2022 College Football - Week 12: "Western Dogs"
Nov 19, 2022 10:43:31 GMT -6
Funkytown and FSUVike like this
Post by Uncle on Nov 19, 2022 10:43:31 GMT -6
There are two words to describe Week 12 of the College Football 2022 season: "western dogs"...
Huh? "Western dogs"? Are you trying to tell us what sorta tailgatin' food you're cookin' up today, Uncle ? You itchin' to throw some spicy Western style toppin's on your grilled dogs or sumthin'?
Nope, let me explain...
Western
Last week I mentioned that there's only a few Conferences that have a clear picture of who will be playing in each Conference's Championship games: we know that in the SEC, Georgia will face LSU and in the ACC, Clemson should face off against North Carolina. And we know that the winner of next week's Michigan/Ohio St game will get into the BIG10 Championship and TCU will be in the BIG XII Championship. Outside of that, it's not so clear who's getting in who's staying home during Conference Championship weekend...
...but, there's one Conference that will have things cleared up after Week 12:
The PAC 12 is the Conference with the most consequential games during Week 12, and by the time Week 11 of the NFL kicks-off on Sunday, we'll have a good idea of not only which two teams will probably face-off in the PAC 12 Championship, but if anyone stands a chance to make the CFP.
Dogs:
Outside of the PAC 12, we don't have another matchup of Top 25 teams. Instead, there are a bunch of contenders that are playing "underdogs", and Murphy's Law says that not everyone is getting through to Week 13, "Rivalry Week", unscathed...
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Michigan against Illinois...TCU going to Baylor...Georgia traveling to Lexington to square off against Kentucky...the Buckeyes on the road at Maryland...Tennessee at South Carolina...UCF squaring off against Navy...
...I don't know who, but I get the feelin' that one of those Conference contending/ranked teams will fall to a "dog" in Week 12...
Saturday, 11/19 - Early Afternoon Games
Illinois @ #3 Michigan - 12PM ET (ABC)
It's possible that either Michigan or Ohio St looks to their matchup next week and trips-up to a "dog" in Week 12. The easy answer would be Ohio St as they're on the road to a halfway decent Maryland team, but I wouldn't count Illinois totally out; they have a strong defense and running game, and are capable of controlling the clock to keep Michigan's offense off the field. The Fighting Illini, even after losing to Purdue last weekend, are still in the hunt for the BIG10 West crown and a spot in the BIG10 Championship game, in which they could quite possibly square off against Michigan again. The key for Illinois is not getting down too early; if the Wolverines come out of the gates and go up by 2+ scores early, then Illinois will have too difficult of a hole to climb out of as they rely on their running game led by 2023 Draft RB prospect Chase Brown.
#4 TCU @ Baylor - 12PM ET (FOX)
The Bears have had a roller coaster of a season and last weekend was all downhill as Kansas St blasted them in Waco last weekend. They get another shot to make some late-season noise at home as the undefeated Horned Frogs roll into town. TCU had one of the best defensive performances of the College season last weekend in their primetime win vs Texas in Austin and if Baylor finds their passing game, they'll need it again. Yes, TCU is going to the BIG XII Championship game regardless of whether they win or lose, but TCU has their sights set on the CFP and that dream could very well go up-in-smoke vs a Baylor team that does have the players to pull this off.
Saturday, 11/19 - Late Afternoon Games
#1 Georgia @ Kentucky - 3:30PM ET (CBS)
The Bulldogs are in the SEC Championship regardless, but Kentucky could seriously derail Georgia's chances of getting into the CFP if they lose in Lexington and then again vs LSU in a few weeks. Georgia has the players and a healthy/rejuvenated DT in Jalen Carter that has been a terror the last 2 weeks since getting healthy, but to me, thsi game is all about Kentucky QB Will Levis, who's had a very underwhelming season considering the expectations. He had yet another bad loss to unranked Vanderbelt at home in Week 11 and he needs a signature game/win during the '22 season for NFL teams/scouts to point to and say that he definitely is 1st Rd material in the 2023 Draft. Is he up there with Bryce Young and CJ Stroud, or is he a Day 2 QB with tools that needs more developmental time? Honestly, at his age, time is not on his side and his time to make his mark and solidify himself as a top QB prospect is now and regardless of how the Wildcat's 2022 season has gone up to this point, if they stun Georgia during Week 12 then it puts Levis firmly on the 2023 Round 1 conversation heading into Draft season in a few months.
