Have we gotten it all wrong about the AFC and NFC?
Nov 26, 2022 8:52:12 GMT -6
Funkytown, Danchat, and 3 more like this
Post by diehardtwinsfan on Nov 26, 2022 8:52:12 GMT -6
I'm not one for deep dives and generating content, but I've been chewing on this for a bit, and I think it's appropriate to ask the question...
Namely this... Are we sure the AFC is superior to the NFC? This is what we've been saying all year long (myself included). It's a common statement among the talking heads and supposed football experts as well. Let's face it, it starts with the fact that there are two powerhouse teams in the AFC with two elite QBs in KC and Buffalo, and of course having an elite QB is all that matters in today's NFL (note I'm being a bit sarcastic here). I'm not going to knock those teams. Both are very good teams. Likewise, the AFC seems a bit more stacked at the next tier with Tua (who is making a case for a jump), Watson, Jackson, Hebert, and Wilson (who would have been unquestioned at the beginning of the season but has really fallen from grace). The NFC on the other hand, had aging stars in Rodgers and Brady (and I wouldn't have called Brady elite at the beginning of the season) and promising talent in Hurts and Murray. Perhaps that's an oversimplification, but most everyone has been saying the NFC is trash and QB play is a big part of that.
I think, however, that we need to revisit this. Looking at our own fraudulent team, there are some interesting nuggets to look at. Our AFC competition is the AFC east, which at the moment, we're 3-0 against (we get the Jets next week). We had a relatively convincing win against a Tua-less Dolphins, won a nailbiter against the Bills that wouldn't have been nearly as close had the officials and KOC not done everything in their power to make it close, and beat New England Thursday night in one of our better played games of the season. Both of our losses, on the other hand, came against powerhouse NFC teams.
Looking at point differential, the best team in the league is the Bills, who have been at the top all season (though Philly could possibly leap frog them Sunday if they were to destroy Green Bay), with Dallas and Philly being in the next tier thanks in large part to their victories over us. The AFC has more teams with positive point differential (currently 9 of the 16 teams are in the green vs 6/16 in the NFC), but also boast the two worst teams in this category (Pittsburg and Houston).
Head to head has the NFC ahead by a game.
Looking at wins and losses, it's pretty clear that the AFC has a worse lower tier. They have the only 1 win team (Houston) and five teams with 3 wins. In the NFC, only three teams have 3 wins with everyone else having at least 4 (albeit with a larger number of 4 win teams).
Just looking at these, it seems as though the conferences are much more even than people have given credit with several more really bad teams in the AFC vs the NFC. That certainly helps things like point differentials. I'm somewhat curious what the advance stats say, but just looking at the basic numbers, it really does seem like some of the better teams in the AFC are there because they have a lot more bad teams to feast off of where the NFC seems to have a bit more parity, even with supposedly bad QB play.
Namely this... Are we sure the AFC is superior to the NFC? This is what we've been saying all year long (myself included). It's a common statement among the talking heads and supposed football experts as well. Let's face it, it starts with the fact that there are two powerhouse teams in the AFC with two elite QBs in KC and Buffalo, and of course having an elite QB is all that matters in today's NFL (note I'm being a bit sarcastic here). I'm not going to knock those teams. Both are very good teams. Likewise, the AFC seems a bit more stacked at the next tier with Tua (who is making a case for a jump), Watson, Jackson, Hebert, and Wilson (who would have been unquestioned at the beginning of the season but has really fallen from grace). The NFC on the other hand, had aging stars in Rodgers and Brady (and I wouldn't have called Brady elite at the beginning of the season) and promising talent in Hurts and Murray. Perhaps that's an oversimplification, but most everyone has been saying the NFC is trash and QB play is a big part of that.
I think, however, that we need to revisit this. Looking at our own fraudulent team, there are some interesting nuggets to look at. Our AFC competition is the AFC east, which at the moment, we're 3-0 against (we get the Jets next week). We had a relatively convincing win against a Tua-less Dolphins, won a nailbiter against the Bills that wouldn't have been nearly as close had the officials and KOC not done everything in their power to make it close, and beat New England Thursday night in one of our better played games of the season. Both of our losses, on the other hand, came against powerhouse NFC teams.
Looking at point differential, the best team in the league is the Bills, who have been at the top all season (though Philly could possibly leap frog them Sunday if they were to destroy Green Bay), with Dallas and Philly being in the next tier thanks in large part to their victories over us. The AFC has more teams with positive point differential (currently 9 of the 16 teams are in the green vs 6/16 in the NFC), but also boast the two worst teams in this category (Pittsburg and Houston).
Head to head has the NFC ahead by a game.
Looking at wins and losses, it's pretty clear that the AFC has a worse lower tier. They have the only 1 win team (Houston) and five teams with 3 wins. In the NFC, only three teams have 3 wins with everyone else having at least 4 (albeit with a larger number of 4 win teams).
Just looking at these, it seems as though the conferences are much more even than people have given credit with several more really bad teams in the AFC vs the NFC. That certainly helps things like point differentials. I'm somewhat curious what the advance stats say, but just looking at the basic numbers, it really does seem like some of the better teams in the AFC are there because they have a lot more bad teams to feast off of where the NFC seems to have a bit more parity, even with supposedly bad QB play.
... and neither is this Chris guy.