How do you grade the Vikings' 2022 draft?
May 2, 2022 9:57:51 GMT -6
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Reignman, Funkytown, and 3 more like this
Post by MidwinterViking on May 2, 2022 9:57:51 GMT -6
This is the most contradictory statement I can imagine for someone who is good at analytics:
"The charts are right to place a premium on high picks because of the scarcity of elite players"
BUT
"It’s not about the charts, it's about how much happiness you feel"
I get that he is using the term "happiness" in the context of measurement of economic outcomes (and probably not "I'm just happy to be here and I hope both teams have fun"), but those two positions don't work together.
- There is a premium on high picks, so teams should be happy to have them
- Every other team trading down received a premium price.
- Every other team trading up was happy to pay that premium price for the premium draft position.
- Economic "happiness" isn't based on the opinion of 1 actor, it's about the consensus opinion of a population. And the population of the NFL teams says a team shouldn't be happy giving up that value of scarcity for free.
Kwesi could have said: "We had 5 guys we wanted at 12, they were all gone. At that point we thought the guys between 12 and 70 were all really close, so any deal that gets us 3 for 2 in that range is gold. The other team that traded down were only getting 4th and 5th rounders - when we expected the starting quality players would be gone - so it makes sense they had to include more points." I could believe that and it would make sense to have a dynamic trade chart.
My only consolation is that Kwesi is saying almost exactly what I'd say if I knew: I was really happy with the players I got AND I knew I had messed up and should have valued that pick higher. If he knows that he got the players he needs to make the team better, then pick value becomes more academic than practical. And if that trade has taught him that lesson without costing the them any players they wanted, then things will be fine.