#2 Ohio St @ Maryland - 3:30PM ET (ABC)
The Buckeyes have a real solid, all-around team to challenge anyone in the CFP, but they haven't quite put it all-together this season and they nearly stubbed their toe @ Northwestern in a sloppy 21-7 win a few weeks ago. Maryland has the ability to put up points and "hang" with anyone on the offensive side of the ball, but they've failed to do exactly that the last few weeks. Still, they should lay it all on the line vs the Buckeyes who needs blowout wins and "style points" if they should lose to Michigan next weekend, and winning like they did at Northwestern won't impress anyone on the CFP Committee.
Iowa @ Minnesota - 4PM ET (FOX)
This game of unranked teams actually has bigtime implications for the BIG10 Championship game because when Purdue beat Illinois last weekend, that brought every team in the BIG10 West with just 3 Conference losses back into the fold to represent the West in that BIG10 Championship game. It's unbelievable to think that the Hawkeyes, who's offense looked so bad to start the 2022 season, actually have a shot to repeat as West Division champs and go back to Indianapolis. Likewise, the Golden Gophers at times have looked like they couldn't fight their way out of a wet paper bag, but they are still alive after rattling off three in-a-row. This is essentially an elimination game: win and you're still in the mix for the BIG10 Championship...lose, and you're likely looking at a mid-December bowl game sponsored by Emerald Nuts, Beef 'O Brady's or Taxslayer.
Saturday, 11/19 - Evening Games
#5 Tennessee @ South Carolina - 7PM ET (ESPN)
The Vols answered the question of whether they can come back from their tough loss @ Georgia a few weeks ago when they laid 60+ pts on Missouri last weekend, but South Carolina isn't quite the "cupcake" they seemed to be earlier this season. QB Spencer Rattler has had a disappointing career considering the expectations, but he can erase a bunch of that if he comes to play at home vs the high-octane Josh Heupel offense led by 2023 QB prospect Hendon Hooker. The Volunteers will be looking for more "style points" and trying to keep their foot on the gas pedal because they won't be playing in a Conference Championship game and they need to look as good as possible.
#7 USC @ #16 UCLA - 8PM ET (FOX)
It's been a while since these two teams played a meaningful game against each other, but this game has massive implications not only for the PAC 12 Championship game, but for the PAC 12's hopes to get into the CFP. USC could very well be the Conference's last chance to send one of their team's to the CFP for the first time since 2016 when Washington made it. On paper, this game should be fun with both offenses capable of moving the ball up and down the field and it could exceed last weekend's Washington/Oregon thriller. There's plenty of 2023 Draft prospects on both teams, as well as a top QB prospect for the 2024 Draft (USC QB Caleb Williams) and two coaches in Lincoln Riley and Chip Kelly who want to get back into the conversation of one of College's top Head Coaches. The winner of this one will be which team's defense can get a few key stops - this one should be fun.
Saturday, 11/19 - Late Night Games
#10 Utah @ #12 Oregon - 10:30PM ET (ESPN)
With the Ducks losing last weekend's thriller to Washington in Eugene, they have one thing on their minds: revenge. Last season, Oregon was on-track to win the PAC 12 until they traveled to Salt Lake City in November when their season came to a crashing halt, and then it got worse when Utah beat them again in the PAC 12 Championship to get to the Rose Bowl. Even if the Ducks can't get to the CFP, they can still get back to the Rose Bowl game if they can do something they couldn't do last season: beat Utah. On the other side, Utah needs a signature road win after both of their losses came @ Florida and @ UCLA and their team is firing on all cylinders. Oregon QB Bo Nix was questionable going into this game and both he, and Utah QB Cam Rising, are 2023 Draft Day 2 QB's that would more than love to show NFL teams/scouts they belong in the early Day 2 mix. I expect this matchup to be similar to the other big PAC 12 matchup and both teams to score points, and it should come down to which team's defense comes up with key defensive stops/turnovers.
