Irv Smith Jr to IR - Vikes trade for Hockenson!!!

Minnesota Vikings send 2023 second- and 2024 third-round picks to the Detroit Lions for tight end T.J. Hockenson, a 2023 fourth-round pick and a 2024 fourth that becomes a fifth if the Vikings win a playoff game

What Minnesota is telling us: The Vikings might think they can make a deep playoff run this year given the state of the NFC. They also might think a receiving tight end can be an important part of the equation after losing Irv Smith to injury. This trade provides more evidence that having a GM with a background in analytics does not compel a team to behave accordingly, as moving out of the 2023 second round for a player who could be costly to keep limits the Vikings’ flexibility in the future.

At worst, this move reflected the Vikings’ inexperience in leadership roles. It’s not difficult to imagine a first-year, offensive-play-calling head coach fretting to his first-year GM about how badly he needs to replace an injured tight end. It’s not difficult to imagine such a team making a short-sighted move for a player at a non-premium position. Hockenson is under contract next season for $9.3 million. The franchise tag value for tight ends in 2024 could be $12-15 million.

At best, Hockenson gives the Vikings’ offensive-play-calling coach a chess piece he’ll maximize for years to come, in an NFC North that Green Bay appears less likely to dominate in the future.

What Detroit is telling us: The Lions, 1-6 and currently No. 1 in the 2023 draft order, aren’t winning anything this season, so they are looking toward the future. They weren’t interested in paying whatever it will take to re-sign Hockenson down the line. They fashion themselves as a physical running team. Hockenson is more receiver than blocker — not a tight end in the image of coach Dan Campbell, who played the position at 265 pounds. The passing game will go through receiver Jameson Williams, the 12th pick in the 2022 draft, and Amon-Ra St. Brown. The picks from Minnesota might be best spent upgrading the defense.

Grade for the Vikings: B+

Evidently, the Vikings believe that they are contenders. At 6-1, there's still some question about the legitimacy about how strong they are, but it also might not matter. Given their record and the relative weakness of the NFC, the Vikings had the seventh-best chance (2.4%) to win the Super Bowl before this trade, according to ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), even with the model considering them only the 14th-best team.

Hockenson is a solid tight end who has flashed something more -- though he hasn't reached the heights one might have imagined after catching 67 passes for 723 yards in 2020. He hauled in 583 receiving yards in 12 games last season and has 395 in 2022.

Our Receiver Tracking Metrics actually liked Hockenson's 2021 a decent bit: His 65 Overall Score was tied for fifth among tight ends and buoyed by a 73 Catch Score -- tied for best among tight ends. In 2022 that Overall Score has dropped to 58, though he remains fifth among tight ends. He certainly could still ascend, as tight ends tend to develop slowly.

In acquiring Hockenson, the Vikings land a solid third receiving option behind Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen, which is particularly useful with Irv Smith Jr. suffering a high ankle sprain in Sunday's win over the Cardinals -- an injury expected to sideline him 8-10 weeks, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. The Vikings rank 15th in EPA/dropback, so focusing on the passing game is ideal from a team-building standpoint.

Hockenson will be cheap this year for Minnesota then will cost a guaranteed $9.4 million against the cap next season on the fifth-year option.

Grade for the Lions: B

The Lions know they aren't contenders, and while Hockenson is a young player who could help them in the future, they also were about to start paying him. It wasn't a deal they had to make, but gaining draft capital for a rebuilding team is never a bad thing, especially since the Lions will likely be the in QB market but also because cost-controlled young players are often the key to building a championship roster.

Some will scoff at trading a player within the division, but that criticism is be unfounded. Detroit is dealing Hockenson at a time when how good the Vikings are is irrelevant to the Lions' future championship chance. In exchange, they will draft players who will play against the Vikings for years.

In the long term, the Lions still have a solid pass-catching foundation with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams, who was selected after a draft-day trade with the Vikings in April.

Winners - Minnesota Vikings: The NFC North leaders already have a solid offense, and they rank 10th in the league, averaging 27.4 points per game. But despite talented receivers Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen and reliable running back Dalvin Cook, something has been missing. Enter extremely talented tight end T.J. Hockenson. When you think about the Shanahan offense, you think tight ends. Now Kevin O’Connell has just that, and Hockenson should turn into a security blanket for Kirk Cousins while operating on those underneath and intermediate routes while Jefferson stretches the field and Thielen does his thing on the perimeter. At 6-1, the Vikings have one of the longest win streaks in the league, and now are better equipped to strengthen their position as one of the top teams in the NFC.

Losers - Detroit Lions: The Lions have officially thrown in the towel, trading one of their most talented offensive players to a division rival. Yes, the Lions benefit in the form of the second- and third-round picks they received. But they also had to give up two fourth-round picks, and it’s another sign that this team is no closer to turning the corner in Dan Campbell’s second season.