I hate to say it, but we need to extend him...
Feb 24, 2022 20:59:13 GMT -6
Funkytown, HunterMorrow, and 3 more like this
Post by whoskmoon on Feb 24, 2022 20:59:13 GMT -6
Yep its true, I have changed my mind about offering Conklin a new deal. Not as a backup to Smith either, but as the new #1 TE.
In 2021 there were only 13 TEs who caught for more yards than Conklin did in his first year starting. His 593 yards in 2021 were better than all but two of Kyle Rudolph's seasons, a guy who we consistently paid like he was a top ten TE. Conklin didn't have the TDs that Rudy did, but his YAC this past year was nearly a full yard more per reception than Rudy's career YAC/Reception, and was 4th highest among TEs with 70+ targets. So while Rudy was the superior red zone threat, Conklin can actually do something once he catches the ball besides just take two steps and fall over.
But what about Smith Jr? Well I say what about him. After an injury that sidelined him for an entire year, Smith is a huge question mark while Conklin has proven he can put up decent numbers as a starter. Even before the injury, there were no guarantees he was going to be better than Conklin:
From week 13 on in 2020, after Rudy went down, Conklin had 5 fewer yards than Smith despite having an average depth of target 3.3 compared to Smith's 9.4. Essentially Conklin was primarily used as an outlet for Cousins to check down too while Smith was the primary TE, and Smith still only managed 5 more yards in those games. So while the playing field wasn't level for the two of them, Conklin was producing just as much as the primary TE.
To me that means Conklin was the superior TE at that point and while TE is a position that takes a long time to develop, there is no guarantee that Smith comes back healthy, let alone that he surpasses what Conklin did this season. In fact, I would argue it is just as likely Conklin takes the next step and becomes a top 10 TE as it is Smith reaches the level Conklin is already at. We can gamble that Smith becomes a top 14 TE, or we can pay a top 14 TE and hope he becomes top 10 or even top 5.
So that is why I want to pay Conklin, but how much should we shell out? Conklin is not the top free agent TE this year (that would be Dalton Shultz, who I would actually prefer going after over Conklin), and he probably isn't top 3, but the argument could be made he is one of the 4th to 7th best TEs available and I think he will get paid like that. Looking at the 4th best FA TE last year, Janno Smith, who had never been as productive as Conklin, he got 4 years, 50 million. That...would be a lot to stomach for Conklin. Jonno was a guy who was seen with lots of potential though, and last year's TE FA class was kind of sh*t. So for that reason I think we might be able to get Conklin for 3 years 24 million. Seems like a steep price to pay for a team that has so many holes to fill on defense, but if we backload the deal, we could be looking at paying only 4 million this season. Easily doable and a move that would ensure we aren't scrambling for a TE once we find out Smith isn't any good or is injury prone. Or best case scenario, we find out Smith is great and we have two good TEs for the next 3 seasons.
**Note: I used extension multiple times in this thread and in the title. I know Conklin is a UFA, but until the start of the new league year, Conklin is still technically a Viking.
In 2021 there were only 13 TEs who caught for more yards than Conklin did in his first year starting. His 593 yards in 2021 were better than all but two of Kyle Rudolph's seasons, a guy who we consistently paid like he was a top ten TE. Conklin didn't have the TDs that Rudy did, but his YAC this past year was nearly a full yard more per reception than Rudy's career YAC/Reception, and was 4th highest among TEs with 70+ targets. So while Rudy was the superior red zone threat, Conklin can actually do something once he catches the ball besides just take two steps and fall over.
But what about Smith Jr? Well I say what about him. After an injury that sidelined him for an entire year, Smith is a huge question mark while Conklin has proven he can put up decent numbers as a starter. Even before the injury, there were no guarantees he was going to be better than Conklin:
From week 13 on in 2020, after Rudy went down, Conklin had 5 fewer yards than Smith despite having an average depth of target 3.3 compared to Smith's 9.4. Essentially Conklin was primarily used as an outlet for Cousins to check down too while Smith was the primary TE, and Smith still only managed 5 more yards in those games. So while the playing field wasn't level for the two of them, Conklin was producing just as much as the primary TE.
To me that means Conklin was the superior TE at that point and while TE is a position that takes a long time to develop, there is no guarantee that Smith comes back healthy, let alone that he surpasses what Conklin did this season. In fact, I would argue it is just as likely Conklin takes the next step and becomes a top 10 TE as it is Smith reaches the level Conklin is already at. We can gamble that Smith becomes a top 14 TE, or we can pay a top 14 TE and hope he becomes top 10 or even top 5.
So that is why I want to pay Conklin, but how much should we shell out? Conklin is not the top free agent TE this year (that would be Dalton Shultz, who I would actually prefer going after over Conklin), and he probably isn't top 3, but the argument could be made he is one of the 4th to 7th best TEs available and I think he will get paid like that. Looking at the 4th best FA TE last year, Janno Smith, who had never been as productive as Conklin, he got 4 years, 50 million. That...would be a lot to stomach for Conklin. Jonno was a guy who was seen with lots of potential though, and last year's TE FA class was kind of sh*t. So for that reason I think we might be able to get Conklin for 3 years 24 million. Seems like a steep price to pay for a team that has so many holes to fill on defense, but if we backload the deal, we could be looking at paying only 4 million this season. Easily doable and a move that would ensure we aren't scrambling for a TE once we find out Smith isn't any good or is injury prone. Or best case scenario, we find out Smith is great and we have two good TEs for the next 3 seasons.
**Note: I used extension multiple times in this thread and in the title. I know Conklin is a UFA, but until the start of the new league year, Conklin is still technically a Viking.
Come now, we both know this is clickbait disguised as another Cousins thread. 
I see what you're up to!
... and neither is this Chris guy.