Huh? "Western dogs"? Are you trying to tell us what sorta tailgatin' food you're cookin' up today, Uncle ? You itchin' to throw some spicy Western style toppin's on your grilled dogs or sumthin'?
Nope, let me explain...
Western
Last week I mentioned that there's only a few Conferences that have a clear picture of who will be playing in each Conference's Championship games: we know that in the SEC, Georgia will face LSU and in the ACC, Clemson should face off against North Carolina. And we know that the winner of next week's Michigan/Ohio St game will get into the BIG10 Championship and TCU will be in the BIG XII Championship. Outside of that, it's not so clear who's getting in who's staying home during Conference Championship weekend...
...but, there's one Conference that will have things cleared up after Week 12:
The PAC 12 is the Conference with the most consequential games during Week 12, and by the time Week 11 of the NFL kicks-off on Sunday, we'll have a good idea of not only which two teams will probably face-off in the PAC 12 Championship, but if anyone stands a chance to make the CFP.
Dogs:
Outside of the PAC 12, we don't have another matchup of Top 25 teams. Instead, there are a bunch of contenders that are playing "underdogs", and Murphy's Law says that not everyone is getting through to Week 13, "Rivalry Week", unscathed...
Michigan against Illinois...TCU going to Baylor...Georgia traveling to Lexington to square off against Kentucky...the Buckeyes on the road at Maryland...Tennessee at South Carolina...UCF squaring off against Navy...
...I don't know who, but I get the feelin' that one of those Conference contending/ranked teams will fall to a "dog" in Week 12...
Saturday, 11/19 - Early Afternoon Games
Illinois @ #3 Michigan - 12PM ET (ABC)
It's possible that either Michigan or Ohio St looks to their matchup next week and trips-up to a "dog" in Week 12. The easy answer would be Ohio St as they're on the road to a halfway decent Maryland team, but I wouldn't count Illinois totally out; they have a strong defense and running game, and are capable of controlling the clock to keep Michigan's offense off the field. The Fighting Illini, even after losing to Purdue last weekend, are still in the hunt for the BIG10 West crown and a spot in the BIG10 Championship game, in which they could quite possibly square off against Michigan again. The key for Illinois is not getting down too early; if the Wolverines come out of the gates and go up by 2+ scores early, then Illinois will have too difficult of a hole to climb out of as they rely on their running game led by 2023 Draft RB prospect Chase Brown.
#4 TCU @ Baylor - 12PM ET (FOX)
The Bears have had a roller coaster of a season and last weekend was all downhill as Kansas St blasted them in Waco last weekend. They get another shot to make some late-season noise at home as the undefeated Horned Frogs roll into town. TCU had one of the best defensive performances of the College season last weekend in their primetime win vs Texas in Austin and if Baylor finds their passing game, they'll need it again. Yes, TCU is going to the BIG XII Championship game regardless of whether they win or lose, but TCU has their sights set on the CFP and that dream could very well go up-in-smoke vs a Baylor team that does have the players to pull this off.
Saturday, 11/19 - Late Afternoon Games
#1 Georgia @ Kentucky - 3:30PM ET (CBS)
The Bulldogs are in the SEC Championship regardless, but Kentucky could seriously derail Georgia's chances of getting into the CFP if they lose in Lexington and then again vs LSU in a few weeks. Georgia has the players and a healthy/rejuvenated DT in Jalen Carter that has been a terror the last 2 weeks since getting healthy, but to me, thsi game is all about Kentucky QB Will Levis, who's had a very underwhelming season considering the expectations. He had yet another bad loss to unranked Vanderbelt at home in Week 11 and he needs a signature game/win during the '22 season for NFL teams/scouts to point to and say that he definitely is 1st Rd material in the 2023 Draft. Is he up there with Bryce Young and CJ Stroud, or is he a Day 2 QB with tools that needs more developmental time? Honestly, at his age, time is not on his side and his time to make his mark and solidify himself as a top QB prospect is now and regardless of how the Wildcat's 2022 season has gone up to this point, if they stun Georgia during Week 12 then it puts Levis firmly on the 2023 Round 1 conversation heading into Draft season in a few months.
