Purple Path Forward - Colts Week 15 trip to the Glue Factory

Jeff Saturday has had an entire week to figure out how to get the Colts moving forward, and he really looks like he’s getting the hang of this!

Before I get into a breakdown of the Colts football team, there is a critical lesson on how to beat them that can be taken from another other sports: basketball. Or more accurately, old-man basketball. Old man basketball is typically played concurrently on the same court with traditional basketball, the players are individuals who can no longer convince themselves that their vertical and acceleration are exactly the same as they were in college. Some key fundamentals in old man basketball are:
- The repeated head-fake: just keep head faking until your opponent gets bored and jumps and you can sneak a shot past him; there’s no shot clock, take as many fakes as you need.
- The half spin move: you don’t need to spin all the way around a defender, just far enough to get a view of the backboard big enough that you can sneak the ball by and call “bank”.
- The kidder: this is a mental move. You know you’re playing old man basketball, you opponent knows that you’re playing old man basketball, but your opponent doesn’t know that you know he knows you’re playing old man basketball. Use this strategic advantage to bait the “kiddo” into thinking he can “getch ya”.

Now on to the Colts.

The Colts vs Cowboys game was probably the most interesting game I’ve watched this year as I write Purple Paths forward; I did not expect that at all from a 54-19 shellacking. The Colts made the score 19-21 late in the 3rd quarter and missed a two point conversion that would have tied the game. Despite the score, there is a lot in this game that could be used as a template for how to beat the Cowboys.

Starting with this play:



Matt Ryan took Trevon Diggs to old man basketball school on the play above. Head fake (Diggs: I’m not falling for that), shoulder fake (Diggs: pft, I told you I’m not falling for that), second shoulder fake (Diggs: I’M GONNA JUMP HIS ROUTE FOR A PICK!!). Matt Ryan: [floats a touchdown to Ashton Dulin] and says “Nice try, kiddo”.

Next Play:



This is less of a back shoulder throw and more Matt Ryan getting a glimpse of an opening and throwing the ball up and calling “bank”. Receiver Alec Pierce go absolutely no separation at any point on the route and the ball floated in so slowly the DB spotted it. But, Pierce made a great, late move for a touchdown.

Matt Ryan doesn’t have the zip on his passes anymore, but he does have every tool in the Old Man Basketball toolbox. Luckily for the Cowboys, there is a very simple way to beat an opponent playing old man basketball: force him to play football. When the Cowboys forced the issue, the wheels completely came off for the Colts.

The Cowboys coverage stopped trying to jump stuff and just waited for Ryan to throw the ball. Starting with this. This play wasn’t particularly close to a completion, the defender just waited for the throw and undercut the route.  This is good coverage, but the defender had plenty of time to get there:



The last interception was Ryan’s 4th interception of the day. I think this one shows why Fran Reich benched Ryan. I highlighted the ball in the screen grab. The receiver looks open if the ball can get outside, but the pass is so slow to get there the CB closes on the ball. This play never had a chance to be a catch.



There were several more plays that were near interceptions. With limited zip on the ball, the Cowboys could send whatever blitzes they wanted. The Colt’s last turnover was on a sack / fumble blitz by safety Jaron Kearse. Both OLBs dropped into coverage only needed to fill up some passing lanes:



Matt Ryan is done playing actual football and is stuck playing Old Man Basketball in the NFL. Johnathan Taylor is capable enough running back, but just because he won some fantasy leagues in 2021 doesn’t mean he’s enough to carry an NFL team to victory this year. Taylor has carried the Colts in exactly two games this year: a 25-20 win over the Raiders and a 20-20 not-loss to the Texans. Still, Taylor is the best they have.

How to beat the Colts
Don't fall for Matt Ryan's Old Man Basketball moves. Seriously, don't bit on Ryan's head fakes. He's never going to throw it. Don't break on the ball until it's in the air. In this game the shot clock should be operated by Danielle Hunter.

A bye week isn’t going to make Matt Ryan’s arm any stronger. He just doesn’t have the zip on his passes to make a defense pay for single coverage when they blitz. To avoid being caught out of place by Ryan’s old man basketball moves they need to be sure to shadow tight ends and, particularly, Johnathan Taylor on short passes out of the backfield. This probably involves keeping an extra guy near the line of scrimmage, but I think it’s worth facing the risk of Ryan’s deep passing. As a side bonus, this keeps more guys close to the line to defend Taylor runs.