Deep(ish) Draft Thoughts
May 2, 2022 17:25:15 GMT -6
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Reignman, Funkytown, and 18 more like this
Post by FSUVike on May 2, 2022 17:25:15 GMT -6
It definitely felt like Kewsi had made up his mind that he was trading back from #12 no matter what if Gardner/Stingley didn't fall or one of the Top 3 Edge guys. And frankly, I don't care who's chart is used. It wasn't a bad trade because a Division rival got a WR. Who's to say Detroit doesn't up the ante to get Williams at #13 or later.
I'm not going to use this post to judge whether the NR views things the same way I do. That's unpossible, as my boy Ralphie would say. It certainly appears they agree with MCardell that the WR Corps is fine. I have zero problem with them passing on him.
I also have zero problem with them passing on my guy Jermaine Johnson. It was very clear that the League had a different impression of him than the Draft Analyst Community, same as with the QBs.
I have more of a problem passing on Hamilton. But it's entirely possible that those slow Combine and Pro Day times scared them off. Or maybe Donatell didn't think Kyle would be a good scheme fit. Whatever.
What I'm not ever going to be good with is pre-deciding you're going to take any offer, even if it's a lowball one. And that is exactly what I believe happened Thursday. I negotiate salaries with candidates we're wanting to hire for a living. When someone shoots me a Top of the Salary Range request I don't say yes because I've already decided I have to get this guy hired no matter what. I counter lower in the range. Negotiating then happens and we get to a deal. 0r I move on to the next candidate.
Kwesi took the first/maybe the only offer. When I first saw the trade I was certain there was a 2023 2nd in there. Not as good as a 1st but close enough considering where Detroit usually picks. Maybe that was a bit of wishful thinking as far as value. Well, then surely another 3rd this year, even a late one. No? Well alrighty, then. Gotta be an early 4th in there, right? Bueller? Bueller? Bueller?
One of my Cardinal sins is getting negative value back on the Rich Hill pick value chart in the early Rounds. You want something I have? Better meet my asking price. I collect vintage porcelain signs and neon clocks like you see on American Pickers. Why would I sell you something out of my collection for less than it is worth?
The only time would be to get something I value more. And more than you do. What Kwesi got back didn't result in some fantastic grab of a player that shouldn't have any business falling that he would have been happy to get 10 spots earlier.
It was a predetermined plan to move back for more picks in the Top 60, no matter what. That kind of rigid thinking is a terrible place to negotiate from.
OK, I hate the trade. Enough of that. I do quibble with the notion that somehow Minnesota should have come away with multiple Starters. Where, exactly?
Peterson and Dantzler are the Starting CBs. Only Garden or Stingley could have displaced one of them and that turned out to never be an even remotely possible scenario. No ILBs were going to displace Hicks or Kendricks. No Edge was going to edge Hunter or Z. The IDL is one of the few areas with decent depth on the whole Team. OT? Nope. WR? Nope. TE? Nope. RB? Nope. Center, well my favorite went in the 1st, so yeah. QB? Don't get me started.
Safety. Right Guard. And really Outside CB3 since Dantzler always misses snaps. Those were the only realistic spots other than Center that early picks could push to be Starters as Rookies.
Cine is a much, much better prospect than Cam Bynum. Kid is a player. Gotta keep the hits clean and get a tad thicker to stay healthy, but I love the pairing with Smith. And I also love that both Lewis and Cam can cover the Slot. Meaning you can roll with having both of them on the field along with Harry when in Nickel. That immediately improves the run defense. Even if Sullivan is great against the run as a Slot CB he ain't gonna be as good as Cene or Bynum.
And now Safety is hopefully set for several years to come after this season, which is likely Smith's last in purple.
That's what I wanted in this Draft. Depth for injuries on a paper-thin, top-heavy Roster. Which it frankly has been for several years now. Depth and planning for the future.
As much as I like the Cene pick I absolutely love the Booth selection. Many here said pre-draft that they would be fine with a trade back into the 20s from #12 and taking Booth or Elam. Imagine getting him at #42!. Now skip the part of your daydream where Kwesi got fleeced along the way so you don't throw up a little in your mouth.
I personally had Booth as the #3 overall CB on my Board. Just ahead of Elam. And way ahead of midget baby T-Rex arms McPuppy. Injury concerns? How'd that affect Stingley's stock? I also really trust this new Athletic Trainer. Much more so than the last one.
Andrew will push Cam Dantzler. To be more consistent and to stay more available. And he replaces Peterson next year.
2 picks, 2 positions with zero depth in case of injuries that also desperately needed a Starter for 2023 covered. OK. Faith in humanity restored what's up next?
