[OC] Would Teams Draft Better If They Just Listened To Me?

Jul 8, 2022 19:08:08 GMT -6 13 Replies
Since 2018, I've been creating draft boards that are based upon the consensus of a few specifically chosen 'draftniks'/scouts in the media that I find to be accurate, throw in some other metrics like RAS (Relative Athletic Score) and PFF grades, and create a board that I use to judge the 'accuracy' of draft picks and what account for as 'reaches' and 'value picks'. For this article, I'll compare every 1st and 2nd round pick from 2018 and 2019 to what my draft board recommended, and see which teams would have benefitted from taking my advice and see which would have suffered. So, for example, here's my 2019 draft board:

And let's see how the Packers did compared to my recommendations:

Actual = The player the team chose in that pick
Recommend = The player that my board prefers. If both players match, then nothing happens.
Actual AV = PFR's AV stat. This is the per year AV that the team's selection has generated
Actual PFF = PFF grade melted down into a tiered system, that being from 1 (Elite) to 5 (Average) to 9 (Abysmal / Did not play enough). This is what the player who was selected is graded as
My AV = The per year AV that my recommended player has generated
My PFF = The PFF tier that my recommended player falls into

So in 2019, the Packers selected Rashan Gary, while my board would have preferred Montez Sweat since both players are 3-4 edge defenders. In most scenarios, I kept the positions the same in order to reduce complexity. Only in a few situations where I either had a specific opinion on a player (Giants, don't take a RB at pick #2) did I switch the position.

Then Gary and Sweat are compared - both have similar PFF grades, but Sweat has generated more AV, so the Packers are given a -2 score. This totally not arbitrary number is how I ranked all teams.

Now, let's see the graph of all of the teams graded, to see if I (well, the draftniks I chose) know more than NFL teams!

The results are in - NFL teams are right more often than me by a slight measure: about -0.4. Teams in the bottom left are the ones who would have been better off following my board, and the ones in the top right quadrant would be worse off taking my advice. Well, it's not a shocking conclusion, but there were teams that could use my help. Let's see how the Cardinals could improve:

Turns out I liked Lamar Jackson more than Josh Rosen, so the Cardinals would have gone down a much different path in this scenario. Since they found their franchise QB (and I didn't love Murray going at #1), I instead had them take my #1 player on the board, Nick Bosa. Now instead of having one good QB, the Cardinals have one good QB (that I personally think is better) and an elite pass rusher. You can thank me later, Arizona!

Now let's see the opposite side of the spectrum - how would I screw up the Browns? [insert Browns joke here]

While I keep the Mayfield pick the same, I waste the 4th overall pick on Josh Jackson, who fell to the 2nd round and should have fallen farther, as he's already been cut and is a end-of-the-roster player compared to the #1 CB Ward has become. I make one good move in upgrading from Corbett to Daniels (Corbett was a total flop with the Browns but the Rams fixed him, but I'm not counting that), but then completely screw up by not taking Chubb and blowing a pick on Derrius Guice. Then I miss out on Greedy Williams (who has been underwhelming in his own right) for Justin Layne, who has played 150 snaps on defense in his whole career and is only good at special teams work.

Finally, what about the Vikings?

This ends up being basically even. I was clear that I loved Will Hernandez over Mike Hughes, but Hernandez turned out to be a below average guard who got benched. Still, he provided more value than Hughes who was always hurt and usually only played a part-time role. 

I was surprised to see Orlando Brown ranked ahead of Brian O'Neill on my board, and even though Brown would not be a scheme fit, I think the Vikings may have missed out on a really good LT. They don't get dinged for that very much since O'Neill has turned out to be very good in his own right.

Finally, I loved Andre Dillard in the 2019 draft, which turned out to be a very bad opinion since he couldn't even win the starting LT job of the Eagles over a 7th round pick. He's just a swing tackle now, which is even a far cry from Garrett Bradbury. AV makes Bradbury look like a competent center - which he isn't - but Dillard is clearly an even bigger bust than Bradbury.

So, would you like to see any other teams' grades compared to my boards? Or would you like to see some expanded analysis that goes beyond the 2nd round or even into the 2020 draft? Let me know what you think!

[OC] Would Teams Draft Better If They Just Listened To Me?


kidchess: who wants to shout in real life, ill be at the minneapolis downtown east waiting Jan 13, 2023 22:22:42 GMT -6
kidchess: just playing Jan 13, 2023 22:22:52 GMT -6
bobbyc: Terrible play calling...Last play; need 8 yards, throw a 3 yard pass; 2nd possession; third and 1, no fullback in game...No Dalvin Cook..... Jan 15, 2023 19:11:18 GMT -6
bobbyc: The good news is that Cousins gets to cash his weekly $673,076 check tomorrow Jan 15, 2023 19:43:57 GMT -6
Purple Pain: Sorry for the delay! Divisional Round for Pick 6 is now up! Jan 19, 2023 12:38:35 GMT -6 *
Purple Pain: Link: purplepainforums.com/thread/6658/pick-playoffs-edition-divisional-round Jan 19, 2023 12:38:50 GMT -6
Reignman: Not to get all grammar nazi on you kirko, because it's my least favorite kind of nazi, but you really need to learn how to use punctuation so the verbal diarrhea that your fingers create is at least comprehensible while you're being consistently wrong. Jan 21, 2023 15:17:14 GMT -6
Purple Pain: Again, sorry for the delay! Jan 26, 2023 19:11:29 GMT -6
Purple Pain: Championship Weekend for Pick 6 is up: purplepainforums.com/thread/6686/pick-playoffs-edition-championship-weekend Jan 26, 2023 19:11:53 GMT -6
Purple Pain: Super Bowl edition is up for Pick 6: purplepainforums.com/thread/6707/pick-playoffs-super-bowl-lvii Feb 8, 2023 9:41:14 GMT -6
vikadam: SKOL VIKINGS RULE!!! Mar 16, 2023 9:55:40 GMT -6
andhesloose28: Why are my shouts deleted? Apr 13, 2023 7:24:34 GMT -6
Funkytown: If something was deleted, I'm assuming you already know why. But to answer your question, several mods moderate the board. If something is low-quality nonsense, mods have the authority to edit, move, or delete as they see fit. Hope that helps. Apr 13, 2023 10:37:40 GMT -6
Ted Glover: Speaking of low quality nonsense, I hope everyone tunes in to the 'Vikings Report With Drew And Ted' live NFL draft shows on Thursday and Friday night for the first three rounds. We'll be on for every pick, and we've got some cool prize giveaways too! Apr 15, 2023 13:22:59 GMT -6 *
Reignman: oooooo I love low quality nonsense May 25, 2023 15:46:19 GMT -6
Funkytown: Of course you do, Reign. Of course you do. lol May 25, 2023 20:17:44 GMT -6
TAFKASP: There is no such thing as high quality nonsense. May 27, 2023 18:26:09 GMT -6
Reignman: Bullcorn, my nonsense is always high quality 8D May 29, 2023 14:04:04 GMT -6
Funkytown: Yep. That's what I was thinking. Reignman is high quality nonsense. Jun 2, 2023 18:37:45 GMT -6
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