Post by MidwinterViking on Nov 11, 2022 22:00:56 GMT -6
I’ve been asking all season: why isn’t KJ Osborn being used as a deep threat?
The comparison I’ve drawn has been Van Jefferson for the 2021 Rams who went deep a lot. Van Jefferson is faster, so he has the potential to catch more deep passes, but that doesn’t mean Osborn can’t threaten the defense deep, after all its “deep threat” not always “deep pass catcher”. Osborn is fast enough to force the defense to send a corner with him if he goes deep, and that’s what I want – Osborn taking defenders away from other pass catchers.
I went back and looked at the All-22 view of the Washington game to see what was going on. Cousins had 40 pass attempts, I counted eight plays where Osborn was both on a deep route and the deepest player when the ball was thrown. There were two additional plays where Osborn went deep but the play didn’t count as a pass attempt and one where Osborn went deep but Jefferson was slightly deeper.
Prepare yourself to see a lot of open dudes, because here are all 11 of those plays with Osborn deep. Screen grab is approximatly when Cousins threw the ball. On each of these the color scheme is:
Purple = KJ Osborn
Yellow = Intended Target
Blue = Other open players
Play 1 – 3rd and 5
19 Yard gain to a wide open Hockenson with the secondary opened up with Osborn required them to cover 2/3 of the width of the field.
Play 2 – 3rd and 7
Jefferson is open on the out for a 15 yard gain, but the pass is on it's way but was tipped at the line of scrimmage. Pressure saved Washington when the coverage was beaten.
Play 3 – 1st and 10
Hockenson underneath as Osborn pulls the secondary deep. Gain of 18. A lot of space for Hockenson to work against one defender (who had very little chance of stopping this).
Play 4 – 3rd and 6
A 13 yard conversion to 1:1 Hockenson for a conversion. One safety is sticking to Jefferson’s side of the field, the other is picking up Osborn.
Play 5 – 2nd and 13
Osborn isn’t technically the deepest guy on this play, but he went deep so I included it anyway. Osborn appears to have his man beaten deep in 1:1 coverage and Jefferson might have a large portion of the field open for a big gain. Cousins threw a bad pass to Jefferson that came down very short for an incompletion. No pressure, this is on Cousins. However it does highlight what I was talking about with the coverage: when Osborn goes deep, the safety has a tough play to make; if Cousins makes that throw, it’s going to be tough to for the safety to get over and Jefferson seems to have a step on the underneath corner.
Play 6 – 3rd and 13
Pressure forced a dump off to Cook. The route combination looks like it would have left at least one of Osborn, Thielen or Hockenson open, but the play never had a chance due to pressure.
Play 7 – 3rd and 11
Not technically a pass attempt, this was the pass interference that canceled out an interception. Coverage was tight on Jefferson, but it did get Thielen open and Jefferson into a 1:1 (hooray for Jefferson in 1:1's)
Play 8 – 1st and 10
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No pass attempt, Cousins was sacked immediately by an unblocked blitzer, but Jefferson is running free into an enormous hole in the secondary underneath Osborn. This is the sort of thing I want to see more of.
Play 9 – 2nd and 18
Osborn goes deep and Jefferson is open for a gain of 11. Literally everyone looks open on this play, Hockenson across the middle and Thielen on the right side of the offense; there's probably three receivers that pick up 10 yards on this play.
Play 10 – 1st and 10
Blocking breakdown meant that Cousins was under immediate pressure and threw the ball away at the feet of Cook. If Cousins had a chance to throw the ball, Osborn is open for a TD, Jefferson is open for 15 yards and Hockenson is probably open for 20. It’s like a buffet that’s all desserts.
Play 11 – 3rd and 4
This play was to salt the game away and once again, there is Hockenson, wide open in a space under Osborn. This time for a critical conversion on the last drive of the game.
Overall, 8/40 pass attempts where I saw Osborn as the deepest guy. There were a lot of big gains and would have been even more if the Commanders didn’t have a ferocious pass rush. For as much success as this creates, I think 8/40 is too low. It's not about Osborn getting big fantasy stats (I only saw one or two that looked like good places to take a shot to Osborn), it's about making everything easy for everyone else.
