Purple Path Forward - Week 14 - Roll Over Lions
Dec 9, 2022 22:06:09 GMT -6
Funkytown, Danchat, and 3 more like this
Post by MidwinterViking on Dec 9, 2022 22:06:09 GMT -6
The Lions remain in Dan Campbell’s capable hands.
And good news! Campbell is fired up for this game, he wants a chance to go back and go for it on 4th down. Can we get a reality check on that?
[Reality]: The Lions are 0-5 this season when they go for it on 4th down more times than their opponent.
Have at it Dan! That contest to be the biggest meathead on an NFL coaching staff isn't going to win itself, have you even seen Matt Patricia's beard?
The first matchup with the Lions seems like a good place to start. Re-watching that game, there was one main thing I took away: The Vikings passing game had a bad day. At first, Cousins stats look good: 260 yards, 2 TDs including the game winner. However in addition to Cousins’ poor completion percentage, watching the game, I saw a lot of Cousins standing in the pocket looking for deep targets and finding nothing as well as a few bad misses with throws.
Meanwhile, Cook and Mattison combined for 24 carries for 124 yards (over 5 yards per carry) with two TDs. But a fumble by Cook and Cousins throwing the game winning touchdown erased that narrative.
Seeing Cook dominate and Cousins keep looking for deep throws made me look up the play action splits for Cousins. This is a bit mind blowing.
Cousins has fallen off a cliff this year with play action. That doesn’t make any sense when Dalvin appears to be having a solid season. But it does raise the question: can the Vikings run the ball when it counts? It’s easy to say just pound the Lions with the run, but that doesn’t work if the run game isn’t consistent. To decide, I looked at the most recent game the Jets are a stronger defense than the Lions. I looked at all the run blocking on all the 2nd and short, 3rd and short and red zone runs from the Vikings against the Jets; if the Vikings can run here, they can run on the Lions.
Red Zone 1st and Goal from the 4
It looks like 97 might have a shot on Cook, but in reality Cleveland and Ingram had just double teamed him and released to move up to the second level. Jets had no chance to stop this from being a touchdown. Result: Success
Red Zone 1st and 10 from the 14
Thielen held his block and the offensive line completely bullied the entire Jets defensive line out of the way. Following the game Sauce Gardeer (#1) was charged $300 for a lower level ticket to allow him to watch the game like this. Result: Success
Cook 2nd and 4
No Gain, Cook was chased down from behind by an unblocked blitzer. #58, Carl Lawson, for the Jets had to come all the way from outside the left tackle to disrupt Cook, using his own man to pick off Blake Brandle. Result: Failure, but there was a hole on the right side if Cook could get there.
Cook 3rd and 2
Cleveland, Brandle, Osborn and Thielen all contribute as, Cook gets the edge for a gain of 8. Result: Success
Red Zone 2nd and 8 from the 12
Brandle, Cleveland, Ingram and O’Niell all have their guys lined up. And look at Bradburry, straight up Brad-burying his guy. However Cook takes the run all the way outside and only gets a gain of two. The blocking was there for more, maybe even a touchdown, if Cook takes this straight up field. Result: mixed but the blocking was certainly there.
Combine, that’s 3/5 great successes, 1/5 where Cook left some on the table and 1/5 where the play didn’t work. That’s enough success for me to take the run game very seriously, so it still doesn’t answer, why play action isn’t working. Let’s look at short yardage conversion stats:
Vikings 3rd and short
Run Conversion Rate: 86%
Pass Conversion Rate: 56%
NFL 3rd and short
Run Conversion Rate: 68%
Pass Conversion Rate: 55%
Vikings look good here too. The answer could lie in the play calling:
Run / Pass Play Distribution All plays
Vikings: 38/62
NFL: 45/55
Run / Pass Play Distribution on 3rd and Short
Vikings: 29/71
NFL: 54/46
Run / Pass Play Distribution in the Red Zone
Vikings: 37/63
NFL: 49/51
The Vikings are one of the most pass heavy teams in the NFL. And, add to that, the rest of the NFL skews more toward running the ball in high leverage situations, where the Vikings do not. If anything, the Vikings throw more when it counts. If the Vikings don’t have the commitment to run the ball, there is no reason for teams to respect the play action pass.
How to Beat the Lions:
The Lions didn’t stop the Vikings run game in the first match up. The Jets have a good defense and couldn’t stop the Vikings run game. The Lions have a bad defense and give up 5.2 yards per carry, 2nd highest in the NFL (behind only 5.4 by the Chargers; even Houston Texans keep teams under 5 YPC). There is no reason to think that the Lions can stop Cook and Mattison coming at them with a full head of steam. Run the ball down their throats over and over and over, until they know it will take everything they have to get Cook on the ground. Then, get the play action game on track.
Add on about Detroit’s offense. From another thread:
September and October the Lions were averaging 395 yards per game, then, in November and December, that fell off to 333 yards per game; NFL average is 342 per game, so their offense went from being elite to below average almost overnight. They were a pass happy team throwing the ball on 58% of plays, the suddenly became run heavy throwing on only 49% of offensive plays. And to make it worse, over that same time span, the Lions run game tanked too, they went from a wildly efficient 5.3 yards per carry to an anemic 3.6 yards per carry - that's like falling from the #2 team in the NFL in YPC to #31. Despite this decline in efficiency, they started running the ball a lot more 26 attempts per game up to 31 per game.
It's like there was some catastrophe that befell the Lions offense on exactly November 1st that flipped a switch and took them from an exciting, dynamic, fun-to-watch team and turned them into a plodding "gotta establish the run" Lions team. It would be cool if the Vikings could figure what the Lions did / didn't do so we could do exactly the opposite of that .... Too bad we'll probably never know exactly what happened to them.
Lost to 2 good teams
Beat 3 bad teams
Beat the Giants in a game where the Giants really, REALLY looked like a bad team. The Vikings have to stop this play. Detroit run as clear out for St Brown coming across the field on a deep cross.
The Vikings can’t just watch a 30 yard gain to two receivers. If the Lions want to risk a sending 3+ guys deep and opening themselves up to the Vikings pass rush so be it, but the Vikings have to be able to stop a 2 man game.
... and neither is this Chris guy.