Purple Path Forward – Giants Wildcard Game

[Googles "Giant"]: Hill giants are selfish, dimwitted brutes that hunt and raid in constant search of food. Their skins are tan from lives spent beneath the sun, and their weapons are uprooted trees and rocks pulled from the earth.


I'm not sure if that link is the right kind of Giant...  Let me look up their coach...


....  that's close enough for me...  

Rather than a team breakdown for the Vikings matchup against the Giants, I’m looking at advantages and threats in this game. After the Vikings blew out the Giants by 3 points on Christmas Eve, I wanted to see what was left on the table. I’m going to go through a list of things that I think are most relevant to the Vikings chances on Sunday. If there were stats or plays from the first game I will try decide if things from that game were trends or mirages. And what is really an advantage for the Vikings in the rematch.

Jefferson vs Giants Secondary
The Giants lack a shutdown corner to go 1:1 against Jefferson, that was a weakness Jefferson exploited and there is no reason to think that was a fluke. Jefferson’s stat line for the first game: 12/133/1TD. Is that repeatable? If anything the Vikings left yardage on the field with plays like this:



The play is there for a big gain to Jefferson, Cousins was not pressured and just missed the throw.  

The biggest question is that the Giants #1 Corner, Adoree Jackson didn’t play in the first game. The staff the Giants rolled out at corner in the first game simply wasn’t good enough to cover the Vikings receivers. Would that change if Jackson plays? The Giants pass defense went from allowing 211 yards with Jackson to 217without him, not a huge change. I was looking for matchups to use as a measuring stick, but the Giants played relatively few teams with good receiving groups with Jackson in the lineup; the two best WR group Jackson faced where the Cowboys and Seahawks. CeeDee Lamb, Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf all had touchdowns and the Giants lost both games.
Conclusion: even with Adoree Jackson, Jefferson should be an advantage and the Giants struggle against teams with good pass catchers.

Giants Weakness vs Tight Ends
Hockenson’s stat line for the first game: 13/109/2 TDs Is that repeatable?
The only reason it’s not repeatable is if Irv Smith Jr takes some of Hockenson’s target share. The Giants have been consistently beaten by good tight ends.
Mark Andrews: 7/106/1 TD
Dalton Schultz: 4/31/2 TDs
Dallas Goedert: 6/46 (as a distant 3rd option in the Eagles receiving game)

Giants linebackers Micha McFadden and Jaylon Smith are both bad in coverage. Hockenson at Tight End was already an advantage for the Vikings; if Irv Smith contributes more speed than Johnny Mundt (he does), this should only amplify that advantage. Even if Hockenson’s stat line isn’t repeatable, the advantage is defiantly there.

Giants Pressure without Brian O’Niell
The Giants Blitz. A lot. The Giants have, by far, the highest blitz rate in the NFL. So will this be a problem with Brian O’Niell out? Probably a better question is: How much of a problem will this be with O’Niell out? First a look at the results of the Giants blitzes, they blitz a lot, but it doesn’t result in proportionately higher pressure.



However, blitzing did cause problems for the Vikings in the first game. On this play, Cook was open, but the safety blitz got to Cousins while he was executing play action and Cousins just got the ball out to the first guy he saw.





Cook had a ton of space if Cousins was ready for this.  Overall, I would only give the Vikings a B- on beating the blitz in the first game.  Cousins didn't get killed, but they didn't really make the Giants pay.  

The Vikings did counter some, this formation was interesting, I thought we would see more of this this season: CJ Ham playing tight end. This was another blitz, that is picked up this time and Ham converts the first down on a reception.



The Above play highlights how I think the Vikings did counter the pressure and can again. Ham, Cook and Mattison are all excellent at blitz pickup, and all three are capable receivers. If right tackle is out against a blitz heavy team, it is also a timely luxury to get a second tight end; Irv Smith Jr isn’t on the level of TJ Hockenson, but he’s better than Johnny Mundt.

