Vikings 2022 Training Camp

If we look from 30,000 feet, signing two cheap veterans and drafting a guy who hasn’t played right guard since he was 18 years old doesn’t appear to be much of a change up. Over the dark years of the right guard spot, the team’s approach has largely included moving players’ positions or signing someone for the least amount of money possible. They asked Berger, Remmers, Ezra Cleveland and Oli Udoh to play in a different spot than their natural position and the highest paid right guard the Vikings have put on the field in Week 1 since 2015 cost $4.6 million on the salary cap.

This time around, they are moving former Dolphins tackle Jesse Davis to guard and spending $4 million total between he and veteran journeyman Chris Reed. It seems they will also ask former LSU left guard and second-round pick Ed Ingram to move from the left to the right side to get into the competition as well.

None of that convinces us that the laughter will end any time soon. But with a microscope, you can see something in particular that deviates from the past: Strength in numbers.

Now it’s certainly no guarantee that throwing a bunch of bodies at the position is going to work but in recent training camps there was either no competition for a struggling player like Elflein or Remmers or an in-name-only competition. In 2021 camp, for example, Udoh went up against Dakota Dozier, who had struggled his way through the previous season at left guard and eventually returned on a contract worthy of a replacement-level player. He was cut after camp and brought back on the practice squad.

This time the competition looks to be legit. Davis and Reed were signed to very similar contracts and both have significant track records at the position.

While Davis played tackle almost exclusively last year, he played 509 snaps at right guard in 2020 and 921 plays at RG in 2018. The 2018 season stands out as Davis’s best pass blocking year in which he ranked 33rd in pass blocking grade. Though he was 44th of 56 in pass blocking efficiency, which is based on sacks and pressures allowed.

None of Davis’s numbers over a large sample size would hint that he’s going to transform the Vikings’ offensive line but him tanking it is unlikely too. Over his career, the 32-year-old lineman has played nearly 5,000 snaps, which says that his team didn’t feel they needed to replace him. There’s something to be said for that considering the Vikings have continued to shuffle players in and out looking for answers year after year. His PFF grades as a guard are on par with replacement level, which doesn’t sound exciting until you see that Udoh graded as the fourth worst guard in football last year.

Davis sets a bar for the rest of the contenders for the right guard job. If you can top his play, you are probably better than replacement level. If not, you shouldn’t be a starter.

Chris Reed has never been a full-time starter, spreading out 1,340 snaps over six seasons and five teams. He’s graded as an above average run blocker three years in a row and a shade below replacement level as a pass blocker. The former Mankato lineman had more highs and lows in his pass blocking than Davis. He put together four above average graded games and three with grades worthy of benching, including allowing five pressures in a matchup against Tennessee.

I figured that might be a product of shuffling between left and right guard but that was not the case. As a full-time starter for Carolina in 2020, Reed had a stretch of four straight games graded below 35, which is benchable-level play, and then followed that up with three straight over 70, which is very good.

If the battle comes down to Davis vs. Reed, the Vikings’ offensive staff will need to decide which player can be more consistent as well as give them a higher ceiling and better run blocking upside. There’s an argument for either player getting the job.

There might be an argument for neither player getting the job if Ed Ingram plays well or Wyatt Davis reminds the Vikings that he exists.

Let’s talk about the latter first. The current leadership seems to have about as much trust in their 2021 third-round pick as the last coaching staff. Davis, who was picked out of Ohio State and considered a contender to start right away, never saw the field in his rookie season — not even when the starting right guard went down in a game in which he was active. They chose Blake Brandel instead.

He has a chance to prove them wrong for spending free agent money on two veterans and a second-round pick on Ingram. The team did not randomly decide that Davis was not a part of the future — they assuredly provided him with the reasons he was not in the mix last year and areas in which he could improve. It’s within the realm of possibility that he could make the needed adjustments but it’s also stunning that he went from the favorite to be RG1 last year to suddenly the longshot dark horse for the job.

