Pop quiz! That’s right, you underperform, you get a quiz.

Question 1: Which of the above guys is the starting quarterback for the Patriots? If you can’t answer that, guess what! You have something in common with Bill Belichick! (answers at the end)

Question 2: Which of the above guys looks like the sort of player you would trust to lead your team?

Question 3: What is "Mac" in Mac Jones, short for?


The Patriots have won exactly 0 games this year on the back of a good passing game by their starting quarterback. Their one impressive passing game came on the back of Backup quarterback Bailey Zappe. The patriots are on a three game win streak, but those three wins have come against:
The Jets
A Colts performance so bad, it made an ESPN announcer subsequently look like a competent coach
The Jets

On the ground Rhamondre Stevenson is a good back, but has only one game where he has really carried the team, a 163 yard explosion against a Lions team that managed zero points that week.

The Patriots offense is slightly worse than the Commanders. I could argue this will be the worst offense the Vikings have faced all season (the problem is the Packers are technically worse, so that's a tough argument to make). The defense needs to play with more intensity after the Dallas debacle, but they should be able to sell out against the Patriots run game.

Last week, the Cowboys were the most difficult team to write a “how to beat” statement for; there was no obvious trend that I found on weak players, schemes that worked, or obvious flaws to be exploited. This isn’t to say the Cowboys are unbeatable, just that they are balanced. The Patriots on the other hand are the easiest of the year, so I'll just get right to that:

How to Beat The Patriots
I mentioned selling out to stop Rhamondre Stevenson, do that.  Dalvin Cook has to out rush Rhamondre Stevenson.   The reason the Patriots are one of the easiest teams to figure out for a “How to Beat” scheme is because of how strong a correlation there is with run game success and winning their games.  In ten games the Patriots have played this year, the team that rushes for more yards has won eight. 8-2 is a really solid track record.  The exceptions are:

The Dolphins beat the Patriots 20-7 despite being our rushed 78-65; that’s a very pass heavy Dolphins team and not a huge run total for the Patriots, so not a shocker.
And
The Patriots beat the Colts despite the Colts outrushing the Pats 78-70 in a game with Sam Ellinger at quarterback; 8 yards is not nearly enough to overcome that liability.

When there is a stat like that with a strong correlation to winning, I also ask, does this make sense? Looking at the Patriots:
- Stevenson is arguable the Patriots best offensive player, taking him away should limit their offense.
- The Patriots passing game has a high completion percentage but isn’t very explosive, it requires a complimentary running game.

The big different between this week and last week is that the Patriots don’t have the luxury of a Good WR1, WR2, TE and QB to support their good RB.

But what about the Patriots Defense

Before I dive into the Patriots defense, I need you to ask yourself a question: what do you think of Jared Goff? (why would I ask about the Lions’ quarterback… this makes no sense!!! Just do it, OK, you don’t even have to type a response, you only need to answer to yourself). I think of Goff as a low end starter, with the right team around him he can be a functional player with a winning record; he is also prone to mistakes and bad throws that an average to poor team won’t be able to cover up. If I were raking all the starting QBs, I'd put Goff in the 20-25 range.

Agree or disagree with me on Goff, it doesn’t matter as long as you have your opinion of him. Now, why that matters.  Jared Goff is probably the best quarterback the Patriots defense has beaten this year. The Patriots have beaten:

Mitchel Trubisky – before he was benched for Kenny Pickett

Goff – Is who he is

Jacoby Brisett – capable of piloting a team with a strong defense, running game and big time addition of Amari Cooper into a 3-7 ditch; so … maybe an equal to Goff.

Zach Wilson – His only game over 300 passing yards. 3 bad interceptions sunk this day and it was still a 22-17 game.

Sam Ehlinger –Why would the Colts think this is a good contingency plan to Matt Ryan? Because Jim Irsay is on drugs… ohhh… well… yeah, then that adds up.

Zach Wilson (again) – This 77 yard, 3 point outburst is more like him.

That’s the list of QBs the Patriots have beaten this year.  Additionally, the Patriots have lost games while Justin Fields threw for 99 yards; great for a pass defense stat sheet, bad for winning football.

With that in mind have a look at the Patriots defense:



Most of their pass rush comes from Deatrich Wise Jr. and Matt Judon, those two along with Ja’Whaun Bentley are the 3 main guys on the front 7, the others all rotate out playing about half of snaps or less. Wise and Judon are the threats. I could write about how Brian O’Niell will need to play better than he did against Dallas and how the Vikings should help Brandle (he will and they should), but this isn’t about what the patriots are good at, this post is about how to beat them. When looking at how to beat them, it is important to know that Wise and Judon are good pass rushers, they are not as good at run defense. This ties into the main thing on how to beat them – beat them with what they are bad at.

Cook and Mattison should be targeted for 30 carries between them. This is a beautiful game to feed them both and use Mattison as a sledge hammer to keep them soften up for Cook coming right at them.

Quiz Answers
#1 – Clockwise from Top Right: Mac Jones, winner of a Mac Jones look-alike Contest, possibly Tom Brady, and Jake Bailey – who is the only correct answer to question #2 as he is the only one who shaves and is also the Patriots punter.  #3 "McCorkle".