The Correlation of PFF Grades to Winning
Aug 27, 2022 16:03:18 GMT -6
Funkytown and MidwinterViking like this
Post by Reignman on Aug 27, 2022 16:03:18 GMT -6
One thing I have always wondered but never had the patience to sit down and track, is which PFF unit grade (Oline pass blocking, QB play, Run blocking, running, WR, defense, etc.) has the best correlation to winning football games.
This one goes simply by whether or not the grade was above the league avg for that year. I threw a few columns on there for the Vikings so we can see where we might be failing.
This one goes by grades that were in the top 33%.
So alright, offense is more important than defense, but who had "coverage" as the most important aspect? And passing is below receiving? Impossible. I demand a recount. And tackling isn't as important so I guess Kendricks is off the hook.
using PFF grades we can probably get a good idea of which aspect of football contributes more to winning. My money is on QB.
This really should be its own thread as there is so much to unpack here.
First, this indicates that I was correct that PFF isn't necessarily about results. Why does that indicate that? Because the two position groups that are only given grades when they are thrown at (when something good or bad will happen every time) have the strongest correlation between wins and losses in receiving and coverage. It could also mean that those grades are the most accurate of all PFF grades, but I don't think that is it. A good corner or WR can cover/run a great route really well and not be thrown at. For a CB especially they are less likely to be thrown at if they are in good coverage. Olinemen can block poorly and not have it impact the play, a pass rush can be great on a play where the ball goes for 99 yards and a TD, and a QB can throw a nice completion for 6 yards on 3rd and 8 with the game on the line.
Second, this kind of proves that Kirk is not just unlucky since his win % is very close to league average when he plays well. A little less because of what I said above with PFF not caring as much about results as how good the player looked doing something, but close enough where you can safely say Kirk's record is the result of how well Kirk played.
Third, rushing does lead to winning, even if it is less impactful than other factors and hasn't really been important for the Vikings. Of course, PFF's rushing and run blocking grades have always been suspect to me, but that is besides the point. Dalvin Cook rushes for over 200 yards against Pitt and only has a 79 grade in that game? GTF out with that BS.