Purple Path Forward - Week 17 Vikings in Cheeseland

Some people are very, very excited for this game. So we’re using rules for managing elementary school kids now. You know, the lies you tell little kids: “Of course I can comprehend that scribble you call writing”, “Yes, I am very interested in this story you are making up, I’m just closing my eyes to picture it better”, and of course the always necessary “That is a very good picture that I totally know what you were trying to draw.” So, “Way-to-go Packers and Packer fans! three wins in a row does qualify you as a good team in the NFL”.

Since the NFL world is apparently taking the Packers seriously now, here are my hypotheses on how they got there. I’ll use this post to go through each hypothesis and decide if it’s True or False and use that to determine what things has gone right for them that the Vikings need to counter.

1) They just played three garbage teams that beat themselves.
2) Aaron Rodgers is really, really good and it was only a matter of time before he got on track.
3) Arron Jones has gone modern beast mode and is carrying the team, compliments to AJ Dillon.
4) The defense has put things together and is carrying the team like it’s 2021.
5) Matt LaFleur lowered the play-call sheet from his face long enough for players to understand his genius.
6) They have done nothing right and this win streak is a total fluke and are due for a hard landing

1) They played three garbage teams
The Packers three wins came at Chicago, home versus the Rams and at Miami. I’m going to resist the urge to call the Bears and Rams sh*t teams just because they are and give each of these a close look:

Bears: the Bears held a 19-10 lead over the Packers going into the 4th quarter and blew a 19-17 lead with their final three drives going: missed field goal, interception, interception. The Bears were playing close, then followed that game up by playing the Eagles to a single score. They’re not a good team, but hadn’t thrown in the town as of that game.

Rams: Baker Mayfield rolled into Green Bay and threw for 111 yards. It’s hard to take that version of the Rams seriously… but they did put up a 50 burger on the Broncos, do I count that as a mitigating factor? No, the Broncos being worse doesn’t make the Rams not-bad. Also Aaron Donald missed the game.

Dolphins: Good team, maybe they had a bad game, but still a good team.

Hypothesis Answer: false. Only the Rams game was significantly one sided, but one cupcake does not a three game win streak make because scoring margin doesn’t carry over from game to game. The Bears aren’t great, but it’s a divisional game on the road. It’s one of the easier stretches on the Packer’s schedule, but the win stream counts.


2) Rodgers is back baby!
Packers scoring in Games 1-12: 19.6 ppg
Packers scoring in Games 13-15: 26.0 PP

Is Rodgers slinging it?
Rodgers’ Stats in Game 1-12: 64.9% Completion / 223 yards per game / 1.8 TDs per game
Rodgers’ Stats in Games 13-15: 64.6% Completions / 203 yards per game / 1.0 TDs per game

Nope, there is no uptick there. It’s even worse than it looks. Rodgers' best game against that easy stretch is 22/30 for 207 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT vs the Rams. He hasn’t topped 222 yards or 90 for a QB rating in any of the 3 games.

Hypothesis Answer: false. Rodgers is not suddenly good again.


3) It’s the Aaron Jones show (don’t forget AJ Dillon)
Maybe, the Packers rushing offense picked up from 121 per game (Games 1-12) to 131 per game (Games 13-15), mostly on the back of 175 yards against the Bears. However, that Bears game did feature a 46 yard run by Christian Watson. And even with that long run bolstering an yards per carry average in a small (3 game) sample, the Packers yards per carry is down from 4.80 to 4.26 in this winning streak. The biggest difference in the run game is that the Packers have increased from 25 carries per game up to over 30.
Hypothesis Answer: false. The Packers run game hasn’t gotten better, just more of the same.


4) The defense has gotten better
This is one I have to take seriously. Opponent scoring is down from 23 PPG to 17 PPG in the win streak. And in particular, the Packers have picked up their interception rate from 0.66 per game to 2.0 interceptions per game. I’ll look deeper at this.
Hypothesis Answer: true, pending play looks.


5) LaFleur is good-coaching
Working under the assumption that Aaron Rodgers hasn’t gotten any better and wasn’t playing well to start the season, it is logical to lean more on a run game this was working to the tune of 4.8 yards per carry. Throw in a decisive misdirection play (the above mentioned Watson 46 yard rush TD came under two minutes to play in a 1 point game), and LaFleur get some LaCredit.
Hypothesis Answer: true, the Vikings should prepare to face a prepared team.