On the matter of Ingram: It would be a surprise if he came from behind to win the job because of the sheer level of experience of Davis and Reed. However, if he doesn’t win the job, it’s hard to say that picking him in the second round was justified. A second-round pick guard should be more gifted and offer an instant upgrade over replacement level players or they simply weren’t worth a second-round pick.

Evaluations on him around the draft coverage universe were very skeptical that he can ever become better than players like Reed and Davis.

“Ingram's physical and play profiles are a bit mismatched, which could have him drifting between starter and backup during his career,” NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein wrote.

Because of Ingram’s past sexual assault charge and suspension from LSU, the draft pick already has a target on its back. The Vikings are arguing with his selection that their evaluation on Ingram is better than the consensus of the outside world. That’s certainly possible but historically it’s not always a great bet.

Where Ingram could stand out is pass protection. He graded very well at LSU last year as a pass blocker and allowed just 11 hurries in 484 pass blocking snaps. If his run blocking is behind but pass blocking scores better than Davis/Reed, this regime might value those things differently than the past group.

And in order to accomplish more than the past group, the new regime will need better results at guard than their predecessors. In 2021, Kirk Cousins faced the fourth most pressure from the right guard position in the NFL. In 2020, he was third. In 2019, seventh. You see where this is going. Cousins isn’t the type to escape rush up the middle and when he was pressured last year Cousins completed just 45.9% of his passes (per PFF). Reducing the number of snaps he’s under pressure is vital to better performance. Can that be done with scheme? Possibly. But scheme can only cover so much. The Vikings need to pick the right winner for the right guard competition or you’ll hear the same old punchlines.

20. CJ Ham, FB
Yes, you read that right. The sixth-year fullback makes the list. Though Kevin O’Connell is bringing Sean McVay’s offense with him to Minnesota, he’s also tweaking it to better fit the Vikings’ existing roster. That’s going to mean plenty of usage for Ham, who was on the field for 33 percent of the team’s offensive snaps a year ago and could reach that number again this season.

19. Greg Joseph, K
If we’re ranking important players on this franchise, the kicker always has to be on the list, right? It’s still unclear how O’Connell will act toward his kicker after important misses, but it’s a safe bet he’ll handle it better than Mike Zimmer, who once threatened to go for two in preseason games if his rookie kicker didn’t stop missing.

18. Chandon Sullivan, CB
Perhaps this seems an odd place for a nickel corner who has been up and down in recent years. But the Vikings simply don’t have much depth at slot corner. Neither Arif Hasan nor I projected a second nickel corner to make the team in our latest 53-man roster projection. So the Vikings need Sullivan to stay healthy; otherwise, Ed Donatell is going to have to get creative.

17. K.J. Osborn, WR
The Vikings certainly aren’t going to use three-wide receiver formations as much as McVay and the Rams, but they’ll still be a featured part of the offense. Osborn last season finally answered the team’s call in recent years for a solid No. 3 wide receiver, grabbing 50 receptions for 655 yards. Osborn will have an important role even if Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson stay healthy, which isn’t a given since Thielen is coming off season-ending ankle surgery.

16. Lewis Cine, S
It seems the Vikings are already banking on a difference-making performance from the first draft pick of the Kwesi Adofo-Mensah era. Donatell’s defense requires fast play from its safeties (both running speed and quickness in processing plays), and those are two traits that stood out to the Vikings about Cine.

15. Adam Thielen, WR
Ankle surgery ended Thielen’s 2021 season, but the 13 games before that showed he remains among the league’s best red zone targets. Thielen has 24 touchdown receptions in his last 28 games. If the Vikings offense is going to work as O’Connell hopes, Thielen will be a big part of it.

14. Eric Kendricks, LB
Zimmer used to describe Kendricks as a “see ball, get ball” linebacker. Well, that happens to be the perfect style for Donatell’s scheme, which hopes to have big linemen occupy offensive linemen while the team’s linebackers are free to rack up tackles in bunches. Given that, Kendricks could be in store for a massive statistical season.