The comparison I’ve drawn has been Van Jefferson for the 2021 Rams who went deep a lot. Van Jefferson is faster, so he has the potential to catch more deep passes, but that doesn’t mean Osborn can’t threaten the defense deep, after all its “deep threat” not always “deep pass catcher”. Osborn is fast enough to force the defense to send a corner with him if he goes deep, and that’s what I want – Osborn taking defenders away from other pass catchers.
I went back and looked at the All-22 view of the Washington game to see what was going on. Cousins had 40 pass attempts, I counted eight plays where Osborn was both on a deep route and the deepest player when the ball was thrown. There were two additional plays where Osborn went deep but the play didn’t count as a pass attempt and one where Osborn went deep but Jefferson was slightly deeper.
Prepare yourself to see a lot of open dudes, because here are all 11 of those plays with Osborn deep. Screen grab is approximatly when Cousins threw the ball. On each of these the color scheme is:
Purple = KJ Osborn
Yellow = Intended Target
Blue = Other open players
Play 1 – 3rd and 5
19 Yard gain to a wide open Hockenson with the secondary opened up with Osborn required them to cover 2/3 of the width of the field.
Play 2 – 3rd and 7
Jefferson is open on the out for a 15 yard gain, but the pass is on it's way but was tipped at the line of scrimmage. Pressure saved Washington when the coverage was beaten.
Play 3 – 1st and 10
Hockenson underneath as Osborn pulls the secondary deep. Gain of 18. A lot of space for Hockenson to work against one defender (who had very little chance of stopping this).
Play 4 – 3rd and 6
A 13 yard conversion to 1:1 Hockenson for a conversion. One safety is sticking to Jefferson’s side of the field, the other is picking up Osborn.
Play 5 – 2nd and 13
Osborn isn’t technically the deepest guy on this play, but he went deep so I included it anyway. Osborn appears to have his man beaten deep in 1:1 coverage and Jefferson might have a large portion of the field open for a big gain. Cousins threw a bad pass to Jefferson that came down very short for an incompletion. No pressure, this is on Cousins. However it does highlight what I was talking about with the coverage: when Osborn goes deep, the safety has a tough play to make; if Cousins makes that throw, it’s going to be tough to for the safety to get over and Jefferson seems to have a step on the underneath corner.
Play 6 – 3rd and 13
Pressure forced a dump off to Cook. The route combination looks like it would have left at least one of Osborn, Thielen or Hockenson open, but the play never had a chance due to pressure.
Play 7 – 3rd and 11
Not technically a pass attempt, this was the pass interference that canceled out an interception. Coverage was tight on Jefferson, but it did get Thielen open and Jefferson into a 1:1 (hooray for Jefferson in 1:1's)
Play 8 – 1st and 10
No pass attempt, Cousins was sacked immediately by an unblocked blitzer, but Jefferson is running free into an enormous hole in the secondary underneath Osborn. This is the sort of thing I want to see more of.
Play 9 – 2nd and 18
Osborn goes deep and Jefferson is open for a gain of 11. Literally everyone looks open on this play, Hockenson across the middle and Thielen on the right side of the offense; there's probably three receivers that pick up 10 yards on this play.
Play 10 – 1st and 10
Blocking breakdown meant that Cousins was under immediate pressure and threw the ball away at the feet of Cook. If Cousins had a chance to throw the ball, Osborn is open for a TD, Jefferson is open for 15 yards and Hockenson is probably open for 20. It’s like a buffet that’s all desserts.
Play 11 – 3rd and 4
This play was to salt the game away and once again, there is Hockenson, wide open in a space under Osborn. This time for a critical conversion on the last drive of the game.
Overall, 8/40 pass attempts where I saw Osborn as the deepest guy. There were a lot of big gains and would have been even more if the Commanders didn’t have a ferocious pass rush. For as much success as this creates, I think 8/40 is too low. It's not about Osborn getting big fantasy stats (I only saw one or two that looked like good places to take a shot to Osborn), it's about making everything easy for everyone else.
... and neither is this Chris guy.