Fraudulent ... 13-4 Lucky or Legit?!

If we only play 3 or 4 more teams with 10+ wins that is what this team should do based on history. The question is, how do they get to the SB and win it without facing a single good team in the playoffs?

Tua is no Josh Allen. And Teddy is quite a bit better than Keenum.

The dropoff from Tua to Teddy (or Skylar Thompson and then Teddy) is nowhere near big enough to turn the Dolphins from contending “big dogs” into pushovers.

Miami’s QBs graded just about as well in the Vikings game as Tua did all year, so there arguably wasn’t even a dropoff at all. How many throws did they miss, or bad decisions did they make? It’s not like Tua (who had the one of the highest rates of turnover worthy plays in the league last year at 4.8%, and who was even higher than that in the 3+ games that supposedly showed he’s an elite QB this year, at 5.4%) couldn’t have thrown the ball to Patrick Peterson dropping off his coverage assignment. Tua wouldn’t have avoided many (maybe not any) of the sacks — he’s not exactly great at avoiding hits in the pocket, which is how he ended up concussed in the first place.



Again, the Dolphins got perfectly competent QB play that was about as good as they could have expected from their starter. and they were supposedly a legitimate contender with their starter.

I don’t think it was especially good luck that Terron Armstead was out — he missed lots of games over the years for the Saints, and often played hurt otherwise. Austin Jackson has been one of the worst OL in the league for 2+ years so I doubt he would’ve helped much. The rest of the Dolphins injuries don’t move the needle much if at all. Byron Jones would’ve helped, but he had surgery in March so it’s not like a surprise he couldn’t play.


No need to brag, but there’s no need to apologize either. The Dolphins are a good team, and they played well. The Vikings didn’t play especially well but they still managed to beat them cleanly, in their house, without too many fluke plays or weird bounces. 

If you were serious that Miami is one of the better teams in the league (I agree, they’re up there), that’s a good win. 

if your standard is so high that an 8 point road win over a good team getting good QB play isn’t good enough, I think you’ll only really be happy with 3 teams in the league right now: the Bills, Eagles and Chiefs. And that makes the bar for not being “fraudulent” so high that you’re pretty much asking them to look like the best team in the league before you’ll give them any credit at all. 

The thing is, once in the playoffs what you did during the season doesn't matter.  It's a new season. Win or you are  out.   Just because you did well during the season doesn't mean squat in the Playoffs.  How many times have we seen the top team in wins in the playoffs not even make it to the Super Bowl? I can think of a couple off the top of my head.  Since 2000, 5 wild card teams have won the Super bowl. That's almost the same number of teams that were the top team in the NFL or tied for the top team. 7.  All the teams in the playoffs are good.  If you aren't you won't make it past the first round.  Teams that relay on one person to get them there don't usually do well. (See Packers and Rodgers).  Teams that are more well rounded, which is harder to do usually make it. The problem is maintaining that well rounded team.  (See the Patriots, and no, it wasn't all Brady.) 

Better than the Bills or Chiefs?  Certainly not any worse.  There are so many variables that go into each game you can't count them all.  Luck as something to do with it. But then sometimes teams make their own luck.  If you go back the past 20 years I would bet that any team  that is above the others in wins maybe won the Super Bowl once or twice. That doesn't include a bunch of teams at 12-4 and one of them winning. I'm talking about that 14-2 or 15-1 team that stands alone. 

How many teams will we play this year that are going to end up with +10 wins? Cardinals seemed like that type prior to this season, but they are foundering. The Bills should be in the 10+ club, maybe the Cowboys...Giants?? Counting the Eagles, it might only be 4 this year.

There is a group of teams on our schedule which could step forward and get to or near that level: Cardinals, Patriots, Jets, Colts, and Packers. Amazing that of those, and the Cowboys and Giants, we are only on the road against Green Bay. 2 remaining road games against teams likely to have winning records, that's pretty favorable.

If they are just a "pretty good" team, I expect:
Buffalo and GB on the road: 0-2
Weak teams (Commanders, Lions, Bears) on the road: 2-1
Above average teams (Cardinals, Cowboys, Pats, Jets, Colts Giants) at home: 4-2
That's 11-6 with a pretty skeptical view.

If the Vikings are actually a strong SB contender, it should be:
Buffalo and GB on the road: 1-1
Weak teams (Commanders, Lions, Bears) on the road: 3-0
Above average teams (Cardinals, Cowboys, Pats, Jets, Colts Giants) at home: 5-1
That's what it would take to hit 14-3. Seems possible, but this team has always gone on a bad losing streak or lost games against weak opponents inexplicably.