Finally, I will point out the following things are true:
- Oli Udoh was drafted as a tackle
- Oli Udoh started his first game at right tackle
- Oli Udoh stunk at right guard
- Playing Tackle and playing guard are different things
I won’t say this adds up to Udoh being a good right tackle, but I’m also not going to hold much of 2021 against him for this game.  The Giants didn't get a lot of pressure by beating the offensive line 1:1, they get it with Blitzes; that means the pressure is as much on the right ends and backs to pick it up as it is the O-Line.

Vikings Run Game
There is upside for the Vikings in the category. The big games by Hockenson and Jefferson distracted from the fact that the Giants are one of the worst teams in the league for run defense in terms of both total and yards per carry. It may have distracted Kevin O’Connell too because there were a few situations where the Vikings just kept throwing. Including deep shots on 3rd and 2 (the above missed play to Jefferson) and one of the dumber plays of the season, a deep shot on 4th and 1 against a terrible run defense.

Overall, there is upside for the Vikings run game to do more in a rematch. The Vikings had the lowest rush yardage total out of any opponent the Giants faced this year. The Vikings should absolutely look to feed Cook and Mattison more, however play-action and bootlegs worked great in the first game so there is no need to force it.
Additionally, I think the run game is a way to keep set things up for Oli Udoh. He’s a mauler, let him maul.


Pressure the Giants Passing Game
The Vikings most significant weakness on defense is getting beat on medium to deep throws; the Giants do not have the receivers or quarterback to effectively exploit that weakness with a very low air-yards per pass this season. This game, the Vikings brought a lot more pressure and overall I think it worked; I didn’t find a lot of situations where pressure bit the Vikings. Taking things further, the Vikings were beat when they just waited in their zone. This play is one of the most frustrating:



Hicks isn’t doing any good patrolling the field while Darious Slayton runs across the field in front of him for a 32 yard gain. This play almost cost the Vikings the game as it sprung the Giants final TD Drive. However there was one good thing: Kendricks shadowing Barkley as a receiver.

Between Kendricks and Hicks, I’d be happy if one shadows Barkley and one chases Daniel Jones on almost every play.

Saquon Barkley Impact
A Giants strength is Saquon Barkley running the ball. Strong running games haven’t hurt the Vikings this year; the Vikings are 5-0 when an opponent runs for 5+ yards per carry. Barkley is also good at catching the ball out of the backfield. There is a silver lining though Barkley has an average yards before catch of -1.7; the Vikings weakens is RBs on crossing and wheel routes when Hicks has to chase the RB. Barkley had his most prolific receiving game of the season against the Vikings: 49 receiving yards. However, his total came on volume, and his yards per catch was a relatively modest 6.1.
The play below is one that will decide the game.



2 yard gain?  Vikings win
11 yard gain?  Giants win
5-8 yard gain?  Try again

A potential advantage in the Wild card will be Dantzler coming back; Dantzler is a better run stopper than cover corner and the above play is the sort of play Dantzler is good at stopping.

Any Turnovers?
The Vikings got multiple turnovers off the Giants; that is a risk for regression versus the first game. The Giants rarely turn the ball over with Daniel Jones being particularly careful with the ball. It’s hard to predict turnovers but important to know that the first game was a bit of an outlier for the Giants.

Daniel Jones hasn’t been a deep ball thrower this year, the Vikings played off and tempted him into deeper throws; that did result in Peterson’s interception, so I could make an argument that the Vikings forced the turnovers, but they are still difficult to plan for.

Opportunities for the Vikings
If anything, Jefferson left something on the table in the first game.
The return of Irv Smith Jr is timely as tight end is one of the best positions to help the Vikings deal with blitzes and the Giants struggle to stop tight ends.
The Vikings run game has way more upside than it showed in week 16.
Little downside to aggressive blitzing on defense.
Some more upside to beating the Giants blitz with quick throws.
There are no rocks and trees in US Bank Stadium for them to use as weapons.

Risk for the Vikings
Giants can improve their chances by avoiding turnovers like they normally did
Saquon Barkley could improve his efficiency on catching passes
Brian O’Niell to Oli Udoh will be a downgrade in protection