Am I even required to take the Dallas defense seriously after the greenest of Green Bay Packers mocked them despite a ruined season in prime time?  They might as well just throw a bunch of chickens at the Cowboys.

The Dallas defense is fine, but they are running more on reputation than substance (I am aware that is redundant with saying they’re the Dallas Cowboys). Still there are a few things to learn about them. Let’s start with the one good player they have. True or False tests are always an easy way to draw people in, it seems so easy.

True or False: Micah Parsons is a great linebacker for Dallas.
The answer is false. Parsons is good, but he is not playing linebacker, he is playing defensive end. Compare four players in this game and look at their season to date snap counts:

Leighton Vander Esch
Run Defense: 242
Pass Rush: 22
Coverage: 261

Eric Kendricks
Run Defense: 210
Pass Rush: 21
Coverage: 380

Micah Parsons
Run Defense: 216
Pass Rush: 240
Coverage: 60

Za’Darius Smith
Run Defense: 132
Pass Rush: 287
Coverage: 20

Parsons’ numbers look more like Za’Darius Smith than Eric Kendricks. In fact, as I watched games, I started to think Dallas was actually running a 3-4 defense with Parsons lined up as an edge rushing OLB, rather than a 4-3 linebacker. Parsons moved around the formation like a linebacker, but he almost always rushes. This pass rush heavy strategy seems to make sense with another trend I’m seeing: coverage that can be beaten deep. It looks to me like the Cowboys' defensive strategy is to pressure opponents into passes against a secondary that is sitting on routes looking for interceptions.

This play against the Lions is a microcosm of how I think Dallas wants their defense to work. First you see Trevon Diggs sitting on a route as Goff stares down the receiver. Then in the second snap, you can see the Lion receiver has beaten Diggs for the TD, but the ball never got out as Goff was sacked. This risk reward seems to be a trade the Cowboys will willingly make.





Is this strategy working? Not really. The Cowboys have 7 interceptions this season, last year by this time Diggs had 8 by himself.

If it’s not the defense, what drives the Cowboys?
Dak Prescott is a respectable quarterback. He plays his role, but he's not in the elite QB tier - if anything he's about one season away from becoming Tony Romo 2.0.  

Zeke Elliott is a bit like Alexander Mattison at this point, a hard running sledge hammer who forces the defense to man up. People can hate him because he isn’t the #1 pick in fantasy football anymore, but that role still has value.

That leaves two potential guys to answer the question of what drives the Cowboys: CeeDee Lamb and Tony Pollard, which brings me to….

How to Beat Dallas:
The Vikings need to figure out which player they need to take away. There is a good argument for both.

The argument for Tony Pollard – he’s averaging 6.0 yards per carry on 103 carries and had big games when Elliot was out the last two weeks. He could be the guy that drives the team.
The argument for CeeDee Lamb – Cowboy game most often swing on which team has two things: Fewer pass attempts and a higher yards per pass attempt. Lamb is their best guy to get these deep balls.

Looking at Cowboys game logs and player stat lines, their most impressive game are when Lamb has a high catch rate and high yards per reception. My question is, is it the run game opening things up or Lamb, or the threat Lamb drawing the defense deep to make Pollard look great.

Time to look at 3 important passes to Lamb. I picked two from the Commanders game (Lamb had a good game in a win against what has proven to be a strong Commanders defense) and one from the Packers game. I’m looking more for trends than scheme breakdowns.

Catch 1 – A simple Crossing Route that Lamb takes for 23 yards.  Lamb got matched up on a linebacker who was forced to chase him in man coverage.  



There’s a lot of catches like this. This type of pass is #1 on the list because it highlights the dilemma the Vikings will face. Patrol the middle of the field with Kendricks and take this away or come up and stop Pollard.  This play will look extra bad for Washington later when you see Prescot's heat map for passer rating - the Commanders took something Prescott is bad at and made it easy for him.

Catch 2 – This play broke the game open and really put the score out of reach for the Commanders. I’m not sure what to make of this play, Washington is taking the non-traditional approach of not bothering to cover Lamb. I think Harrison Smith can make this cover.



Catch 3 – this pass should have sealed the Packers win, but the Cowboy defense packed up camp too early.



This is the most dangerous play because Lamb faked a post going across the field then just ran away from the defense. It looks like the Packers saw the Cowboys' tendencies and are taking away the middle of the field. I think the Packers overdid it with taking away the middle of the field. And more importantly, I think the Vikings safeties will be better at covering the sideline.

One final image, Prescott’s passing chart:



Before I get to Lamb, This image raises two very important questions.  First, if Patrick Peterson consistently lines up on the right side of the offense, left side of the defense, how will the Vikings cover the left side of the field where Prescott is much better? It’s not Lamb, he moves all over. That will be an interesting game within the game. If you hear the announcers talk about how “the Cowboys have been picking on that guy (on the left) all day.” You know better, it’s not the Vikings player, it’s that Prescott can only throw one direction.  Second question: Is Dak Prescott, the sleep number mattress salesman, really cool enough to be rockin' a tattoo that far up his neck?  Seems like a questionable choice. 

Dak isn’t a great passer over the middle of the field. His 6-4 TD to INT ratio isn’t great. This is an interesting weakness when he has CeeDee Lamb who seems to be strong going across the middle. It also tells me how I would approach the game…

If given the choice, I would favor pass coverage over run support for Jordan Hicks, Eric Kendricks, and Chandon Sullivan. If this means Pollard breaks off a few runs, so be it. Force Dak to make more throws outside and deep where safeties are already lurking. It’s the high percentage catch and runs that the Cowboys feast on.  If the Vikings take those away I don't think something like a 150-yard rush day for Pollard would be enough to pick up the slack.