QB Situations in 2023
Need an update with all of the crazy things going on in the NFL with QBs? Here's a quick tier list of how I perceive teams' need at the QB position in 2023. Note - this assumes that all free agent QBs will hit the market. They all won't, of course, but some will.
Colts - Matt Ryan and Nick Foles are cooked, and Sam Ehlinger didn't even look good enough to be a backup. They need to draft a QB.
Commies - Wentz is under contract for $26M and then $27M the next two years, but $0M is guaranteed and he was already benched once this year. It's time they find a long-term replacement.
Raiders - Derek Carr is being traded or cut, as the Raiders wisely made only $5M of his next $120M guaranteed. I anticipate a trade with how hungry teams are for QBs... thus making Brady the most likely candidate to be a Raider in 2023 with McDaniels as the HC.
Texans - They should be taking a QB at #1 in the draft.
Panthers - They've gone through too many mediocre QBs, it's time they drafted one. Sam Darnold has overachieved in a few starts, but he should be viewed as a backup at this point.
Giants - Daniel Jones is a free agent, but I fully expect him to return. The question is, will he be franchise tagged or paid way too much on a long-term deal?
Seahawks - Geno Smith seems likely to return, but I find it hard to imagine he keeps up his play from earlier in the year. He's a high quality bridge QB, IMO.
Ravens - Lamar Jackson's deal is up, but they're going to franchise tag him at the absolute worst. He wants something around $50M a year...
Bucs - Tom Brady's deal is up, and it feels like he may opt to take out with the team not looking as good in 2022. He's taken a step back too, but not enough for other teams to lose interest in him.
Jets - Zach Wilson is a Josh Rosen-esque bust, and Mike White is a FA. White makes sense as a bridge QB, but I expect them to go after Garoppolo.
Saints - It's been an odd year with Dalton taking over the job from Winston. Neither are the answer, though Dalton is a FA and Winston is probably getting cut.
Titans - Ryan Tannehill can be cut to save $18M, which seems logical with his declining health and the Titans' general lack of wanting to throw the ball, but Malik Willis looks like he's years away from being ready to play QB in the NFL. While you could argue they don't "strongly" need a QB, the Titans need a spark, and the best way to get that would be from the QB position. Good defense + Derrick Henry (before he breaks down) + better QB = true contender in the AFC.
Falcons - Marcus Mariota is not the answer, and Desmond Ridder probably isn't either. I didn't like Ridder as a prospect due to his poor accuracy and so far he's lived up to that scouting report. They currently have the 6th pick in the draft, so QB should absolutely be on their mind.
Broncos -
Patriots - Mac Jones is probably going to get another chance, hopefully outside of Matt Patricia's influence. Bailey Zappe showed some promise too. Long-term I don't think either of them will get the Patriots to where they want to go, but Belichick has laid his bed and must lie in it now.
Lions - Goff is under contract for $30M and $31M the next two years, and he's rebounded well this year. They'd do well to develop a young QB behind him for the future.
49ers - I think it's likely the Niners roll with Lance and Purdy in 2023 and let Garoppolo go for real. They invested 3 1sts into Lance and haven't seen enough of a sample size to give up on him, and Purdy looks like a great backup.
Others - The Rams may want to draft a QB to wait behind Stafford, as it wouldn't shock me if he retires before his deal ends. The Packers already have their backup plan if Rodgers does plan to retire, but I expect A-Aron will be back to pocket his $55M. Watson looks like garbage so far, but the Browns have invested far too much to abandon the plan. Jacoby Brissett likely gets a job as a bridge QB after an unexpectedly solid 11 game showing for Cleveland.
Any thoughts?
Colts - Matt Ryan and Nick Foles are cooked, and Sam Ehlinger didn't even look good enough to be a backup. They need to draft a QB.
Commies - Wentz is under contract for $26M and then $27M the next two years, but $0M is guaranteed and he was already benched once this year. It's time they find a long-term replacement.
Raiders - Derek Carr is being traded or cut, as the Raiders wisely made only $5M of his next $120M guaranteed. I anticipate a trade with how hungry teams are for QBs... thus making Brady the most likely candidate to be a Raider in 2023 with McDaniels as the HC.
Texans - They should be taking a QB at #1 in the draft.
Panthers - They've gone through too many mediocre QBs, it's time they drafted one. Sam Darnold has overachieved in a few starts, but he should be viewed as a backup at this point.
Giants - Daniel Jones is a free agent, but I fully expect him to return. The question is, will he be franchise tagged or paid way too much on a long-term deal?
Seahawks - Geno Smith seems likely to return, but I find it hard to imagine he keeps up his play from earlier in the year. He's a high quality bridge QB, IMO.
Ravens - Lamar Jackson's deal is up, but they're going to franchise tag him at the absolute worst. He wants something around $50M a year...
Bucs - Tom Brady's deal is up, and it feels like he may opt to take out with the team not looking as good in 2022. He's taken a step back too, but not enough for other teams to lose interest in him.
Jets - Zach Wilson is a Josh Rosen-esque bust, and Mike White is a FA. White makes sense as a bridge QB, but I expect them to go after Garoppolo.
Saints - It's been an odd year with Dalton taking over the job from Winston. Neither are the answer, though Dalton is a FA and Winston is probably getting cut.
Titans - Ryan Tannehill can be cut to save $18M, which seems logical with his declining health and the Titans' general lack of wanting to throw the ball, but Malik Willis looks like he's years away from being ready to play QB in the NFL. While you could argue they don't "strongly" need a QB, the Titans need a spark, and the best way to get that would be from the QB position. Good defense + Derrick Henry (before he breaks down) + better QB = true contender in the AFC.
Falcons - Marcus Mariota is not the answer, and Desmond Ridder probably isn't either. I didn't like Ridder as a prospect due to his poor accuracy and so far he's lived up to that scouting report. They currently have the 6th pick in the draft, so QB should absolutely be on their mind.
Broncos -
Patriots - Mac Jones is probably going to get another chance, hopefully outside of Matt Patricia's influence. Bailey Zappe showed some promise too. Long-term I don't think either of them will get the Patriots to where they want to go, but Belichick has laid his bed and must lie in it now.
Lions - Goff is under contract for $30M and $31M the next two years, and he's rebounded well this year. They'd do well to develop a young QB behind him for the future.
49ers - I think it's likely the Niners roll with Lance and Purdy in 2023 and let Garoppolo go for real. They invested 3 1sts into Lance and haven't seen enough of a sample size to give up on him, and Purdy looks like a great backup.
Others - The Rams may want to draft a QB to wait behind Stafford, as it wouldn't shock me if he retires before his deal ends. The Packers already have their backup plan if Rodgers does plan to retire, but I expect A-Aron will be back to pocket his $55M. Watson looks like garbage so far, but the Browns have invested far too much to abandon the plan. Jacoby Brissett likely gets a job as a bridge QB after an unexpectedly solid 11 game showing for Cleveland.
Any thoughts?
