[OC] Would Teams Draft Better If They Just Listened To Me?

Jul 8, 2022 19:08:08 GMT -6 13 Replies
Since 2018, I've been creating draft boards that are based upon the consensus of a few specifically chosen 'draftniks'/scouts in the media that I find to be accurate, throw in some other metrics like RAS (Relative Athletic Score) and PFF grades, and create a board that I use to judge the 'accuracy' of draft picks and what account for as 'reaches' and 'value picks'. For this article, I'll compare every 1st and 2nd round pick from 2018 and 2019 to what my draft board recommended, and see which teams would have benefitted from taking my advice and see which would have suffered. So, for example, here's my 2019 draft board:

And let's see how the Packers did compared to my recommendations:

Actual = The player the team chose in that pick
Recommend = The player that my board prefers. If both players match, then nothing happens.
Actual AV = PFR's AV stat. This is the per year AV that the team's selection has generated
Actual PFF = PFF grade melted down into a tiered system, that being from 1 (Elite) to 5 (Average) to 9 (Abysmal / Did not play enough). This is what the player who was selected is graded as
My AV = The per year AV that my recommended player has generated
My PFF = The PFF tier that my recommended player falls into

So in 2019, the Packers selected Rashan Gary, while my board would have preferred Montez Sweat since both players are 3-4 edge defenders. In most scenarios, I kept the positions the same in order to reduce complexity. Only in a few situations where I either had a specific opinion on a player (Giants, don't take a RB at pick #2) did I switch the position.

Then Gary and Sweat are compared - both have similar PFF grades, but Sweat has generated more AV, so the Packers are given a -2 score. This totally not arbitrary number is how I ranked all teams.

Now, let's see the graph of all of the teams graded, to see if I (well, the draftniks I chose) know more than NFL teams!

The results are in - NFL teams are right more often than me by a slight measure: about -0.4. Teams in the bottom left are the ones who would have been better off following my board, and the ones in the top right quadrant would be worse off taking my advice. Well, it's not a shocking conclusion, but there were teams that could use my help. Let's see how the Cardinals could improve:

Turns out I liked Lamar Jackson more than Josh Rosen, so the Cardinals would have gone down a much different path in this scenario. Since they found their franchise QB (and I didn't love Murray going at #1), I instead had them take my #1 player on the board, Nick Bosa. Now instead of having one good QB, the Cardinals have one good QB (that I personally think is better) and an elite pass rusher. You can thank me later, Arizona!

Now let's see the opposite side of the spectrum - how would I screw up the Browns? [insert Browns joke here]

While I keep the Mayfield pick the same, I waste the 4th overall pick on Josh Jackson, who fell to the 2nd round and should have fallen farther, as he's already been cut and is a end-of-the-roster player compared to the #1 CB Ward has become. I make one good move in upgrading from Corbett to Daniels (Corbett was a total flop with the Browns but the Rams fixed him, but I'm not counting that), but then completely screw up by not taking Chubb and blowing a pick on Derrius Guice. Then I miss out on Greedy Williams (who has been underwhelming in his own right) for Justin Layne, who has played 150 snaps on defense in his whole career and is only good at special teams work.

Finally, what about the Vikings?

This ends up being basically even. I was clear that I loved Will Hernandez over Mike Hughes, but Hernandez turned out to be a below average guard who got benched. Still, he provided more value than Hughes who was always hurt and usually only played a part-time role. 

I was surprised to see Orlando Brown ranked ahead of Brian O'Neill on my board, and even though Brown would not be a scheme fit, I think the Vikings may have missed out on a really good LT. They don't get dinged for that very much since O'Neill has turned out to be very good in his own right.

Finally, I loved Andre Dillard in the 2019 draft, which turned out to be a very bad opinion since he couldn't even win the starting LT job of the Eagles over a 7th round pick. He's just a swing tackle now, which is even a far cry from Garrett Bradbury. AV makes Bradbury look like a competent center - which he isn't - but Dillard is clearly an even bigger bust than Bradbury.

So, would you like to see any other teams' grades compared to my boards? Or would you like to see some expanded analysis that goes beyond the 2nd round or even into the 2020 draft? Let me know what you think!

[OC] Would Teams Draft Better If They Just Listened To Me?


Reignman: March 11th, 2024 will live in history as Kirk Cousins Independence Day *cheerleader* Mar 11, 2024 16:34:20 GMT -6
salbrecht: Why can Pittsburg sign Russel Wilson fo 1.2 million and we get Sam Darnold for 10 million?? Mar 13, 2024 18:31:25 GMT -6
Reignman: when you put it like that, it's a real head scratcher, but this franchise is all about their precious culture, so I imagine they passed on a guy like Russ over something silly like that ... Darnold will have a big smile when he's throwing all the INT's Mar 14, 2024 17:44:47 GMT -6
shandman: If I am NE, I seriously consider getting Justin Fields and roll with Fields/Brisset this year.

For Vikings to actually pull this off they probably have to trade #11, #23 and 2025 first rounder. In return, they hopefully get #3 overall this year and NE's
Mar 15, 2024 19:29:01 GMT -6
glenwo2: Saying that Darnold will have a big smile when he's throwing all the INT's is quite the Take, Reignman. Mar 16, 2024 20:17:05 GMT -6
Nemesis: Good grief....first I hear....and then I hear...I think I better go back to being gone. *woot* ??? Mar 22, 2024 15:24:17 GMT -6
Norseman: You were gone? Mar 22, 2024 22:30:40 GMT -6
Nemesis: I'm a long gone daddy www.youtube.com/watch?v=jtpe6_2nCts Mar 23, 2024 9:39:00 GMT -6
glenwo2: Norseman is Nemesis' Daddy! You heard it here first, folks. Mar 25, 2024 12:26:17 GMT -6
glenwo2: I'm kidding of course, Nemesis. :) Mar 25, 2024 12:27:05 GMT -6
Norseman: How do you know that it isn't true? Mar 25, 2024 14:28:23 GMT -6
glenwo2: Because Nemesis is the Mod and I'm just a punk rookie acting like a goofball. Mar 25, 2024 16:57:35 GMT -6
Nemesis: Plus glenwo2 is probably my dad, he just likes messing with me from the beyond. Mar 26, 2024 17:13:40 GMT -6
Reignman: Oh great, Nemesis believes in ghosts now too? Did ghost dad remember his name or only the first initial after you recited the alphabet? Apr 1, 2024 22:17:26 GMT -6
Nemesis: We agreed before he died that he would use the name "glenwo" and contact me on the PP shoutbox, but the "2" has me a bit confused. Did I miss his first attempt at contact? Apr 5, 2024 8:22:45 GMT -6
glenwo2: Well glenwo1 was busy that day.... Apr 6, 2024 3:01:11 GMT -6
Nemesis: This is amazing. That's exactly what he told me he would say! :'( Apr 13, 2024 16:48:32 GMT -6
slidell: Sell out and do what it takes to get Daniels.Mccarthy and Maye are Ponders waiting to happen Apr 22, 2024 14:37:23 GMT -6
SiteWolf: What about Daniels separates him that much from Maye? His old team didn't whine when he left ASU, his frame as it is right now will struggle to stay healthy with his playing style...so is he really the better prospect? Apr 24, 2024 13:47:01 GMT -6
SammyFranchise: The Redemption of Sam Darnold is Upon Us!! Jun 10, 2024 17:48:59 GMT -6
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