Cousins Derrangement Syndrome - Lets talk about it...

😂😂

hahaha

This is nothing new, and it it’s nothing personal about Cousins. 

Mahomes got a mediocre grade from PFF for a 360 yard, 5 TD / 0 INT performance in week one vs Arizona this year: www.yardbarker.com/nfl/articles/pff_explains_surprisingly_low_week_1_rating_for_patrick_mahomes/s1_127_37872140

Rodgers got a below average grade for a 2015 game in KC where he had 5 TDS: www.pff.com/news/why-aaron-rodgers-earned-a-slightly-negative-grade.

A bunch of Cousins’ biggest plays vs Indy were easy throws: JJ and Thielen were wide open for their TDs, Osborn was wide open for the deep shot he didn’t drop, and Cook’s TD was a long screen that was all YAC. I think he could get more credit for a couple of seemingly easy throws, including the first TD to Osborn — a short throw but all the way across the field, and perfectly placed with anticipation. The deep shot Osborn didn’t quite catch was also a nice throw, and the pass over the middle to Thielen in OT that put them in FG range. On the down side, he missed a couple of open receivers and had what could have been an INT in the end zone in the 3rd quarter on a pass that looked like a misfired throwaway. He moved well in the pocket and didn’t fumble while being sacked 7 times, but then he had a couple of failed scrambles that a more athletic QB could have done more with. Overall, I’d give him about an average grade, something in the 70s. 

No they just don’t give positive marks for making easy throws. Those plays get a neutral (average) grade. 

Mistakes (missing easy throws) are negatively graded, but bad outcomes that aren’t mistakes by the QB (like both of Cousins’ INTs in the Colts game, which were Reagor’s fault) aren’t downgraded. 

Good plays (more difficult than average) are positively graded even if the result is poor for reasons outside the QB’s control (like a drop). 

So a QB who has a lot of yardage and several TDs to wide open receivers or on screen passes will have a lot of neutrally graded plays. If they don’t have to make any difficult throws, they don’t get positive grades. If they make a mistake or two, they get negative grades even if that doesn’t have much of an effect on their stat line (dropped INT, fumble, incompletions on passes they should’ve hit). That means it’s quite possible to throw for 400 yards and 4-5 TDs without grading especially well. 

But that’s the advantage of PFF grades, they show not just the result but the process. 

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The downside of PFF grades for QBs is that they underrate the degree to which good QBs can make throws look easy, by making good reads and throwing receivers open with anticipation. And they (like all rate-based stats including EPA/play, DVOA, etc) probably underestimate the difficulty and importance of QBs who are asked to pass a lot to carry the offense vs those who are given less work to do by the scheme and play caller. 

A fair criticism of Cousins’ (better) PFF grades in previous years, especially 2019, was that he had a lot of defined half-field reads off boot action, and a lot of shot plays that counted as “big time” (difficult, positively graded) throws, but weren’t downgraded harshly if he missed them. The Gary Kubiak offense was built on the run game and Cousins and the pass game were supplementary to that. He only had 9 games (of 16) with 30+ attempts in 2019, and none with 40+ attempts. Cousins did make most of the throws (and so graded well) but he couldn’t carry the offense when the run game was shut down, and he left some plays on the field by missing reads and not being aggressive enough. So his grades overrated his impact.

Cousins did have heavier usage under JDF in 2018, with 606 attempts in 16 games, but that largely didn’t go well. He was very good in 2 shootouts early in the year (Packers at Lambeau, Rams on TNF), but as the year went on he couldn’t carry the offense against better defenses in games where he lots of attempts (Bears on SNF, Patriots).

The pass game was also more important in 2020, given that they were trailing early and often due to the terrible defense. Cousins might have led a huge comeback in week one vs GB (with 3 TDs in the 4th quarter) if the defense could have gotten a stop or two. He also produced later in the year with heavier usage though mostly in games against weak opposition (Panthers, Jags, Lions), or where they were in garbage time for most of the game (Saints on Xmas). So his improvement flew under the radar. 

Cousins in 2021 was asked to do more as the scheme under Klint Kubiak involved more quick game passing on early downs. He did pretty well with that but the scheme was badly designed and poorly executed (especially with all the OL penalties) so they were often behind the sticks. Cousins in 2021 led multiple clutch drives but between teammate errors (Joseph’s missed FG in Arizona, Cook’s fumble in OT in Cincinnati) and the defense failing to get game-saving stops in multiple games, the team level results weren’t there. 

I think Cousins is playing about as well in 2022 as 2019-21, but the context around him is completely different. He’s being asked to carry the offense, passing way more often on 1st downs in neutral game situations, and in short yardage situations, and in the red zone. He’s being asked to stand in the pocket and read the entire field, including waiting to see if option/choice routes come open as coverage develops — not just pre-snap or half-field reads. The results haven’t been amazing, but they’ve been pretty good overall. He’s had lots of missed plays and failed drives, but since games are won and lost on aggregate total points, not by rates (per play or per drive), the fact that Cousins (and O’Connell) has been able to adjust and keep trying until they find something that works has led to enough points and big plays to win most of their games. The Vikings have faced a bunch of really good pass defenses while throwing a lot (Cousins already has 100 more attempts in 14 games than he did in 16 games in 2019, and he’s on pace for a career high in attempts by game 16), and they’ve won a lot of games where he’s had his heaviest usage, a complete reversal for his previous pattern. 

PFF will grade him worse this year because he’s being asked to do more work before he throws the ball, and they’re mostly grading the throws (along with scrambling and not fumbling), not the process by which a particular throw was attempted in the first place. Their grades also don’t account for degree of difficulty in terms of heavier usage, stronger opposition, and higher stakes game situations. 

The grades are fair, and useful in context, but the context is important and worth keeping in mind. 

🙄

Basically it comes down to someone who is sitting at a screen, watching the play making a determination if the difficulty of a particular throw. In other words, someone’s opinion about how hard or easy a throw is. Not seen through the QBs eyes, but from a Birds Eye view.

PFF "He didn't do much"🤣🤣🤣