That’s just how it goes. When we’re talking about guard problems as the biggest issue over five years, I’d say he’s had more than adequate (if not top notch) supporting casts and he’s done about what you’d expect from a good quarterback with it. Someone said back in 2018 when the Vikings got him that Kirk is an exact reflection of your team strength and I’d agree with that. Usually for the price tag, you want a little more than that.

@daddy4547 Being a fan of this team for a very long time why do they put themselves always in a bad position with cap and always having a bad line on either side of the ball. Even the great Mahomes needed a better line to get back to were there at what is wrong with this team?#skolnation

Well, I would say that Mahomes helps his line quite a bit with his quick game and scrambling and he’s reached the AFC Championship every year with tons of different line combinations. But, to your point, they haven’t always put themselves in a bad position with the cap as it pertains to spending on the rest of the roster. In 2015 they had the third most expensive offensive line, 10th most expensive group of receivers and most expensive running back (per OTC) but spent the sixth least on quarterback. If you keep an expensive QB, you can’t spend elsewhere unless you hit on a ton of draft picks. But also they have a lot nostalgia for guys who have been around a while and they’ve paid out the nose for it. One of Belichick’s old tricks was knowing when he could replace someone. They seem to think these guys are irreplaceable until they’ve completely fallen off.