Um, what now? A 3rd/4thish Round pick RG with no projection to Center taken in the 2nd? With Edges sitting there like Jackson and Bonitto? WTH?
I'm not here to discuss anything but the Player. I had a high 4th grade on him. Not a great RAS. It was fun to watch Lou Riddick and Mel Kiper carping over whether it was too high. I like Riddick and enjoyed his enthusiastic endorsement of the player.
But I'm not taking him or the position at that spot. It strikes me as flat-out bizarre assett allocation. Why sign J. Davis and Reed while inheriting W. Davis and then select yet another RG?
Especially considering Minnesota had invested two 1sts, two 2nds and a 3rd before the NR took over. And with both Kwesi and Kevin coming from organizations that tend not to pick IOL early.
This leads me to posit something that will come up again with the very next pick: Kwesi is actively looking to move on from certain existing depth players.
I don't see how Wyatt Davis makes the Roster unless he either straight up beats out J. Davis, Reed AND Ingram in Training Camp. Unlikely, not unpossible, OR he's getting a look at Center, which is also not very likely. O'Connell seems to truly be invested in seeing what he can get out of Bradbury this year for some inscrutable reason.
So the move seems specifically made to replace an existing depth piece that apparently doesn't fit the vision of the NR.
The next pick seems to double down on my hypothesis with Brian Awesomewow. Maybe a smidge higher. But 100% a 1 for 1 replacement of Surratt. Or maybe Dye. Undersized, speedy sideline to sideline ILBs that can cover are a staple in Teams that play a Base 4-2-5 with plenty of 3-4.
The Training Staff will thicken him up a tad and I fully expect him to replace Kendricks sooner than later. Would have been nice to get a future replacement for Hicks as I don't see another stout ILB like him on the Team currently. But I understand the desire to not count on Surratt or Dye.
Akayleb Evans in the 4th is fine. I'm so ready for Kris Boyd to not be a Minnesota Viking any longer and this kid has some upside and could make it happen. Plus, there really wasn't anyone else available that I cared about. I don't feel like all the maneuvering just to end up with this kid was justified. Just felt like moves for the sake of making moves.
The only positive of it was that Kwesi clearly wasn't trying to stock up 6ths and 7ths, so we got that going for us just like Carl Spackler has the Dalai Lama's gift of knowing he'll reach total consciousness on his deathbed. Nice to know. Doesn't do anything for me today.
In the Dart Throw Rounds Otomewo looks like decent competition for Watts only he's the one better at the run and needs to get better at rushing the passer instead of vice versa. Chandler pushes Nwongwu to replace Mattison next year (and hopefully Cook in 2). Lowe maybe pushes Udoh (or more likely Brandel). Nailor pushes ISM (and likely doesn't make the Roster since I'm an unabashed ISM homer). Muse pushes Davidson. And the somewhat interesting UDFA Vilain pushes Wellekes, Jones Janarius Robinson for developmental Edge. I'd like to see Robinson add a little more weight and be more of a 5T/3-4 DE, though.
Over all I really like addressing the huge need for a 3rd Outside CB with Booth, whom I think will play a lot. I also really like the selection of Cene, whom I also think will play a lot, just not for injuries like Booth will. There were some nice picks to replace untested or underperforming depth pieces that Kwesi and Kevin didn't see as part of the future.
If you showed me this haul pre-draft I would have liked it. Would have wanted competition for Bradbury but I've been resigned to that not being a thing so not too mad about it. Also not happy to see no strong competition for first Edge off the bench if Z or Hunter miss time.
That Guard at a position with 3 dudes already competing to start instead of a clear upgrade over Wonnum (booo!), Jones (meh) and Willekes (quietly ever slightly so optimistic for no defendable reason) doesn't sit well with me from a value and asset allocation perspective.
And the 'how they got there' of it all bugs me too. 1 awful trade. 1 pretty darn good trade. Something like 9 other moves that amounted to not so much in the end.
The TL:DR of it all is that this Draft is hovering between a B- to C+ range. If Cene and Booth are who I think they are (dammit!) AND one of Asamoah, Evans or Ingram pans out it's definitely a B or better. And the competition for depth spots certainly looks at least a little better if not a decent amount better.
The only way it ever gets to an A for me is if this Rookie Group yields 4 Starters with all of them being League Average and 1 occasionally being in the conversation for 3rd Team All Pro (is that really a thing?).
Yes, only an A even if 4 Starters emerge. Which would be a Home Run in any other situation. That's how negatively the 1st Round Trade will haunt this Draft for me. As well as passing on Edge for a 30th body to add to the Royal Rumble of a Right Guard competition coming up. And a seemingly endless number of moves that didn't amount to anything that legitimately moved the needle.
