Good stuff, whoskmoon .

I also wondered that same thing as one of the key differences in the win over Green Bay was the Packers coming up empty twice in the red zone (just 7 pts in 3 trips) while the Vikings scored on each of their 3 possessions inside the Green Bay redzone (1 TD and 2 FG). I was trying to find Red Zone % numbers out there but could only find TD Red Zone %'s (both OFF and DEF) but I think this is a key stat we should watch out for going forward into the season. If the Vikings are going to really turn that corner into being a contender, they will need to score more TD's than FG's when they get in the redzone.

DVOA isn’t opponent adjusted yet, this early in the year. Technically it’s “VOA” for the first 3 weeks of the season (not “D”efense-adjusted Value Over Average). Opponent adjustments start to factor in week 4, gradually increasing until week 10 IIRC.

If the Packers end up top 10 in offense (they were 1st or 2nd the last 3 years under LaFleur, albeit with much better receivers), and the Lions offense ends up bottom 10 (29th last year), those week one DVOA numbers will get adjusted hard, and the week one DVOA for the Vikings defense will look a lot better (and better than the Eagles).

It’s very impressive that the raw DVOA numbers have the Vikings 2nd on offense after playing what should be a good defense, and 18th on defense after facing what should be a good offense.



It’s interesting how that PBE stat has been so widely quoted this week.

Pass blocking efficiency isn’t a great stat, it lacks a lot of context. It’s heavily influenced by scheme, especially quick game. OL can lose blocks quickly but not give up a pressure if the ball’s out fast enough. When that happens, there’s no official QB pressure so the PBE is good, but the grades are bad. When the QB holds the ball (whether by scheme because the offense involves a lot of deep dropbacks and slow developing plays, or because he’s indecisive, or just wants to invite pressure before scrambling), blown blocks on the OL will produce pressures and the PBE will suffer. So PBE should be checked against time to throw.

You can see this trend across previous Vikings seasons.

2015: team pass block grade ranking 25th, PBE ranking 31st, Time to throw (Bridgewater) 3.02 seconds, 3rd. Norv called a lot of 7-step drops, Bridgewater had a slow release time. OL wasn’t good but not terrible, yet still allowed the 2nd highest pressure rate in the league because the process behind them was so slow.

2016: grade 30th, PBE 23rd, TTT (Bradford) 2.45, 30th of 37. OL got worse (terrible), but Bradford ran a lot of quick game to compensate, so the PBE was respectable though still below average.

2017: grade 12th, PBE 16th, TTT (Keenum) 2.73, 15th. OL was much better (above average). Keenum tended to invite pressure (saw one of the highest pressure rates once you include pressures he was charged with for holding the ball) and they ran enough deeper play action shots that the TTT went up, so the PBE improvement compared to 2016 wasn’t that impressive. But the 2017 offense could do way more things for the cost of that pressure rate, because the OL was much better, as shown by the grade.

2018: grade 27th, PBE 30th, TTT (Cousins) 2.62, 20th. OL was bad again, Cousins got rid of the ball fairly quickly overall but that average is a bit misleading — JDF called a bunch of quick hitting WR screens, but Kirk tended to hold it longer whenever they had deeper concepts called. Basically this offense couldn’t function downfield because the OL gave up quick pressure whenever they tried.

2019: grade 25th, PBE 25th, TTT (Cousins) 2.89, 10th. OL was bad but less terrible, Kubiak/Stefanski called a bunch of play action that had Cousins holding the ball while rolling away from the pass rush. PBE was well below average but they could run a downfield passing attack except when defenses (like Green Bay) abandoned contain on the run game to blitz the boot.

2020: grade 29th, PBE 30th, TTT (Cousins) 2.76, 17th. Like 2019 but the guards got worse. Cousins sped up his process, this was the year he started to improve his pocket presence and mitigate pressure by getting the ball out earlier by decision making not just scheme / play calling (like in 2018 with all the screens).

2021: grade 27th, PBE 19th, TTT (Cousins) 2.62, 30th. Klint (with Janocko) added a heavy diet of quick game to the scheme, which produced a better PBE despite a still bad grade, much as in 2016 with Bradford. Cousins’ process in the pocket continued to improve.

...so the pass block grades are a more reliable indicator of how the seasons have actually gone for the Vikings. 2017 was the outlier when the OL was actually pretty good, but aside from that the poor grades in 2016 and 2021 were more accurate in describing how those offenses had to function (pass blocking was a liability) than the more respectable PBE, which were improved by the use of more quick game passing concepts.

…

In week one, the Vikings team pass block grade was decent (especially against a high quality pass rush), grading 21st. Packers by comparison graded about the same, 19th. But the Vikings PBE was terrible, 31st, while Green Bay’s was respectable at 17th.

Yet I would challenge anyone who watched that game to say with a straight face that the Vikings passing attack was more affected by pressure than the Packers (as PBE would suggest). If anything, it was the opposite, as the game played out, but that had a lot to do with Cousins mitigating pressure when it came while Rodgers took sacks, and had a fumble and an INT. Certainly the Packers did get some pressure on Cousins but that wasn’t doing much to affect the Vikings offense, while the Vikings pass rush did a lot to take Rodgers off his game.

And you can see this through the time to throw data, and the grades in shorter or longer developing plays.

Cousins didn't use much quick game: 39.4% of dropbacks under 2.5 seconds, 9th fewest in the league that week. Vikings ran a lot of play action (39.4%, 8th), and that led to him holding the ball -- average time to attempt was 2.76 seconds, tied for 7th longest. Cousins graded very well on the slower developing plays (88.2, 4th) including play action (89.8, 4th).

Rodgers was getting the ball out quickly: 55.3% of dropbacks under 2.5 seconds, 8th most in the league in week one. Green Bay only had 9 play-action dropbacks (23.7%, tied for 20th). Rodgers' average time to attempt was 2.37 seconds, 8th fastest and nearly 0.4 seconds faster than Cousins was pulling the trigger. Rodgers' best moments were in the quick game, grading at 78.8 (3rd), while he was a disaster whenever he had to hold the ball (37.4, 32nd of 33).

Putting that together: Cousins saw a fair amount of pressure because the Vikings game plan included a heavy dose of play action and downfield shots. Cousins (too) often checked down from them and ended up with a low aDOT, but he wasn’t often getting rid of the ball quickly because of pressure, that only happened a handful of times all game.

Rodgers saw less pressure because he didn't trust his OL and so was schemed up to get the ball out quickly. On the few occasions when he held the ball, his receivers couldn't uncover and he ended up with several negative plays.

Team grades are a better indicator of how effective the pass rush was: Vikings 77.3 (7th) were well ahead of the Packers at 68.3 (14th). Team pass block grades were very similar: GB at 56.3 (19th) and MIN 56.0 (21st). Pass blocking efficiency (GB 17th, MIN 31st) doesn’t capture how the game went, at all.

Someone around here had a working theory about that all offseason.