Post by MidwinterViking on Jan 9, 2023 14:13:04 GMT -6
Yep, I pulled "Conference standings" instead of "playoff standings" because it was easier to flip years - thinking those would give me the same number.
If you can explain how "Big Ben threw 4 INTs two years ago, so the Giants should beat the Vikings next week" makes any sense at all, then I would take that that stat seriously.
However this post is better because you generalized it to a conclusion that there is general parity in the NFL between 3-6 seeds. Luckily, there is an easy way to test to see which point of view is real: being a 3 seed is bad or there is general parity between teams 3-6. If it's bad to be the #3 seed because wild card teams are good, you would expect to see a similar advantage to wild card teams in the 4/5 games because the 5 seed would be an even better team and the 4 an even weaker division winner. Since there is no unexpected win rate for wild card teams in 4/5 games (I think they were equal wins over that time period), you can conclude that you are correct that it is just normal parity in the NFL, and there is no disadvantage to the Vikings as the 3 seed.