13. Brian O’Neill, RT
O’Neill is the unquestioned leader of an offensive line group that has gotten plenty of scrutiny in recent years. He gives the Vikings steady play on the right side of the line, which is especially important given the revolving door at right guard. O’Neill hasn’t missed a game in four NFL seasons, and the Vikings need that to continue.

12. Dalvin Cook, RB
Perhaps lost in all the talk of the Vikings’ move to a more pass-happy offense is Cook. But make no mistake, O’Connell knows what he has in the running back. Cook’s playing time won’t diminish — O’Connell just may find new ways to get the ball in his hands.

11. Garrett Bradbury, C
The former first-round pick was benched in the middle of last season. It looked at the time like he might have played his last game in Minnesota. But Bradbury played his way back into the starting lineup, and the new coaching staff has supported him throughout the offseason, declaring loudly that he’s the team’s starting center. Bradbury will need a better performance this fall, but he and the team feel confident in this new scheme that relies on athletic linemen like Bradbury.

Along the way, Smith never ranked outside of the top 20 and scored in the top three by PFF in 2015, 2017 and 2019. Over his career, the 2012 first-rounder has given up an absurdly low 57.6 QB rating on throws into his coverage.

The Vikings elected to restructure Smith’s contract this offseason rather than moving on from their ultra-valuable safety. They also gave him a partner who has much greater pedigree than any of his previous cohorts — by a mile.

Sendejo and Harris were undrafted. Woods was taken in the fifth round by Dallas and signed a cheap one-year contract with the Vikings. In terms of athletic prowess, the website Relative Athletic Score placed Sendejo as an 86th percentile athlete, Harris 41st and Woods 76th. Cine’s Combine scores placed him in the 99th percentile of athleticism — nearly 10% greater than Harrison Smith.

Cine also comes with a different skill set. While Smith’s fellow safeties were usually required to hold the fort while he flew around to different spots on the field based on situation and his instincts, Cine has the raw talent to do some of the same things that have made Smith a borderline Hall of Famer.

But the NFL is a different beast from college football. How do safeties adapt?

In 2020, PFF studied every position’s learning curve and found that safeties were among the positions that adapted the quickest, producing more Wins Above Replacement per 100 snaps as rookies than cornerbacks and linebackers.

Recent history has plenty of examples. Last season Miami’s rookie safety Jevon Holland became an instant star with an 84.7 PFF grade and 87.7 grade in coverage. The second-rounder allowed just an 88.6 QB rating against and racked up 16 QB pressures. Raiders rookie Trevon Moehrig also graded well above average in coverage.

In 2020, Antoine Winfield Jr. played a key role in the Bucs’ Super Bowl-winning defense as a first-year player. The year before that Juan Thornhill did the same for Kansas City, giving up a 69.9 QB rating into his coverage on 614 passing snaps.

The 2018 class featured two stars in Derwin James and Jesse Bates, each of whom ranked as top-notch players at their position by PFF as rookies. Justin Reid also graded above 75 for Houston in his debut season.

In 2017, Marcus Williams, John Johnson, Budda Baker, Xavier Woods, Jamal Adams and Eddie Jackson all stood out as rookies.

That doesn’t mean it worked for everyone. Pittsburgh’s Terrell Edmunds, Carolina’s Jeremy Chinn, the Giants’ Jabrill Peppers and the Jets’ Marcus Maye all had below average graded rookie years.

While the Vikings are counting on Cine to be the freakishly talented partner that Harrison Smith has never had, the job won’t be gifted to him. Last year when Cam Bynum was asked to fill in for Smith due to COVID he performed admirably. The team has insisted they were impressed and that Bynum will still be part of the mix. He took a number of first-team reps in minicamp and they could open camp splitting reps. The bar won’t be low for Cine to get the S2 gig.

But if he quickly shines in camp, it won’t be far fetched to expect a season reflective of other rookies who have been difference makers right away in recent years.