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Head Coach vs Quarterback Records
Oct 27, 2022 15:07:49 GMT -6
Reignman, Funkytown, and 2 more like this
Post by tfundermann on Oct 27, 2022 15:07:49 GMT -6
I decided to do a little digging on NFL HC records with and without star QBs. The big thing I wanted to see is how much of an impact did it have on the HC and their career record to have a superstar/HOF worth quarterback. I looked at 7 well known HC/QB combos over the last 30ish years. These 6 pairings also tended to have a decent number of games without each other. The main exception to that is Mahomes on the QB side and Payton on the HC side. All 7 HCs are top 24 in NFL history for wins, and every QB, except Mahomes, is top 8 in QB career wins in NFL history.
Overall, these 7 HCs saw a .155 drop in win rate without their QB. An average loss of 2-3 more games each season. The thing that sticks out like crazy to me is how much worse off Belichick has been without Brady. A .303 difference in win rate without him. If you use Bill's win rate without TB for his entire coaching career, he would have lost 85 more games! You can also see that Reid is still a good coach with or without Mahomes, but special with him. He also obviously had McNabb and other good teams in Philly so that skews his a bit. Payton almost only has had Brees as his QB causing minimal difference as well. In total, these 7 HCs would have lost an additional 166 games if they had the win rate they had without their star QBs. This is obviously an over generalization, but still a significant difference. Outside of McCarthy the other HCs are widely considered top coaches in the history of the NFL. You can easily see 4 of the 7 in the HOF at some point if not 6 of the 7. Meaning, if I did this with the non-HOF level HCs with great QBs the drop off would probably be even more drastic.
I am mainly using this to help show how impactful QBs are on the game. While a great HC can still be great without an all time great QB, even they tend to struggle to win as often. This is why I think you can use QB records as a stat. Now, you should never use a single season or even a couple of seasons as any indicator of how good a QB is. QB records, like most stats in existence, need volume and time. After 5 or 6 seasons and 80-100 games, you can start to see some of these trends and make some decisions on if a QB is great, good, meh or bad. The same reason I would never look at completion percentage after they have only thrown 4 passes, I would never look at QB records after 10 games.
To continue this work, I looked at how each QB performed without their HC and compared it to the HC without the QB (excludes Reid/Mahomes as Mahomes has only played for Reid). As you can see on the chart below, the QBs performed, on average, much better without the HC than the HC did without the QB. The only exception is Brees without Payton. He was a .500 QB without him and Payton a .586 HC without Brees. Outside of Brees/Payton, every other QB has at least a .059 higher win rate without the HC than the HC does without the QB. The closest is Favre at .593 without Holmgren and Holmgren at .534 without Favre. The remaining QBs have at least a .100 better win rate. Roethlisberger and Brady both have a .200+ higher win rate without their HC. This is not perfect by any means, but in general you can see the stark difference in W/L with a great QB.
This hammers the point home even more that great QBs create a high floor for wins over the course of their career. Of these 6 QBs, the worst one from a W/L standpoint is Drew Brees at .500. Otherwise, every QB on this list has a .600+ (.593 for Favre) winning percentage with and without one of, if not, their most well known HC. Not only do they all win 60+% of their games regardless of their HC, when you compare their records with and without the well known HC, they only drop off by .078 overall. The biggest drop off as discussed before was Brees without Payton. He dropped from a .637 record with Payton to just .500 without him. Elways also dropped by more than 10% (.729 vs .613). Every other QB dropped (or increased in the case of Rodgers and Roethlisberger) less than .100 without their HC.
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Again, this data is for some of the best QBs and HCs to ever be in the NFL. This will limit some of the variance, and make the impact of losing either side smaller than it might normally be. If you looked at this for amazing QBs with mediocre HCs or vise versa, you will probably see an even bigger difference.
This was a fun little project and data dive. I hope you enjoy it, and feel free to send me any other data ideas you might have, or just plain are curious about and I will see what I can do. -Tad
Overall, these 7 HCs saw a .155 drop in win rate without their QB. An average loss of 2-3 more games each season. The thing that sticks out like crazy to me is how much worse off Belichick has been without Brady. A .303 difference in win rate without him. If you use Bill's win rate without TB for his entire coaching career, he would have lost 85 more games! You can also see that Reid is still a good coach with or without Mahomes, but special with him. He also obviously had McNabb and other good teams in Philly so that skews his a bit. Payton almost only has had Brees as his QB causing minimal difference as well. In total, these 7 HCs would have lost an additional 166 games if they had the win rate they had without their star QBs. This is obviously an over generalization, but still a significant difference. Outside of McCarthy the other HCs are widely considered top coaches in the history of the NFL. You can easily see 4 of the 7 in the HOF at some point if not 6 of the 7. Meaning, if I did this with the non-HOF level HCs with great QBs the drop off would probably be even more drastic.
I am mainly using this to help show how impactful QBs are on the game. While a great HC can still be great without an all time great QB, even they tend to struggle to win as often. This is why I think you can use QB records as a stat. Now, you should never use a single season or even a couple of seasons as any indicator of how good a QB is. QB records, like most stats in existence, need volume and time. After 5 or 6 seasons and 80-100 games, you can start to see some of these trends and make some decisions on if a QB is great, good, meh or bad. The same reason I would never look at completion percentage after they have only thrown 4 passes, I would never look at QB records after 10 games.
To continue this work, I looked at how each QB performed without their HC and compared it to the HC without the QB (excludes Reid/Mahomes as Mahomes has only played for Reid). As you can see on the chart below, the QBs performed, on average, much better without the HC than the HC did without the QB. The only exception is Brees without Payton. He was a .500 QB without him and Payton a .586 HC without Brees. Outside of Brees/Payton, every other QB has at least a .059 higher win rate without the HC than the HC does without the QB. The closest is Favre at .593 without Holmgren and Holmgren at .534 without Favre. The remaining QBs have at least a .100 better win rate. Roethlisberger and Brady both have a .200+ higher win rate without their HC. This is not perfect by any means, but in general you can see the stark difference in W/L with a great QB.
This hammers the point home even more that great QBs create a high floor for wins over the course of their career. Of these 6 QBs, the worst one from a W/L standpoint is Drew Brees at .500. Otherwise, every QB on this list has a .600+ (.593 for Favre) winning percentage with and without one of, if not, their most well known HC. Not only do they all win 60+% of their games regardless of their HC, when you compare their records with and without the well known HC, they only drop off by .078 overall. The biggest drop off as discussed before was Brees without Payton. He dropped from a .637 record with Payton to just .500 without him. Elways also dropped by more than 10% (.729 vs .613). Every other QB dropped (or increased in the case of Rodgers and Roethlisberger) less than .100 without their HC.
Again, this data is for some of the best QBs and HCs to ever be in the NFL. This will limit some of the variance, and make the impact of losing either side smaller than it might normally be. If you looked at this for amazing QBs with mediocre HCs or vise versa, you will probably see an even bigger difference.
This was a fun little project and data dive. I hope you enjoy it, and feel free to send me any other data ideas you might have, or just plain are curious about and I will see what I can do. -Tad
... and neither is this Chris guy.