#2 Ohio St @ Maryland - 3:30PM ET (ABC)
The Buckeyes have a real solid, all-around team to challenge anyone in the CFP, but they haven't quite put it all-together this season and they nearly stubbed their toe @ Northwestern in a sloppy 21-7 win a few weeks ago. Maryland has the ability to put up points and "hang" with anyone on the offensive side of the ball, but they've failed to do exactly that the last few weeks. Still, they should lay it all on the line vs the Buckeyes who needs blowout wins and "style points" if they should lose to Michigan next weekend, and winning like they did at Northwestern won't impress anyone on the CFP Committee.
Iowa @ Minnesota - 4PM ET (FOX)
This game of unranked teams actually has bigtime implications for the BIG10 Championship game because when Purdue beat Illinois last weekend, that brought every team in the BIG10 West with just 3 Conference losses back into the fold to represent the West in that BIG10 Championship game. It's unbelievable to think that the Hawkeyes, who's offense looked so bad to start the 2022 season, actually have a shot to repeat as West Division champs and go back to Indianapolis. Likewise, the Golden Gophers at times have looked like they couldn't fight their way out of a wet paper bag, but they are still alive after rattling off three in-a-row. This is essentially an elimination game: win and you're still in the mix for the BIG10 Championship...lose, and you're likely looking at a mid-December bowl game sponsored by Emerald Nuts, Beef 'O Brady's or Taxslayer.
Saturday, 11/19 - Evening Games
#5 Tennessee @ South Carolina - 7PM ET (ESPN)
The Vols answered the question of whether they can come back from their tough loss @ Georgia a few weeks ago when they laid 60+ pts on Missouri last weekend, but South Carolina isn't quite the "cupcake" they seemed to be earlier this season. QB Spencer Rattler has had a disappointing career considering the expectations, but he can erase a bunch of that if he comes to play at home vs the high-octane Josh Heupel offense led by 2023 QB prospect Hendon Hooker. The Volunteers will be looking for more "style points" and trying to keep their foot on the gas pedal because they won't be playing in a Conference Championship game and they need to look as good as possible.
#7 USC @ #16 UCLA - 8PM ET (FOX)
It's been a while since these two teams played a meaningful game against each other, but this game has massive implications not only for the PAC 12 Championship game, but for the PAC 12's hopes to get into the CFP. USC could very well be the Conference's last chance to send one of their team's to the CFP for the first time since 2016 when Washington made it. On paper, this game should be fun with both offenses capable of moving the ball up and down the field and it could exceed last weekend's Washington/Oregon thriller. There's plenty of 2023 Draft prospects on both teams, as well as a top QB prospect for the 2024 Draft (USC QB Caleb Williams) and two coaches in Lincoln Riley and Chip Kelly who want to get back into the conversation of one of College's top Head Coaches. The winner of this one will be which team's defense can get a few key stops - this one should be fun.
Saturday, 11/19 - Late Night Games
#10 Utah @ #12 Oregon - 10:30PM ET (ESPN)
With the Ducks losing last weekend's thriller to Washington in Eugene, they have one thing on their minds: revenge. Last season, Oregon was on-track to win the PAC 12 until they traveled to Salt Lake City in November when their season came to a crashing halt, and then it got worse when Utah beat them again in the PAC 12 Championship to get to the Rose Bowl. Even if the Ducks can't get to the CFP, they can still get back to the Rose Bowl game if they can do something they couldn't do last season: beat Utah. On the other side, Utah needs a signature road win after both of their losses came @ Florida and @ UCLA and their team is firing on all cylinders. Oregon QB Bo Nix was questionable going into this game and both he, and Utah QB Cam Rising, are 2023 Draft Day 2 QB's that would more than love to show NFL teams/scouts they belong in the early Day 2 mix. I expect this matchup to be similar to the other big PAC 12 matchup and both teams to score points, and it should come down to which team's defense comes up with key defensive stops/turnovers.
... and neither is this Chris guy.