6) It was all luck
This was only going to be true if nothing else showed improvement.

That means the answer is that the Packers are relying on turnover and grinding out the game. That could work in cold weather.

Packer Interception Review

What happened and can the Vikings avoid it. The Packers have 6 interceptions in their three game win streak after 8 interceptions in their first 12 games. Fascinatingly, all 6 of these interceptions have happened in the 4th quarter, so I guess the Packers are just copying the Vikings, but that’s not surprising, we knew they wanted to be us.

For each play:
Screen grab is taken right before the pass was thrown
Black = Intended Receiver
Red = Intercepting player and Interception Position
White = Open Option (if any)

Interception 1 off Justin Fields 2:48 left in the game
Extra context: Darnell Mooney had just been put on IR. Packers had just taken a one point lead on a field goal.



Equaminious St. Brown ran right past Jaire Alexander who just stepped in front of the throw. Alexander was watching this all the way and St. Brown didn’t even have much of a chance to play defense to catch the ball.


Interception 2 off Justin Fields 0:44 left in the game
Extra context: Bears trail by 9 after a Packer TD and 2 point conversion.



Fields’ first five passes on this drive had all been check downs (maybe a response to is previous screw up). Fields then had a huge pump fake right at the guy he was going to throw to and floated this one into double coverage. The receiver didn’t help out at all, just standing and watching instead of coming back to the ball, but this was a terrible read, terrible timing and terrible throw. If Justin Fields is reading this, plays like this are why nobody take you seriously as a passer.


Interception 3 off Baker Mayfield 12:09 left in the game
Extra context: Raises the question if baker Mayfield will start a game for more teams than Ryan Fitzpatrick’s 9.



Mayfield had Ben Skowronek there for the big play. Skowronek was creating space drifting to the sideline and Rasul Douglas was backpedaling at this point and would have had a difficult time catching up to an on target pass. If Mayfield put this ball out about 7 yards deeper, it could / should be a touchdown. But, Mayfield’s arm was hit as he threw, so the ball fell short. Lesson: don’t step up into Kenny Clark’s area of the field, seems pretty basic.


Interception 4 off Tua Tagovailoa 14:08 left in the game
Extra context: Game Tied at 20, Aaron Rodgers had just thrown an interception on the previous play (haha)



You call that window? This ball was completely air mailed over Tyreek Hill’s head, Hill jumped and put his arm up and the ball was still a full yard above his fingertips. All Jaire Alexander had to do was catch it. Also, what is the route combination that calls for two receivers to be surrounded by six defenders?  The RB at the bottom was blocking and never really made it into his route.  It is difficult for me to see how this play could work unless the Packers decided to cover part of the field where there were no Dolphins players.


Interception 5 off Tua Tagovailoa 6:09 left in the game
Extra context: Dolphins trail 23-20



I’ll give Da'Vondre Campbell credit for making a great read, break and catch. Tagovailoa threw the ball so quickly I couldn’t tell if anyone else would come open. I could question if the RB Mostert was open but a throw this quick could catch a defense off guard, but really, this is the first play of six examples that I credit to good coverage.


Interception 6 off Tua Tagovailoa 1:34 left in the game
Extra context: Dolphins trail 26-20



Where to credit the Packers: I think they fooled Tagovailoa.  The intercepting player looked to be sagging off Tyreek Hill into a zone in front of the tight end; he dropped right into the throwing lane. Tyreek Hill was wide open coming across the field, which is, I guess, some sort of a defensive strategy to allow that and hope the Dolphins forget about Hill.

Where to blame the Dolphins: even if Tua was fooled, this was a horrible throw. It’s possible Tagovailoa could have fit this in by the sideline, but the pass was going to be several yards behind the receiver, so I can't tell for sure. However it’s unforgivable to just ignore an open Tyreek Hill across the middle of the field with the game on the line.

How to Beat the Packers

The Packers offense isn’t playing better, they are just cobbling things together. A look at those six game changing interceptions suggests that the Packers defense is making a few things happen, but mostly capitalizing on miscues by the opponent’s offense. I think this game rides on Cousins being careful with the football in the 4th quarter.