[OC] 2021 Game-By-Game Replay - Game 11 at SF

This may be the last game look-back in the series for a few reasons:

First, this game is more or less where the competitive part of the Vikings' season ended: the 49ers and Vikings were both 5-5 and in competition for the 6th or 7th seed with this game having a massive influence on playoff standing. After this game, most of the rest of the season was the team in various stages of “nothing to lose” to “we don’t really care anymore”. It’s difficult to learn anything about 2022 when the team isn’t playing for anything.

Second, the entire purpose of this series is 2022. I’m really only looking for trends, opportunities, schemes and players that should be different in 2022. I don’t actually care about the 2021 record and results anymore. Having done a partial look ahead, a lot of these things appear in the win against the Steelers and loss at the Lions. At this point I have enough to draw conclusions about 2022 (is that future post foreshadowing?).

Third, training camp will start replacing all of my speculation about the future with actual evidence.

So with that…

Interesting stat:
I’m looking at the tackle totals here with solo tackles in () and snap % played:
Harrison Smith: 11(6) – 100%
Anthony Barr: 8(5) – 63%
Nick Vigil: 8(4) – 81%
Xavier Woods: 6(4) – 100%
Eric Kendricks: 6(3) – 100%

Nick Vigil and Eric Kendricks were not productive in this game. In a game where the 49ers had 39 rush attempts, the two linebackers that played the most had 14 tackles. In several places Vigil was out of place and missed tackles. Kendricks also led the team in blitzes (with 3) and recorded 0 pressures / hits / sacks. The lowlight was this touchdown run where a tight end (George Kittle is really good, but he’s still a tight end) blocked both Vigil and Kendricks back into the end zone:



I left the part where Kendricks hobbles away in there because maybe that explains some things?  If he was slowed by injury, maybe that's a possibility... or things just hurt more after a play like that.


Key play:
I’ll let someone else pick a key play with votes and comments.

Breaking down the criteria I use to select my key plays for each game:

1) It has to be something that I can point to and say “here’s the thing that could change with a different scheme or approach”, remember this is about 2022.

2) It has to have a role in swinging the flow or momentum of the game; i.e. a missed opportunity to get off the field or a mistake that led to a stalled drive. I also try to not pick a big play; instead I look for things that may have gone unnoticed that would have set up or prevented a big play.

3) It has to be a repeatable play - something that happens often enough that changing it would have a meaningful difference on the season. Fluky or rare stuff doesn’t qualify.

With those in mind there were a few I considered for key plays this game in chronological order.
- Darrisaw's sack allowed with 9:56 left in the second quarter
- 49ers' 3rd-and-11 conversion with 35 seconds left in the second quarter, Vikings leading 14-7
- Vikings' 1st-and-10 with 18 second left in the second quarter from their own 40
- Deebo Samuel's 49-yard run on the first drive of the second half
- Cousins’ interception on the Vikings’ first drive of the second half
- Dalvin Cook’s fumble late in the 3rd quarter

Here is a look at each of those plays to and my take on it for key play status:

Darrisaw's sack allowed
The play is very straightforward. Darrisaw completely whiffed on the block and Nick Bosa hit Cousins at a full run. Cousins started to step up in the pocket, but Bosa got to him well before he completed the step. By the time Jefferson came open passing behind the linebacker, Cousins was long down.



Is key because: The Vikings were up 14-7, but the 49ere were about to grind out a 15-play, 8:20 drive to tie the game. This sack stalled a drive that could have extended the Vikings' lead and greatly limited the opportunity for a momentum-swinging drive.
Not key because: This is a case of a great player in Nick Bosa making a play - nothing ground-breaking about that. To pick this as a key play, you would have to determine that Darrisaw has improved enough to make this play in 2022.


49ers' 3rd-and-11 conversion
The play is simple enough. Brandon Aiyuk crosses in front of Mackenzie Alexander for a 24-yard gain on 3rd-and-11. Aiyuk ran his route against air and the pass is over Anthony Barr dropping into coverage:



Noted bountygate sponsor and recipient of a one-year NFL suspension for said sponsorship, Jonathan Vilma was one of the announcers for this game and summed up the replay as follows: “There’s Brandon Aiyuk. He’s going up against Mackenzie Alexander, and I have no idea what coverage that was. Mackenzie Alexander all out of whack; technique was terrible.” Given Vilma’s status as a member of the Saints' Hall of Fame, and therefore being devoid of any credibility, you can take this analysis for what it’s worth; however, he might know some things about coverage.

Is key because: 3rd-and-11 should be a stop. This led directly to a touchdown instead of a field goal attempt. Issues with Mackenzie Alexander are systemic, and he's gone. Coverage issues and technique issued with veterans that have been in the system a long time reflect on Zimmer’s defense. Following this play, there was a dead-ball penalty on the Vikings as the 49ers attempted to spike the ball suggesting a lack of focus / awareness.
Not key because: Barr was very close to being in position to tipping a very accurate pass. If Barr’s hand is six inches further out, the coverage works - the pass is tipped and the play is never noticed. This suggests the issues were not systemic, but just a good throw by Garoppolo.


Vikings' first-half Hail Mary attempt
This happened the first play after a long Nwangwu return setting the Vikings up at their own 40 with 18 seconds left. This means the Vikings needed 20 yards in 12 seconds with all their time-outs to get points before halftime; very makeable, so it’s a good decision to go for it. I’m including both of the plays they ran in this situation as a single attempt.