So I will leave you in my most Bilbo-esque fashion: subtly insulting some of you and then donning my completely benign, harmless, totally safe ring of invisibility and vanishing.......
I'm not going to use this post to judge whether the NR views things the same way I do. That's unpossible, as my boy Ralphie would say. It certainly appears they agree with MCardell that the WR Corps is fine. I have zero problem with them passing on him.
I also have zero problem with them passing on my guy Jermaine Johnson. It was very clear that the League had a different impression of him than the Draft Analyst Community, same as with the QBs.
I have more of a problem passing on Hamilton. But it's entirely possible that those slow Combine and Pro Day times scared them off. Or maybe Donatell didn't think Kyle would be a good scheme fit. Whatever.
What I'm not ever going to be good with is pre-deciding you're going to take any offer, even if it's a lowball one. And that is exactly what I believe happened Thursday. I negotiate salaries with candidates we're wanting to hire for a living. When someone shoots me a Top of the Salary Range request I don't say yes because I've already decided I have to get this guy hired no matter what. I counter lower in the range. Negotiating then happens and we get to a deal. 0r I move on to the next candidate.
Kwesi took the first/maybe the only offer. When I first saw the trade I was certain there was a 2023 2nd in there. Not as good as a 1st but close enough considering where Detroit usually picks. Maybe that was a bit of wishful thinking as far as value. Well, then surely another 3rd this year, even a late one. No? Well alrighty, then. Gotta be an early 4th in there, right? Bueller? Bueller? Bueller?
One of my Cardinal sins is getting negative value back on the Rich Hill pick value chart in the early Rounds. You want something I have? Better meet my asking price. I collect vintage porcelain signs and neon clocks like you see on American Pickers. Why would I sell you something out of my collection for less than it is worth?
The only time would be to get something I value more. And more than you do. What Kwesi got back didn't result in some fantastic grab of a player that shouldn't have any business falling that he would have been happy to get 10 spots earlier.
It was a predetermined plan to move back for more picks in the Top 60, no matter what. That kind of rigid thinking is a terrible place to negotiate from.
OK, I hate the trade. Enough of that. I do quibble with the notion that somehow Minnesota should have come away with multiple Starters. Where, exactly?
Peterson and Dantzler are the Starting CBs. Only Garden or Stingley could have displaced one of them and that turned out to never be an even remotely possible scenario. No ILBs were going to displace Hicks or Kendricks. No Edge was going to edge Hunter or Z. The IDL is one of the few areas with decent depth on the whole Team. OT? Nope. WR? Nope. TE? Nope. RB? Nope. Center, well my favorite went in the 1st, so yeah. QB? Don't get me started.
Safety. Right Guard. And really Outside CB3 since Dantzler always misses snaps. Those were the only realistic spots other than Center that early picks could push to be Starters as Rookies.
Cine is a much, much better prospect than Cam Bynum. Kid is a player. Gotta keep the hits clean and get a tad thicker to stay healthy, but I love the pairing with Smith. And I also love that both Lewis and Cam can cover the Slot. Meaning you can roll with having both of them on the field along with Harry when in Nickel. That immediately improves the run defense. Even if Sullivan is great against the run as a Slot CB he ain't gonna be as good as Cene or Bynum.
And now Safety is hopefully set for several years to come after this season, which is likely Smith's last in purple.
That's what I wanted in this Draft. Depth for injuries on a paper-thin, top-heavy Roster. Which it frankly has been for several years now. Depth and planning for the future.
As much as I like the Cene pick I absolutely love the Booth selection. Many here said pre-draft that they would be fine with a trade back into the 20s from #12 and taking Booth or Elam. Imagine getting him at #42!. Now skip the part of your daydream where Kwesi got fleeced along the way so you don't throw up a little in your mouth.
I personally had Booth as the #3 overall CB on my Board. Just ahead of Elam. And way ahead of midget baby T-Rex arms McPuppy. Injury concerns? How'd that affect Stingley's stock? I also really trust this new Athletic Trainer. Much more so than the last one.
Andrew will push Cam Dantzler. To be more consistent and to stay more available. And he replaces Peterson next year.
2 picks, 2 positions with zero depth in case of injuries that also desperately needed a Starter for 2023 covered. OK. Faith in humanity restored what's up next?
Um, what now? A 3rd/4thish Round pick RG with no projection to Center taken in the 2nd? With Edges sitting there like Jackson and Bonitto? WTH?
