After yet another one score win, the Vikings line up against a feisty Lions squad that is somehow favored to win this one. Will they be able to make it to 11-2?



Injury Report

Vikings
DE Bullard - Out
C Bradbury - Questionable
S Smith - Questionable
LT Darrisaw - Questionable

Lions
G Awosika - Out
LB Barnes - Out
CB Lucas - Out
C Brown - Doubtful
CB Harris - Questionable
CB Okudah - Questionable
WR Raymond - Questionable
QB Sudfeld - Questionable

Line: DET -2 (51% of bets on Vikings)
SuperSim Calculated Line: MIN -9

Notes:

Last time we played, the Lions lost both Swift and St. Brown midway through the game to injuries. Both are now fully healthy and the Lions have already had a ton of success with Jamaal Williams, and with his ability to punch in TDs, they shouldn't have the redzone woes the Jets did. Swift is capable of doing what Tony Pollard did to this defense, it's really a matter of whether their OC schemes in some routes against LBs for him. Losing Hockenson is a pretty big blow since the TE depth chart is mostly 3rd stringers/practice squad types. Josh Reynolds had his biggest game of the year carving up our defense Week 3, and he could be down for more of that with St. Brown drawing attenion. To be fair, we didn't cover him well last time either.

Jameson Williams played his first game last week, but only played 8 snaps. I'd expect 10-20 this week, so don't expect him to have a huge impact.

The Lions OL quieted our pass rush in Week 3 (0 sacks), and is still in great shape. Their primary weakness is RG Stenberg, who was benched for a UDFA. Perhaps Tomlinson can line up on him?

Defensively this unit is still very bad, but they've shown some improvement. They have 3 rookie starters playing at an at least average level, with Joseph recently stepping up and seizing the SS role. Hutchinson isn't quite the monster some envisioned, but he's certainly been better than #1 pick Travon Walker.

The D-line is quite bad against the run, with McNeill being the best stuffer of the group by far. Brockers appears to be cooked and hasn't been getting snaps anymore. They desperately need a 3 tech. The LB position is also quite bad, with 5th rounder Rodriguez being the only positive contributor. It is worth noting that rookie OLB James Houston has 3 sacks the past 2 weeks, which were also his first two games.

The CB room is intriguing, as both Oruwariye and Hughes have been benched. Jacobs has stepped up as the #2 and former safety Harris is locked into the slot CB job. Former top 5 pick Jeffrey Okudah is finally beginning to live up to his draft billing, and he was able to shut down Jefferson in Week 3 (albeit with a bunch of mugging that somehow didn't result in flags).



Prediction: Lions 35, Vikings 26

This has the feel of a grind-it-out divisional game that we should win on paper, but we don't because you simply can't win them all. The Lions' roster is healthier and has players stepping up, and I suspect they will come out swinging and playing more physical than the Vikings. To be frank, I don't think this game will end up being all that important of a loss - perhaps we'll see some regression in the luck category / have some bad penalties or turnovers that usually don't happen to this 2022 Vikings squad.

Any thoughts?