Thielen is the closest guy to open, but he’s running a curl, not crossing into the middle of the field. Given that he stops his route about where I screen shot this, I think a throw to Thielen is at least defended if not intercepted:



The second play is run with 5 seconds left:



I included these as a two-for-one because they have the same basic problem. On a play that needs to be a quick hit (less than 6 seconds) to gain 10+ yards, in both cases the Vikings send three guys deep and keep seven back to protect (with two of them dropping out to be checkdown targets). In both cases, the 49ers are in deep coverage and cover all three deep guys easily. Why even bother to have a checkdown guy?

Is key because: This is an example of Klint Kubiak being unaware of the game situation and wasting players on the field. Even if they take off Cook or Conklin and put in Smith-Marsette for something like this, they would still have six blockers for four rushers. Failure costs the Vikings a chance to go into halftime with a lead.
Not key because: a drive that starts with 12 seconds left is going to be hit-or-miss no matter what.


Deebo Samuel's 49-yard run
A simple outside run to Deebo Samuel. Samuel had been doing exactly this for the last 2.5 games. This play was almost identical to his 20-yard touchdown run in the first half.  Nick Vigil missed a tackle in the backfield, and Samuel didn't stop for more than 50 yards.  Following this play, the entire Vikings' defensive line was hired by the 49ers' grounds crew because of their close-up familiarity with the turf of Levi Stadium.



Is key because: It sets up a touchdown, but more because this was a very clear and obvious tendency that the Vikings did not effectively plan for. It was a poor showing by two guys where there could be expectations of change Vigil (gone) and Kendricks (history of being better)
Not key because: It’s well-blocked by the 49ers and could be argued this is the thing they are best at - and that they just won the play, and could be expected to do so with some regularity.


Cousins' interception
A game-swinging interception has to be on the list.  This is a critical play because the 49ers just took a 21-14 lead with touchdowns right before and after halftime and would extend it to 28-14 one play later. Thielen sat down where he expected to find a hole in the zone, but it wasn’t there and the ball was thrown directly to Azeez Al-Shaair:



This is not on the key play list because of the momentum swing, but because there are no receivers more than six yards downfield despite pass protection holding up. Everyone packed in that space meant the 49ers' defense never really spread out and the passing windows were small and easily defended.

Is key because: Momentum impact, if you blame play design more than a defensive misread.
Not key because: Cousins doesn’t make this type of mistake that often, and he’s going to be the same player again, so it’s likely not repeatable or something that will change.


Cook's fumble
The Vikings had closed the gap to a five-point game with back-to-back touchdowns and greatly slowed down the 49ers' attack. This was the drive that could have won the game. Then this:



$#*!@ %#*? **$%@!!!! ^$#!*&, Oli Udoh.

Is key because: The Vikings had momentum and this highlights just how bad Udoh was.
Not key because: It’s just a bad play but not key if Cook hangs onto the ball, and fumbles are fluky and not repeatable.

Vote or comment away

Final group reviews
Using the same -2 to +2 rating for other games. This can be interpreted as:
+2 = enough to carry a team to a win, all else being equal
+1 = contributed to a win
-1 = contributed to a loss
-2 = defining cause of a loss

Passing offense:
I would nearly count this game as a +2 if not for that back-breaking interception. Most of the scoring drives were driven by big pass plays.
Game score: +1
Final review cumulative contribution: +6


Rushing offense:
I’m honestly shocked at this. Going into this process, I didn’t realize how poorly the Vikings' rushing offense had showed up at key times. Watching plays out of order, I see some real highlight runs by Dalvin, but as a whole, this unit stunk. The highs this group is capable of suggest there is a huge amount of upside to be had with the new coaching staff. 
Game score: -2
Final review cumulative contribution: -8 (Does that suggest +4 wins if the Vikings could actually establish the run?  Honestly, as bad as I've seen, that's possible.)


Pass defense:
I could mark this down further just for that Alexander third-down conversion. However, the outside corners (i.e. the most important guys in the rating) played really well; the mistakes were passes against linebackers. Armon Watts contributed four pressures and a sack, further increasing my excitement to see more of him in 2022.
Game score: +1
Final review cumulative contribution: +7


Run defense:
I don’t care that much about yardage totals. Usually giving up rush yards to stop a passing game is a good trade, but this gets the -2 rating because of how poorly they were prepared for the Deebo Samuel aspect of the 49ers' run game. This was the third game in a row of him being used as a runner, so the trend was obvious and well-established. On the season, I will conclude that this was not as bad as full-year stats suggest.
Game score: -2
Final review cumulative contribution: +1


Special teams:
Does a critically-timed kickoff return for a touchdown cancel out a missed extra point? Yes, as long as there were no other mitigating factors. Well done, special teams!
Game score: +2
Final review cumulative contribution: +7


Coaching:
I could argue this game plan wasn’t too bad and that some of the mistakes were just players losing plays they shouldn’t lose. And strategically, despite those mistakes, the Vikings had the ball in a position to go win late before the Cook fumble. However, too many of the individual plays looked like the team was unprepared, so this is negative.
Game score: -1
Final review cumulative contribution: -2

Final score: 26-34 loss.

Prior Weeks:
Game 1 @ CIN
Game 2 @ ARI
Game 3 vs SEA
Game 4 vs CLE
Game 5 vs DET
Game 6 @ CAR
Game 7 vs DAL
Game 8 @ BAL
Game 9 @ LAC
Game 10 vs GB