Team Cap Space and Draft Capital

How much do you consider a lot different?  Is 8 core guys a lot different?  Based on how contracts are structured, I'd say rank players most to least likely to leave.  I added a highly scientific % chance this player returns in 2021

Almost Certainly Gone
Jordan Hicks (2%) - high cap savings, significantly increased cost over 2022, poor contributor.
Alexander Mattison (7%) - Free agent, likely not worth the price
Chandon Sullivan (10%) - Free agent maybe, outside chance he comes back depending on price and things I don't know inside the locker room

Likely Gone
Eric Kendricks (20%) - Very high cap savings, minimal dead cap, contract seems to be designed to let him go this year
CJ Ham (20%) - $3M savings isn't much, but what was his contribution worth?  I like him, but this looks a lot like an Armon Watts return on investment decision
Irv Smith Jr (33%) - Free agent difficult to read; some comments suggest that O'Connell likes two TEs.  This accounts for the possibility that the Vikings move to a 2TE scheme, which isn't that wild, considering Johnny Mundt played nearly 40% of the team's snaps.

Could go either way
Adam Thielen (35%) - Contract seems designed to make him a post June 1 release designation with $13M in cap savings but puts $7M dead money into 2024.
Harrison Smith (40%)- Same general situation as Thielen, a post June 1 release saves $15M, but being signed through 2023 put $7.8M dead money into 2024.  Stronger contribution that Thielen, but made somewhat replaceable by Metellus' play.
Garrett Bradburry (50%) - Positional scarcity and O line consistency, probably comes down to price and coaching opinion.
Patrick Peterson (51%) - Free agent, indicates he wants to be back, negotiation over price.  
Dalvin Cook (55%) - Not as much savings as Kendricks, Thielen or Smith and contributed more (1450 yards / 10TDs)

Likely back
Dalvin Tomlinson (60%) - I know he's a free agent, but extending him will gain the team $5M cap space as void year acceleration is avoided.   This is a solid reason to bring him back in addition to on field contribution
ZaDarius Smith - (70%) Really easy to get savings from cutting him, but he performed well.  Contract is also structure that they can gain about $4-7M in space if they want him here in 2024 as well.  Very flexible contract.
Danielle Hunter - (75%) the dead cap to cut or trade him is huge.  Because of the cap cost to trade him, the only way he is not back is a trade that bring in something like two 1st + two 2nd rounds picks. 

Almost Certainly Back
Kirk Cousins (93%) - Contract seems to be set up to add 2-3 more years. Not higher because his contract is structure to facilitate (even encourage) a trade this offseason.
Harrison Phillips (94%)
KJ Osborn (97%) - extension candidate, worst case they let him play out his rookie deal
Brian O'Niell (98%)
TJ Hockenson (99%)

Kicks are people too
Greg joseph (78.8%)

If I had to draw a line on my rankings, I'd put it between Harrison Smith and Bradburry.  For turnover my 8 guys are: Hicks, Mattison, Sullivan, Kendricks, Ham, I. Smith, Thielen, H. Smith.  

Thank you! You broke out and answered the question I asked about Tomlinson and free agency. IMO this defense was at its weakest when he was out and he's really needed. The void year savings essentially gives the Vikings motivation to pay him as much as anyone else would, or more.

Re Z. Smith, I could see this altered if the Vikings draft a strong Edge. Too soon to ask if anyone has determined our lowest possible draft position?

The void year incentive diminishes with a multi-year contract, since the Vikings can just structure his contract to push cap hits to future years anyway. 

You pretty much covered it in your last post. I can see 5 to 8 different core players gone from this 2022 roster.

The defense may need gutting, but not necessarily the older players. Here are the oldest starters:

Harrison Smith    33
Patrick Peterson    32
Eric Kendricks        30
Jordan Hicks        30
Zadarius Smith    30

I know Smith and/or Peterson might suddenly decline, but I don't think either was a cause of our defensive issues in 2022; Smith probably saved at least 2 games, Peterson maybe 2 others. Hicks I would agree about dumping, possibly Kendricks - although it might be fair to see if he improves with a second season in the 3-4. And Smith was very good when he was healthy. IMO the bigger problem was very mediocre play from Bynum, most of our CBs, and poor coaching.

Not sure of that. He tied his best career season for INTs, had 10 PDs, and the defense looked uninspired when he was out. But I will say this: he's going to fall off some time, and at his age it could be soon and steep. If it's in 2023, he absolutely won't be worth what he is paid.