I'm not here to discuss anything but the Player. I had a high 4th grade on him. Not a great RAS. It was fun to watch Lou Riddick and Mel Kiper carping over whether it was too high. I like Riddick and enjoyed his enthusiastic endorsement of the player.
But I'm not taking him or the position at that spot. It strikes me as flat-out bizarre assett allocation. Why sign J. Davis and Reed while inheriting W. Davis and then select yet another RG?
Especially considering Minnesota had invested two 1sts, two 2nds and a 3rd before the NR took over. And with both Kwesi and Kevin coming from organizations that tend not to pick IOL early.
This leads me to posit something that will come up again with the very next pick: Kwesi is actively looking to move on from certain existing depth players.
I don't see how Wyatt Davis makes the Roster unless he either straight up beats out J. Davis, Reed AND Ingram in Training Camp. Unlikely, not unpossible, OR he's getting a look at Center, which is also not very likely. O'Connell seems to truly be invested in seeing what he can get out of Bradbury this year for some inscrutable reason.
So the move seems specifically made to replace an existing depth piece that apparently doesn't fit the vision of the NR.
The next pick seems to double down on my hypothesis with Brian Awesomewow. Maybe a smidge higher. But 100% a 1 for 1 replacement of Surratt. Or maybe Dye. Undersized, speedy sideline to sideline ILBs that can cover are a staple in Teams that play a Base 4-2-5 with plenty of 3-4.
The Training Staff will thicken him up a tad and I fully expect him to replace Kendricks sooner than later. Would have been nice to get a future replacement for Hicks as I don't see another stout ILB like him on the Team currently. But I understand the desire to not count on Surratt or Dye.
Akayleb Evans in the 4th is fine. I'm so ready for Kris Boyd to not be a Minnesota Viking any longer and this kid has some upside and could make it happen. Plus, there really wasn't anyone else available that I cared about. I don't feel like all the maneuvering just to end up with this kid was justified. Just felt like moves for the sake of making moves.
The only positive of it was that Kwesi clearly wasn't trying to stock up 6ths and 7ths, so we got that going for us just like Carl Spackler has the Dalai Lama's gift of knowing he'll reach total consciousness on his deathbed. Nice to know. Doesn't do anything for me today.
In the Dart Throw Rounds Otomewo looks like decent competition for Watts only he's the one better at the run and needs to get better at rushing the passer instead of vice versa. Chandler pushes Nwongwu to replace Mattison next year (and hopefully Cook in 2). Lowe maybe pushes Udoh (or more likely Brandel). Nailor pushes ISM (and likely doesn't make the Roster since I'm an unabashed ISM homer). Muse pushes Davidson. And the somewhat interesting UDFA Vilain pushes Wellekes, Jones Janarius Robinson for developmental Edge. I'd like to see Robinson add a little more weight and be more of a 5T/3-4 DE, though.
Over all I really like addressing the huge need for a 3rd Outside CB with Booth, whom I think will play a lot. I also really like the selection of Cene, whom I also think will play a lot, just not for injuries like Booth will. There were some nice picks to replace untested or underperforming depth pieces that Kwesi and Kevin didn't see as part of the future.
If you showed me this haul pre-draft I would have liked it. Would have wanted competition for Bradbury but I've been resigned to that not being a thing so not too mad about it. Also not happy to see no strong competition for first Edge off the bench if Z or Hunter miss time.
That Guard at a position with 3 dudes already competing to start instead of a clear upgrade over Wonnum (booo!), Jones (meh) and Willekes (quietly ever slightly so optimistic for no defendable reason) doesn't sit well with me from a value and asset allocation perspective.
And the 'how they got there' of it all bugs me too. 1 awful trade. 1 pretty darn good trade. Something like 9 other moves that amounted to not so much in the end.
The TL:DR of it all is that this Draft is hovering between a B- to C+ range. If Cene and Booth are who I think they are (dammit!) AND one of Asamoah, Evans or Ingram pans out it's definitely a B or better. And the competition for depth spots certainly looks at least a little better if not a decent amount better.
The only way it ever gets to an A for me is if this Rookie Group yields 4 Starters with all of them being League Average and 1 occasionally being in the conversation for 3rd Team All Pro (is that really a thing?).
Yes, only an A even if 4 Starters emerge. Which would be a Home Run in any other situation. That's how negatively the 1st Round Trade will haunt this Draft for me. As well as passing on Edge for a 30th body to add to the Royal Rumble of a Right Guard competition coming up. And a seemingly endless number of moves that didn't amount to anything that legitimately moved the needle.
So I will leave you in my most Bilbo-esque fashion: subtly insulting some of you and then donning my completely benign, harmless, totally safe ring of invisibility and vanishing.......
... and neither is this Chris guy.