Justin Fields - a bullet dodged

The 2021 NFL Draft was an important one for the Minnesota Vikings. Coming off a disappointing season, they needed to find a way to improve their current roster while also preparing for the future.

Mike Zimmer’s defense was full of holes, but Kirk Cousins was nearing the end of a two-year extension he signed after the 2019 season. With Cousins’ age and mostly mediocre production, then-general manager Rick Spielman had a decision to make. He had to find a franchise quarterback or bolster the roster elsewhere.

Spielman attempted to do both, trading back for Christian Darrisaw in the first round and stockpiling third-round picks. One of those selections was Kellen Mond, but the Vikings’ Plan A at quarterback was to acquire Justin Fields.





The Vikings tried to trade up with the Carolina Panthers as the Ohio State quarterback was slipping down the board, but they weren’t willing to give up the amount of premium draft capital needed for a blockbuster deal. The Chicago Bears stepped in and gave the New York Giants two first-round picks, a 2022 fourth-round pick, and a 2021 fifth-round pick to take Fields with the 11th-overall selection.

The news was met with reservation in Minnesota. Fields was a much better prospect than Mond coming out of college. The Vikings had just let a potential quarterback of the future get away. Not only that, but a division rival had swooped in and got him.

Almost two years into Fields’ career, the feeling has changed. The Bears come into U.S. Bank Stadium on Sunday in the middle of an extensive rebuild. They’ve replaced general manager Ryan Pace and head coach Matt Nagy, who made the deal to acquire Fields, and the Bears appear content to tank their way to a top-five pick.

Fields no longer looks like the top prospect he was at Ohio State, but he does create an alternate universe. Did the Vikings dodge a bullet after being outbid for Fields? Or would a different support system in Minnesota unlock the potential he showed with the Buckeyes?

Early returns have not matched the high hopes for him coming out of Ohio State. Fields is 4-10 as a starter. He’s thrown nine touchdowns to 14 interceptions with a career QBR of 26. Through four weeks this season, Fields is last in PFF passing grade among quarterbacks that have taken 50% of their teams' dropbacks. He’s taken 100 dropbacks, by far the fewest of all starters, but has been sacked 16 times, second-most in the NFL behind only Carson Wentz. He’s generating turnover-worthy plays at the highest rate in the league and big-time throws at one of the lowest rates. His 3.40 average time to throw is the longest in the NFL and he’s being sacked 32.7% of the time he’s being pressured, again the highest rate in the league. His 50.7% completion percentage is the worst in the NFL.

The issue presented to Poles and head coach Matt Eberflus is how much of that is on Fields or the talent-ridden roster.

Pro Football Focus’s Brad Spielberger put together an informative chart detailing the severe lack of talent around Fields.



Fields is not only getting pressured more than any other quarterback by a considerable margin, his wide receivers are also worse at getting open than any other group in the NFL. That’s not a recipe for winning football. Fields’ starting wide receivers are Darnell Mooney, Equanimeous St. Brown and Dante Pettis. The unit was ranked as the 29th receiving core in the NFL by ESPN during the preseason. The offensive line was ranked 31st. As a roster overall, ESPN ranked it 30th in the NFL.

Here’s another great stat from Spielberger.



While his offensive line isn’t holding up, Fields is also not performing while under pressure. Fields has turned 49 dropbacks under pressure into only five completions this season. His NFL passer rating under pressure is 27.4, higher than only Kyler Murray. He’s also been one of the worst at preventing sacks, per this chart from PFF’s Kevin Cole (this was before Week 4).



Sacks are both a quarterback and offensive line stat. Sometimes an offensive lineman is beat right away and there’s nothing the quarterback can do. Other times, uneasiness in the pocket can lead to unnecessary sacks. As mentioned before, Fields holds on to the ball longer than any QB in the NFL and predictably he’s been at fault for many of his sacks. All the quarterbacks on the far left of the chart have been bad at limiting sacks (noticeably Cousins has been above average at avoiding sacks).

This conundrum is a microcosm of the difficulties Poles has placed on his new regime with the complete rebuild. How can Fields be fairly evaluated without capable talent to accurately showcase his proficiencies along with his deficiencies?